Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals Pick – 5/20/18

Philadelphia (2nd – NL East) at St. Louis (3rd – NL Central)
Where: Busch Stadium
When: May 20, 2018 2:15PM EST
Moneyline: PHI -117 / STL +107
Over/Under: 8.5
By expert handicapper Rich Crew

The Cardinals will try to even up the series today when they play the final game of a four-game set at Busch Stadium against the Phillies. The MLB betting board lists Philadelphia as a consensus -117 road favorite with the O/U line offered at most betting sites at 7.5 runs.

In the most recent in this series, St. Louis fought hard to take a 6-5 lead in the bottom of the seventh, but the Phillies came back with two runs in the top of the eighth and prevailed. The win by Philadelphia was their fourth in the last five games and eighth in their last ten. The loss by St. Louis was their fifth over the last seven games overall and fourth in their previous five at Busch.

St. Louis dominated this series in 2017 winning all but the finale in Philly going 5-1 on the campaign. The total favored the UNDER last season by a 3-2 margin, but back to back OVERs this time around have closed the gap to 5-4 since the start of the 2017 season.

Pitching Match-Up

Aaron Nola (R): The Phillies give the ball to Aaron Nola to make his tenth start of this campaign. He’s coming off of a nice six inning performance where he allowed one run on a homer and scattered eight other hits in a 4-2 win by Philadelphia. The quality start was his seventh consecutive, and he picked up the win in the game for his fifth straight. Nola has made three career starts against the Cardinals allowing four runs in 19 1/3 innings.

Jack Flaherty (R): The Cards righty has three starts on the season allowing five runs over 15 2/3 innings pitched picking up two no-decisions and getting tagged with one loss. This outing will be his first home start of 2018 and the first time that he has faced the Phillies.

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Betting Trends

  • Philadelphia is 10-2 versus the run line in its last 12 games
  • Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last five games
  • Philadelphia is 5-1 vs. the run line in its previous six games on the road
  • St. Louis is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games at home
  • St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last five games at home

Public Money

The public has taken a liking to the Phillies with 64% of the money line betting being placed on the visitor. The total line wagering shows a strong lean to the OVER with 55% of the wagering landing on that side of the line.

Phillies at Cardinals Prediction 5/20/18

In my opinion, the money line offered up on this game is a little out of whack. On paper, the Phillies have the much superior starter with Aaron Nola bringing a sub .200 ERA and personal five-game win streak to the mound this afternoon. He has made four starts on the road this season and while he does have only a 50% quality start ratio the two that he didn’t record a QS came in his first two outings of the season where he pitched well but didn’t make it through six innings. On the season Nola has not allowed a team to score higher than three runs in any of his nine starts. His counterpart Jack Flaherty has been a spot starter this season and taking that into consideration he has pitched adequately going at least five innings in all three outings and allowing no more than three runs in any start.

Offensively Philadelphia also holds the edge in current form scoring a minimum of four runs in 10 of their last 11 contests. St. Louis has picked up the scoring in their previous two but had failed to surpass three runs in four of their previous five. Games aren’t won on paper, but I think we have enough to justify laying the small number on the visitor in this spot.

Crew’s Pick: Take the Philadelphia Phillies -117 at 5Dimes to get the best line on this game and guys if you don’t have an account here, now is the time to save money all season long with this betting shop’s overnight nickel lines and dime line betting on game day!