Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick 9/1/20

by | Sep 1, 2020 | mlb

Washington Nationals (12-20) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (15-15)

When: 7:05 p.m., Tuesday, September 1

Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia

Starting Pitchers: Patrick Corbin (2-2, 3.82 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) vs. Aaron Nola (3-2, 3.00 ERA, 0.92 WHIP)

Moneyline: WSH +133/PHI -143 (Bet365 - Best Betting Site for Euros!)

Runline: Nationals +1.5/Phillies -1.5

Total: 8.5

Half-Awake and Almost Done

This was always the danger with the Nationals: would they have enough time to overcome a slow start and get themselves into the race? With four weeks left in the season, the answer appears a resounding no. The defending world champions are second-worst in the National League, ahead of only the not-even-pretending to compete Pirates. It’s clear that the big problem with this team is that they just can’t get outs. Opponents are hitting .279 against Washington, third-worst in the majors.

As a team, the Nationals are hitting the ball reasonably well, sitting second in the majors behind the White Sox in batting average. But the Nationals are one of just five teams with fewer than 800 putouts this season, which means that when the ball gets put in play, it’s usually not a great outcome for Washington.

Joe’s Horror Show

Remember how we said the Nationals rank third-worst in opposing batting average? The Phillies are somehow even worse, ranking 30 out of 30. Yet Philadelphia is actually surging and in the mix for a playoff spot, while Washington appears to be already playing out the string.

That’s because the Phillies actually can get outs — as long as their starter pitches. Philadelphia has received ten quality starts out of 30, solid enough to keep them in games. The Phillies’ rotation has a respectable 3.20 ERA, which should be more than enough for a team with a solid offense. But boy, is that bullpen historically awful. Philadelphia’s bullpen has been so bad that congressman Brendan Boyle, who represents northeastern Philadelphia in the House of Representatives, has jokingly threatened to introduce legislation to make the Phillies’ bullpen illegal. Yes, that actually happened.

Making matters worse for the Phils is that their plan of relying on David Robertson to save the bullpen in September fell apart as Tommy John complications pushed his recovery back, meaning the Phillies paid him $23 million for 6.2 innings worth of work over two years. The good news for the Phils is that newly-acquired David Phelps should add depth in the bullpen, and some of the bullpen arms are starting to figure it out. Brandon Workman appears that he might be the answer in the bullpen right now, as he has allowed just one run in his past four appearances — all games that ended up in the win column for Philadelphia.

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Capital Punishment

If the Phillies can get themselves into the playoffs — and it’s starting to look like they might pull that off — their ability to beat the Nationals will be a large part of the reason. Philadelphia is 3-0 against its I-95 rival, and only once have the Nationals topped three runs against the Phillies this year. Of course, that was yet again the fault of the Philadelphia bullpen, but the Phils have shown that they can win tight ones against the Nationals too, such as in Nola’s last start. In that game, the bullpen didn’t let Washington back into the contest, slamming the door on the Nationals with five shutout innings.

Betting Trends

  • The Nationals are 1-5 in their past six as a road underdog.
  • The Nationals have dropped six of seven.
  • The Nationals have lost four straight against a right-handed starter.
  • The Phillies have won six of seven home games.
  • The Phillies are 15-5 in their past 20 Tuesday games.
  • The over is 4-1 in the Phillies’ past five against a left-handed starter.
  • The over is 7-1-1 in the Nationals’ past nine as an underdog.
  • The under is 4-1 in the past five meetings in Philadelphia.
  • The under is 9-3-3 in the teams’ past 15 meetings.

Weather Report

The wind is blowing east toward the third-base dugout, with temperatures projected to be at a mild 78 degrees at the first pitch.

Dan’s Pick

Philadelphia is playing much better as of late and has charged into the playoff picture, and Washington just appears to be done. I’m not sure whether the Nats have a World Series hangover or if they just got buried by their slow start, but Washington doesn’t look capable of making any kind of run at all at this point. The Phillies have the better pitching staff and should be able to hit well enough to get a win here. Give me Philadelphia. Bet your MLB picks for FREE this week by depositing $300 and receiving an additional $300 bonus in your betting account at MyBookie Sportsbook!