Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, September 27, 2026
4:25 PM ET, Maracanã Stadium (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
Baltimore is a 3.5-point favorite over Dallas in the NFL’s international game with a total of 52.5. My play is the Over.
The total is the highest on the entire Week 3 NFL board at 52.5. It opened at 50.5 and has moved up two points as both public and sharp money continues to pile on the Over side. That’s a specific market signal: sharp bettors and the general public agree that this game will produce more scoring than the initial number suggested.
The offensive efficiency numbers on both sides make it obvious why. Dallas ranks 4th in the NFL in EPA per play and offensive success rate. Baltimore ranks 6th in EPA per play and 3rd in offensive success rate. That’s the two most efficient offenses in the league facing each other, and both have elite quarterbacks (Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott) capable of picking apart defenses that have shown real vulnerabilities.
Dallas’s defense is a specific problem. They’re allowing 173.5 rushing yards per game — the type of number that means the Cowboys can’t stop the run. Derrick Henry is on the other sideline. Even at his age and with the current Ravens offensive scheme, Henry against a Dallas run defense giving up 173 yards per game will produce touchdowns. He’ll have huge runs, he’ll score in the red zone, and he’ll grind out yardage that leads to scoring drives. That translates directly into Baltimore hitting 24-30 points.
Baltimore’s defense has its own issues. Tyler Shough threw for 79.4% completion and 7.4 yards per attempt against them in Week 2. That means Prescott — a much better quarterback than Shough — will hit similar or better numbers against the Ravens. Combined with Dallas’s efficient offense and their ability to move the ball at will, the Cowboys should hit 24-28 points.
The Cowboys’ Over trend is telling. Every single Cowboys game this season has hit the Over. Both games — the Week 1 loss to New York and the Week 2 win over Washington — produced enough scoring to push over the market total. That specific pattern indicates a program where the offense produces at a rate that consistently exceeds expectations, and the defense allows enough scoring to keep totals over the number.
The head-to-head history also supports the Over. The Over has hit in 4 of the last 5 meetings between Baltimore and Dallas. When these two teams play, both offenses show up and both defenses struggle to contain each other. That’s a specific stylistic pattern that shows up regardless of individual roster changes or coaching adjustments.
The neutral-site factor at Maracanã Stadium in Brazil might be worth mentioning. Football played at a neutral international venue tends to produce games where both teams push aggressive offensive plays, and international broadcasts are optimized for entertaining, high-scoring football. That environmental factor further supports the Over.
Realistic outcomes: Ravens 30, Cowboys 27 (57 total); Cowboys 28, Ravens 27 (55 total); Ravens 34, Cowboys 24 (58 total); or Ravens 27, Cowboys 24 (51 total, under by 1.5). Three of four scenarios push the Over. The one Under scenario requires both teams to produce below their offensive averages — which contradicts both teams’ Week 1-2 performances.
Team total projections also support the play. FanDuel has the Ravens at 27.5 and the Cowboys at 24.5 — combining for exactly 52 points. Add any single scoring drive that either team produces beyond expectations and we’re comfortably over 52.5.
The Pick: Ravens/Cowboys Over 52.5
