St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves Pick – Game 5 Analysis

by | Oct 9, 2019 | mlb

St. Louis Cardinals (91-71) vs. Atlanta Braves (97-65), 10/9/19
Time: 5 pm ET Wednesday, Oct. 9
Where: SunTrust Park, Cumberland, GA
Listed Pitchers: Jack Flaherty (11-9, 2.79 ERA, 0.98 WHIP) vs. Mike Foltynewicz (9-6, 4.28, 1.20)

TV: TBS
Moneyline: Cardinals -115/Braves +105 (MLB Dimeline)

Over/Under:

After splitting the first four games of this National League divisional-round playoff series, the Braves and Cardinals meet for a deciding Game 5 Wednesday in suburban Atlanta. The Braves may own home-field advantage for this one, but they’re also lined as home dogs. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

NLDS GAME 5 Betting Odds

MLB playoff betting odds opened Atlanta and “Folty” as -110 favorites over St. Louis and Flaherty, with an over/under of eight runs. Early betting action then flipped the Cardinals into -115 chalk.

St. Louis could also be found getting around +145, giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Cardinals vs. Braves Game Set-Up

St. Louis managed a split of the first two games of this NLDS on the road, and the Braves then split the two games at Busch Stadium. Atlanta had a shot to win this series in four games Monday, leading 4-3 into the bottom of the eighth inning, but the Cardinals tied it there and won it with a run in the bottom tenth.

So the visiting teams are 2-2 in this series, as are the betting underdogs.

Atlanta finished six games ahead of the Cardinals in the regular-season standings and took the season series from St. Louis four games to two.

Game 5’s Starting Pitchers

This pitching match-up is a rematch of Game 2 of this series, a 3-0 Braves victory.

Foltynewicz, by our strict standards, is only 8/22 on quality starts this season but four for his last five. Last Friday, in Game 2, he held the Cardinals scoreless on three hits through seven innings, with seven strikeouts against zero walks, to earn the W. And over his last five starts he’s allowed just five runs and 16 hits through 32 innings, with 31 whiffs against three walks.

On the season Atlanta is 14-8 with Foltynewicz, and 13-1 over his last 14 starts!

In his first of three starts, this year against the Cardinals Foltynewicz got rocked for eight runs in less than five innings of a 14-3 Braves loss. But in his two starts against St. Louis since then he allowed just one run – none earned – and eight hits through 13 innings, with 14 strikeouts. Atlanta won those last two games.

Flaherty is 19/34 on quality starts this year and four for his last four. Last Friday, he held the Braves to three runs and eight hits through seven innings but took a tough loss. And over his last four starts, he’s allowed just four runs and 14 hits through 29 innings, with 33 K’s against five walks.

The Cardinals are 17-17 with Flaherty this year, 7-4 over his last 11 starts.

Over three starts against the Braves, this season Flaherty allowed six runs and 14 hits through 19 innings, with 21 strikeouts. St. Louis lost two of those three games, but that wasn’t his fault.

Game 5’s Batting Splits

St. Louis batted .245/.320/.412 against right-handed pitching this season.
Atlanta batted .258/.339/.451 against right-handed pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Cardinals bullpen posted a 3.82 ERA this season, along with a 1.22 WHIP, while holding opponents to a Major League-low .670 OPS. St. Louis relievers have since given up seven runs and 12 hits through 11 2/3 innings in this NLDS.

The Braves pen posted a 4.18 ERA this season and a 1.39 WHIP while allowing a .750 OPS. Since then, Atlanta relievers have allowed eight runs and 19 hits through 14 2/3 innings in this NLDS.

MLB Betting Trends

  • St. Louis finished 41-40 on the road this season.
  • St. Louis played 73-55 against right-handed starters this season.
  • Atlanta finished 50-31 at home this season.
  • Atlanta played 74-51 against right-handed starters this season.

Totals Report

  • Unders played 85-69 in Cardinals games this season.
  • Unders played 78-76 in Braves games this season.
  • Unders played 41-36 in games played at SunTrust Park this season.
  • Unders are a combined 28-24 with Foltynewicz and Flaherty this season.
  • Totals are split 2-2 in this series, as the teams have combined to score a total of 29 runs.

Free MLB Pick

We’re calling Game 5’s pitching match-up a push, and while Atlanta may own an edge with the sticks, St. Louis holds an advantage in the bullpen comparison. Ultimately, though, we like the idea of a home dog in a series-deciding game, and we never shy away from going against the public flow. So we’re betting the Braves for our free MLB pick here. Bet Game 5 for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% matching bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $1000 at MyBookie! Credit cards work there!