Padres vs. Dodgers Moneyline Pick 9/4/22

by | Sep 4, 2022 | mlb

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Date: Sunday September 4th, 07:08 ET

Location: Dodger Stadium

TV: ESPN

Money Line: Padres +134 / Dodgers -160 (BAS - ALWAYS has the lowest priced favorites and highest paying underdogs. THIS MATTERS!)

Total Line: 9.0

STARTING PITCHING

San Diego: Mike Clevinger (5-5, 3.59)
Los Angeles: Caleb Ferguson (1-0, 1.85)

Padres Projected Lineup

Jake Cronenworth 2B
Jurickson Profar LF
Brandon Drury 1B
Juan Soto RF
Wil Myers 1B
Manny Machado 3B
Austin Nola C
Josh Bell 1B
Ha-seong Kim SS
Mike Clevinger P

Dodgers Projected Lineup

Gavin Lux 2B
Chris Taylor SS
Max Muncy 2B
Mookie Betts RF
Justin Turner 3B
Cody Bellinger CF
Will Smith C
Freddie Freeman 1B
Trea Turner SS
Caleb Ferguson P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

San Diego Padres: 74-60-0 SU / OU 61-68-5 / Run Line W/L 59-75-0
Los Angeles Dodgers: 91-41-0 SU / OU 55-66-11 / Run Line W/L 81-51-0

The Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres on Sunday September 4th at Dodger Stadium. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:08 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Los Angeles as the favorite (-160), with an OU line set at 9.0.

Recent Form

The Padres come into this matchup having suffered an 11-run loss to the LA Dodgers (12-1). In the loss, San Diego’s pitchers gave up 12 runs on 13 hits. Offensively, they finished with just 1 run on 2 hits. San Diego’s loss came as the underdog, getting 190.0 on the moneyline. This game went over the posted over-under line of 8.5 runs. On the season, San Diego’s over-under record is 61-68-5.

The Padres are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 4-1 over their last 5 games. Even with this record, in these games, their scoring differential is just -2. San Diego’s offense heads into action averaging 4.6 runs per game in their last 5 contests. Similar to their season average of 4.43. So far, San Diego has won over half of their 42 series played, going 21-14-7.

In their last game, the Los Angeles Dodgers picked up an 11-run win over the Padres by a score of 12-1. In the winning effort, the team’s pitchers held the Padres to 1 run and 2 hits. At the plate, the Dodgers scored 12 times on 13 hits. In the game, Los Angeles was able to take care of business as they were the favorite at -230.0. So far, the team has won 70.0% of the games in which they were favored. The Dodgers and Padres went over the run total line set at 8.5 runs. Against the run total, Los Angeles is just 55-66-11.

The Dodgers come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. Even though Los Angeles has notched just 2 in their last 5 games, they still have a positive run differential in this stretch (+3). If Los Angeles is going to pick up their play, they need to improve their offensive performance. Over their last 5 contests, they are averaging just 4.2 runs per game, compared to a season average of 5.36. On the season, Los Angeles has won more than half of their series, going 29-10-3.

Pitching Matchup

Mike Clevinger gets the start for the Padres, with an overall record of 5-5. To date, Clevinger has an ERA of 3.59 while lasting an average of 5.01 innings per appearance. Across his previous outings, opponents are batting 0.219 against Clevinger. Opponents have been able to hit for power against Clevinger, as he has HR/9 figure of 1.27. On the season, Mike Clevinger has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 20.0%. This includes a per game average of 4.29 K’s per game. Command has been a problem for Clevinger, as he is giving up 2.85 walks per outing.

Even though Los Angeles will be turning to Caleb Ferguson as their starter, it will surely be a by-committee approach on Sunday. So far, Ferguson has not pitched more than 1 inning in a single game, exclusively working out of the bullpen. In his last outing, the left-hander was tagged for 2 earned runs and gave up 3 hits in just 1 inning of work.

San Diego vs Los Angeles History

Today’s matchup between the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers will be their 13th meeting of the season. Currently, Los Angeles is winning the season series 9-3. The over-under record in this series sits at 4-6. The average run total in these games is 8.21 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 5.0 runs. Dating back to last season, the Los Angeles picked up 12 wins compared to 7, taking the season series. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 10-8. Last year, the Padres and Dodgers averaged 8.21 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.84 runs per contest.

Betting Trends

  • San Diego is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
  • San Diego is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
  • LA Dodgers is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against San Diego
  • LA Dodgers is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games when playing San Diego

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Heading into Sunday’s matchup between San Diego and Los Angeles, the Dodgers are the favorite on the moneyline. However, I expect the Padres bats to break through against what will likely be several Dodgers pitchers out of the pen. With Mike Clevinger on the mound, look for San Diego to pull off the upset.

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