Illinois at Ohio State
Game Prediction
Before I get to today’s pick I want to do an update on my first pick of the week, Navy/UAB Over. To recap, I started to do a write-up on the Under despite the game not fully qualifying as an NP Under. It only missed by 1/10 of a point so I was going to force fit it as a play.
But one of my strict rules for sports betting is “A game either qualifies or it doesn’t. If it’s a near miss don’t play it.”
The WAN (Widely Available Number) on the game is 51′, with most houses having extra juice on the Under. If 51 becomes the WAN it qualifies as an NP Under.
But at the end of my write up/analysis I decided to change from the Under to the Over and not break my rule about force fitting a play.
Which puts me in a bit of a precarious position.
I recommended buying the Over, but if the line does drop to 51 I’m stuck with a bet AGAINST my first NP Under spot of the season.
And as you can see from the NP Un six year record I included in my last article that’s not a position I want to be in.
I would never recommend a game that I don’t have money on myself, so regardless of wether the line moves or not I’m on the Over.
The game is set to kick off at 7:00 p.m. EST, Friday.
As of this morning, the WAN is still 51′.
I’m hoping it stays there.
All of the above, and what’s to follow, is to share my handicapping thought process, for readers that are new to ‘capping or looking to improve on their picks.
And now let me add one more piece of info to the Navy/UAB game. Yesterday I discovered that it qualifies for my T1 Under model. The current record for this spot is 9-6, which makes it a very profitable play ON at 60%.
But, I’m on the Over, due to the stats and reasons listed in my article from yesterday.
So it looks like I put myself in a bad position going against a 60% spot.
But . . .
T1 Unders were 7-1 going into last week’s play.
So while I’m not thrilled about going against a 60% play, the trend is reversing (as all trends eventually do) after going 2-5 last week.
So looking at recent trends I’m Fading a 71% spot by taking the Over.
And now, on to today’s pick.
My T1 handicap remodel has an overall record of 15-9. It’s 6-3 Ov, 9-6 Un.
Illinois/Ohio St qualifies as an Over and with the current number sitting at 53’/54 I’m going to take the Over.
(Side note – Friday’s Army/Temple game also qualifies as a T1 Over so by the time Saturday morning’s Ohio State game kicks off the spot will either be 6-4 or 7-3.)
Illinois is 3-0 Ov/Un, Ohio State is 2-1.
All three Illinois games have gone Over the total The bookies hung on Saturday’s game, and two of three Buckeye games have gone Over, too.
Last season they combined for 50 points.
With USC off to a hot start at 4-0, the 2-1 Buckeyes cannot afford another screw up like they had in Texas two weeks ago. To win the Big Ten Championship they’re probably going to have to win out for the rest of the schedule, and in explosive fashion. They’ll be able to get most of the 53′ by themselves but the Illini can score too so I’m comfortable putting my money on the Over.
My play:
Illinois/Ohio St Ov 53′
Record: 6-6
