MLB Baseball Picks

The bullpen gap between the Phillies and Angels carries real weight here — Philadelphia’s IL situation complicates late innings, but Los Angeles’s relief depth has been the shakier unit when games tighten. The Phillies sit at -142 on the moneyline while the run line flips to +120, a pricing split that signals the market sees this as a likely win but not a blowout. Find out which way this one goes.

Progressive Field’s 0.98 park factor nudges run scoring down — and tonight it’s backing two starters, Wacha and Bibee, who combine elite command with weak-contact profiles rather than swing-and-miss volume. The total is parked at 8.0, a number that still reflects Kansas City’s recent run-scoring binge against a significantly inferior Toronto rotation. See how this one plays out.

Scott’s 11.18 K/9 against a Houston lineup built to punish command lapses is a real mismatch — but Brown’s 43 walks in just 74.1 innings puts the free-pass problem squarely on the other side. The Mets are listed at +114 in a game the projected scoring puts at a near coin flip. Find out which way this one goes.

Oakland’s -185 run differential over 134 games is the kind of number that exposes how hollow a recent hot streak can be. The Orioles are priced at -143 on the moneyline — steep enough that the edge on the mound doesn’t fully clear the bar as a standalone. See how this one plays out.

The bullpen gap between these two teams is real — Miami’s relief corps is thinned by IL moves, but it’s Kent’s systemic command breakdown that sets the table first. A 2.11 WHIP and 11 walks in 12.1 innings means the Marlins lineup will see runners and multi-pitch counts from the jump, while Washington’s run-scoring baseline sits at 5.18 per game against a total of 8.5. The edge is explained inside.

Peterson’s 3.73 BB/9 and Lowder’s 1.26 HR/9 represent two distinct failure modes that both point toward the same run environment. The over is priced at -101 against a Cubs bullpen missing seven relievers — a near-even price on what the models project as 9.7 combined runs. The pick is inside.

Skubal vs. Anderson is a clearer mismatch than the posted 7.5 total implies. The under is priced at -120 while Detroit’s projection assumes a lineup that no longer exists — three starting outfielders are out, and the 8.8 combined run expectation doesn’t fully account for that depth loss against a 0.95 WHIP starter. The analysis is inside.

Joe Jensen breaks down Friday’s Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos preseason Week 3 finale with a spread play on the Vikings getting a big number as road underdogs.

Citi Field’s 0.97 park factor leans pitcher-friendly — and that’s before Jacob Misiorowski (1.68 ERA, 0.76 WHIP) takes the ball against a Mets lineup stripped of Soto, Vientos, and Polanco. The total is posted at 7.0 with the under sitting at near even money (-103), a price that treats this like a balanced run environment when the matchup says otherwise. See how this one plays out.

The bullpen gap between these two teams is real, but the bigger separation lives in the rotation — Roupp’s recent 3.58 ERA over 32.2 innings versus Cabrera’s 5.60 ERA is not noise. The moneyline is sitting at -114 Diamondbacks and -106 Giants, treating a legitimate pitching mismatch like a 50/50 proposition. The full read is inside.