Today’s MLB Picks: Marlins vs. Phillies 6/15/22

by | Jun 15, 2022 | mlb

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies
Date: Wednesday, June 15th, 01:05 ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park
TV: Bally Sports Florida
Money Line: Marlins +113 / Phillies -135 (Bovada)
Total Line: 8.5

STARTING PITCHING

Miami: Pablo López (4-2, 2.43)
Philadelphia: Kyle Gibson (4-2, 4.41)

Marlins Projected Lineup

Jon Berti 3B
Miguel Rojas SS
Avisaíl García RF
Jesus Sanchez CF
Jacob Stallings C
Jorge Soler LF
Jesús Aguilar 1B
Jasrado Chisholm Jr. 2B
Garrett Cooper 1B
Pablo López P

Phillies Projected Lineup

Alec Bohm 3B
Bryson Stott 2B
J.T. Realmuto C
Didi Gregorius SS
Nick Castellanos RF
Mickey Moniak CF
Bryce Harper RF
Kyle Schwarber LF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Kyle Gibson P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Miami Marlins: 28-32-0 SU / OU 31-28-1 / Run Line W/L 33-27-0
Philadelphia Phillies: 31-31-0 SU / OU 36-24-2 / Run Line W/L 31-31-0

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Miami Marlins on Wednesday, June 15th at Citizens Bank Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 01:05 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Philadelphia as the favorite (-135), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

Miami looks to keep things rolling after taking down the Phillies by the score of 11-9. For the game, Miami’s pitching staff allowed 9 runs on 13 hits. The Marlins benefited from an offense that generated 11 runs on 11 hits. This victory came despite being the betting underdog, getting 130.0 on the moneyline. Together, the Marlins and Phillies combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 8.5 runs. Miami has had more than half of their games go over the over-under line (31-28-1).

The Marlins are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 3-2 over their last 5 games. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at +3. Offensively, the team has put up 29 runs in their last 5 games. Miami’s season average comes in at 4.58 (10th. Miami’s overall series record is just 7-11-2.

The Phillies will look to get back on track after dropping their last game by a score of 11-9 to the Marlins. On their way to giving up 11 runs, the Phillies staff allowed 11 hits. In the loss, the Phillies’ offense still came up with 13 hits and 9 runs. Leading into the game, Philadelphia was the betting favorite at -154.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 41 games, winning at a rate of 54.0%. The Phillies and Marlins went over the run total line set at 8.5 runs. For the season, the team’s over-under record is 36-24-2.

Across their last 5 contests, the Phillies are above .500, going 3-2. Philadelphia has managed to play above .500 baseball, despite their last 5 scoring margin sitting at -7. Philadelphia is still playing winning baseball, even with their offense averaging just 4.8 runs per game, compared to a season long mark of 4.85. Philadelphia has a below .500 series record of just 7-11-2.

Pitching Matchup

The Miami Marlins will send Pablo López to the mound with an overall record of 4-2. Currently, López has an ERA of just 2.43, while pitching an average of 5.84 innings per outing. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.205. Per 9 innings pitched, López, is averaging 0.9 home runs allowed. On the season, Pablo López has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 26.0%. This includes a per game average of 6.0 K’s per game. Commmand has been a problem for López, as he is giving up 2.43 walks per outing.

Kyle Gibson gets the start for the Phillies, with an overall record of 4-2. Gibson gets the start with an ERA of 4.41. On average, he has lasted 5.26 innings per appearance. Compared to other starters, the right-hander has a high BA allowed of 0.250. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Gibson, as he is allowing just 0.86 per 9 innings. Overall, he is averaging 4.67 strikeouts per game, on a K rate of 21.0%. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.84 walks per outing.

Miami vs Philadelphia History

For the season, the Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies will be playing their 7th game of the season. So far, Miami is leading the season series, 4-2. Through 6 games, the series’ over-under record is 4-2, with the average run total sitting at 7.74 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 4.17 runs. Last season, Miami picked up the series win, 10 games to 9. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 7-11, with the average run total being 7.74 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.11 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
  • Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Philadelphia is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games when playing Miami

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Heading into Wednesday afternoon’s showdown between Miami and Philadelphia, the Phillies are just a slight favorite to pick up the win. However, I recommend taking the Marlins to win their 2nd in a row vs Philadelphia. In his last outing vs the Phillies, Pablo Lopez worked 5 1/3 scoreless innings. I expect another strong outing from the Marlins right-hander.

Free MLB Pick: Marlins Moneyline

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