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Pick Orioles Over Yankees For Big Value

Last updated Aug 1, 2018 | mlb

Time: 7:05 PM ET
Venue: Yankee Stadium
Location: New York, New York
TV: YES Network
Moneyline: Baltimore (+285) / New York (-315)
Over/Under: 9

It’s an American League East battle in the Bronx Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium. The Baltimore Orioles head north to take on the New York Yankees. This will be the 11th meeting of 19 on the year between these divisional foes. Thru 10 games, the series is knotted at five a piece. The Yankees outscored the Orioles 60-42 thru the first 10 contests. However, Baltimore’s 3-1 at Yankees Stadium this year. They’ve outscored the Bronx Bombers 23-20 on their home field thus far. Baltimore brings a three-game winning streak into this one, while the Yankees are winners in back-to-back decisions. Rookie right-hander Yefry Ramirez gets the start for the O’s, while veteran Masahiro Tanaka gets the nod for the hometown Yanks.

Schoop and O’s earn a turkey

Second baseman Jonathan Schoop (.244 AVG, 17 HR, 40 RBI & .273 OBP) has led the recent charge for the lowly Birds. This past week, Schoop’s gone 11 for 29 (.379) with five home runs and 13 RBI. Consequently, his team’s won three straight games and look to tie a season-high four-game winning streak Tuesday night in the Bronx. Baltimore’s rattled off three consecutive decisive victories against the Tampa Bay Rays (15-5, 11-2 & 11-5). The O’s have outscored their opponent 37-12 in the past three contests.

Overall, the Orioles are 32-74 (.302) this year which is the worst record in MLB. They’re currently in fifth place in the AL East Standings, 41.5 games behind first-place Boston. Baltimore’s 407 runs scored is 14th in the AL and their 548 runs against is 13th in the AL. Consequently, their -141 run-differential is tied for 14th in the American League. On the road, the O’s are 12-39 (.235) which is the worst road record in MLB. 12 wins is five less than the next worst: Kansas City (17) and Chicago White Sox (17).

Judge-less Yanks win back-to-back vs. KC

Aaron Judge (.285 AVG, 26 HR, 61 RBI & .398 OBP) is saddled on the disabled-list with a chip fracture in his right wrist. In his absence, the Bronx Bombers have won back-to-back games. However, these wins came against the lowly Kansas City Royals (5-4 & 6-3). Judge’s absence will surely be missed, and he can’t come back soon enough for a Yankees squad that’s in the middle of a division battle with the Red Sox. Currently, the Yanks are in second place in the AL East Standings just 5.5 games behind Boston.

Overall, the Yankees are 67-37 (.644) this year. At home, the Bronx Bombers are one of the best in the business. Their 37 wins at Yankee Stadium are tied for the most home wins in the League with bitter rival Boston. Offensively, the Yankees are second-best in the AL with 540 runs scored. Their pitching staff has been top notch as well, allowing just 404 runs (3rd AL) thus far. New York’s +136 run-differential is third-best in the American League.

Ramirez vs. Tanaka

Rookie righty Yefry Ramirez is slated to toe the rubber for the visiting O’s. In the first six starts of his career, Ramirez is 1-3 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. The 24 year old Dominican has an impressive 3:1 strikeouts to walks ratio this season. Ramirez faced the Yankees on July 9th, allowing four earned runs on nine hits in a 10-2 loss. Consequently, his career numbers versus the Yankees are a 9.00 ERA and 2.75 WHIP. However, the young rook has shown flashes of brilliance lately. In his last two starts, Ramirez is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He earned the first win of his career on July 24th, allowing three earned runs over five innings in a 7-6 victory over the MLB-leading Boston Red Sox.

Masahiro Tanaka (8-2, 4.09 ERA & 1.06 WHIP) starts for the Yankees, and he hasn’t registered a loss since April 17th versus the Miami Marlins. In his last 12 starts, Tanaka’s gone 6-0 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Tanaka’s face Baltimore three times this season, accruing a 1-1 record with a 5.63 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. In 11 career starts against Baltimore, Tanaka’s gone 3-3 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.

Where’s the value?

The Yankees are an awfully heavy favorite against a team they’ve split 10 meetings with this season. At Yankee Stadium, the O’s are 3-1 and have outscored the Yanks 23-20. According to the line from most bookmakers, New York would need to win 75.9% of the time to justify a bet on them. There’s negative-value in taking the banged-up Bronx Bombers here, as we believe this game is a complete toss-up. With the O’s pegged a +285 underdog, the O’s would need to win this one 26% of the time to make betting on them profitable. Since we believe this game to be a toss-up, there’s a 24% edge in taking the Baltimore Orioles on the money line here. Baltimore’s one of the worst teams in the League, but they’re swinging hot bats right now. Factor in that they have a better record against the Yankees than any other club in MLB, and you have a recipe for a monumental sheep slaughter in this one. Either roll the dice and take a stab on the O’s as colossal underdogs, or avoid this one altogether because the price isn’t right taking the Yankees here.

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