Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Analysis & ML Pick

by | Last updated Aug 26, 2022 | mlb

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Date: Monday August 8th, 09:40 ET

Location: Chase Field

TV: ATT SportsNet-PIT

Money Line: Pirates +195 / Diamondbacks -240

Total Line: 8.0


Pittsburgh: Tyler Beede (1-1, 3.66)
Arizona: Zac Gallen (6-2, 3.4)

Pirates Projected Lineup

Bligh Madris 1B
Cal Mitchell RF
Oneil Cruz SS
Josh VanMeter 1B
Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B
Jason Delay C
Ben Gamel RF
Kevin Newman SS
Bryan Reynolds CF
Tyler Beede P

Diamondbacks Projected Lineup

Seth Beer 1B
Carson Kelly C
Daulton Varsho RF
Jake McCarthy LF
Josh Rojas 3B
Geraldo Perdomo SS
Ketel Marte 2B
Christian Walker 1B
Alek Thomas CF
Zac Gallen P


Pittsburgh Pirates: 44-64-0 SU / OU 45-55-8 / Run Line W/L 57-51-0
Arizona Diamondbacks: 48-59-0 SU / OU 49-54-4 / Run Line W/L 61-46-0

The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday, August 8th at Chase Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 09:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Arizona as the favorite (-240), with an OU line set at 8.0.

Recent Form

The Pittsburgh Pirates are coming off a 7-run win over the Orioles by a score of 8-1. Overall, the team’s pitching staff limited the Orioles to 1 run on 4 hits. The Pirates lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 9 hits, leading to 8 runs. Pittsburgh picked up the win, despite getting 160.0 on the moneyline. When looking at the over-under result, the Pirates and Orioles matched the line set at 9.0 runs. At 45-55-8, Pittsburgh has combined to stay below the over-under betting lines in over half of their games.

In the Pirates’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 3-2. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at +5. A key to their recent success has been an offense averaging 4.8 runs per game, compared to their season average of 3.63. Pittsburgh’s overall series record is just 9-19-7.

Arizona is coming off a 2 run win over the Rockies (6-4). For the game, the pitching staff held the Rockies to 4 runs on 10 hits. At the plate, the Diamondbacks scored 6 times on 9 hits. Arizona picked up the win while being favored at -160.0. So far, the team has won 52.0% of the games in which they were favored. In terms of the over-under, the Diamondbacks and Rockies combined to surpass the line of 9.0 runs. So far, Arizona has an over-under record of just 49-54-4.

Across their last 5 contests, the Diamondbacks are above .500, going 3-2. Their recent success is backed by an average scoring margin of +2 (last 5). Arizona has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 4.8 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 4.25. Arizona has a below .500 series record of just 12-17-5.

Pitching Matchup

Pittsburgh will turn to Tyler Beede as their starting pitcher vs Arizona. So far, Beede is 1-1 with a 3.66 ERA. This mark has come while making 18 appearances. However, this will only be his 2nd start of the year. In his 32 innings of action, Beede has given up just 2 home runs.

Zac Gallen gets the start for the Diamondbacks, with an overall record of 6-2. To date, Gallen has an ERA of 3.4 while lasting an average of 5.55 innings per appearance. Through 20 outings, opposing teams have combined for a batting average of 0.208. Gallen is giving up home runs at a rate similar to the league average, allowing 0.89 per 9 innings. On the season, Zac Gallen has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 23.0%. This has led to an average of 5.3 K’s per game. Gallen comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 2.59 free passes per outing.

Pittsburgh vs Arizona History

Today’s matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Arizona Diamondbacks will be their 4th meeting of the season. Pittsburgh has the lead in the series at 2-1. Through 3 games, the series over-under record is 1-2, with the average run total sitting at 9.5 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 2.0 runs. Dating back to last season, Arizona picked up 4 wins compared to 2, taking the season series. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 3-3, with the average run total being 9.5 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 2.5 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • Pittsburgh i 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of Pittsburgh’s last 10 games when playing on the road against Arizona
  • Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
  • Arizona is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Leading up to Monday’s National League matchup, the Pirates have been playing well of late, but take on Zac Gallen and his WHIP of just 1.04. Look for Pittsburgh to struggle against the Arizona right-hander, as they are facing a quick cross-country turnaround. I like the Diamondbacks on the moneyline.

Free MLB Pick: Arizona Moneyline
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Will Rodgers Sports HandicapperI won my last two MLB playoff picks and am going for three straight on Friday in Game 1 of the World Series! I had a sparkling run down the stretch (in the regular season), and look to finish in the same fashion in the postseason. Hop on board now!