Tigers vs. Blue Jays Moneyline Pick

by | Jul 28, 2022 | mlb

Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays
Date: Thursday July 28th, 07:07 ET
Location: Rogers Centre
TV: Bally Sports Detroit
Money Line: Tigers +185 / Blue Jays -225
Total Line: 8.5
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STARTING PITCHING

Detroit: Tyler Alexander (2-3, 4.05)
Toronto: Yusei Kikuchi (3-5, 5.12)

Tigers Projected Lineup

Jeimer Candelario 3B
Harold Castro SS
Eric Haase C
Willi Castro RF
Jonathan Schoop 2B
Robbie Grossman LF
Miguel Cabrera 1B
Riley Greene CF
Javier Báez SS
Tyler Alexander P

Blue Jays Projected Lineup

Matt Chapman 3B
Santiago Espinal 2B
Teoscar Hernández RF
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF
Danny Jansen C
Alejandro Kirk C
Bo Bichette SS
George Springer RF
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B
Yusei Kikuchi P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Detroit Tigers: 40-59-0 SU / OU 39-55-5 / Run Line W/L 46-53-0
Toronto Blue Jays: 54-44-0 SU / OU 53-44-1 / Run Line W/L 43-55-0

The Toronto Blue Jays host the Detroit Tigers on Thursday, July 28th at Rogers Centre. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:07 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Toronto as the favorite (-225), with an OU line set at 8.5.

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Recent Form

In the Detroit Tigers’ last game, they picked up a 4-3 win over the Padres. Overall, the team’s pitching staff limited the Padres to 3 runs on 5 hits. The Tigers lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 9 hits, leading to 4 runs. Detroit picked up the win, despite getting 125.0 on the moneyline. When looking at the over-under result, the Tigers and Padres matched the line set at 7.0 runs. Even with the over-under draw, Detroit has an over-under record of just 39-55-5.

In their last 5 games, the Tigers are below .500, at 2-3. This mark has come on an average run margin of just -5. Compared to their overall average of 3.23 runs per game, the team’s offense is playing well. Over their last 5 contests, they have bumped this figure up to 5.0. Detroit’s overall series record is just 8-18-6.

Toronto will look to move on from a 5 run loss to the Cardinals, falling by the score of 6-1. Toronto’s pitching staff gave up 13 hits, leading to 6 runs for the Cardinals. At the plate, the Blue Jays only came through for 1 run on 5 hits. Toronto came away with a loss, despite being favored on the moneyline (-265.0). For the season, the team has been favored in 79 games, winning at a rate of 57.9%. Combined, the Blue Jays and Cardinals’ run total fell below the over-under line of 8.0 runs. Even still, Toronto games have still gone over the betting total over half of the time, at 53-44-1.

In their last 5 games, the Blue Jays have put together a record of 4-1. Their recent success is backed by an average scoring margin of +32 (last 5). Compared to their season average, the Blue Jays come into this game swinging the bats well, averaging 10.2 runs per game. On the season, Toronto has won more than half of their series, going 16-11-4.

Pitching Matchup

The Detroit Tigers will send Tyler Alexander to the mound with an overall record of 2-3. To date, Alexander has an ERA of 4.05 while lasting an average of 2.36 innings per appearance. Compared to other starters, the left-hander has a high BA allowed, currently sitting at 0.273. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Alexander, as he is allowing just 1.09 per 9 innings. Up to this point, Alexander has a strikeout percentage of just 13.0% and a per game average of 1.29. Throughout the season, Alexander has avoided walking batters, allowing just 2.16 per contest.

In today’s game, Toronto turns to starter Yusei Kikuchi. For the year, he has a record of 3-5. To date, Kikuchi has an ERA of 5.12 while lasting an average of 4.06 innings per appearance. Compared to other starters, the right-hander has a high BA allowed of 0.249. Home runs have been an issue for Kikuchi, as he is allowing an average of 1.94 per 9 innings pitched. Per game, Yusei Kikuchi is averaging 4.62, on a strikeout percentage of 25.0%. Kikuchi comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 5.68 free passes per outing.

Detroit vs Toronto History

For the season, the Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays will be playing their 4th game of the season. Currently, Toronto is winning the season series 2-1. The over-under record in this series sits at 1-2. The average run total in these games is 4.5 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 5.67 runs. Last year, the team’s split the season series at 3-3. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 0-6, with the average run total being 4.5 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 1.83 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Detroit’s last 10 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto’s last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Toronto’s last 10 games when playing Detroit

Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Heading into Thursday’s contest between Detroit and Toronto, the Blue Jays are the favorite to come away with the win. However, with Yusei Kikuchi on the mound, they are far from a sure thing. Leading into the game, Kikuchi has a WHIP of 1.57 and is coming off an outing in which he issued 5 walks. For today’s game, I recommend taking the Tigers to pull off the upset.

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