Shota Imanaga’s 1.10 WHIP and 29 walks across 121 innings is a command profile that limits traffic — and traffic is exactly what a Yankees lineup missing Judge, Stanton, and Bellinger needs to push a total. The market set this at 9 (-105 Under) before fully accounting for how much run-creation ceiling New York has actually lost.
Will Warren vs. Shota Imanaga: New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
The Yankees are arriving at Wrigley Field battered. Aaron Judge is on the 60-Day IL with a rib injury. Giancarlo Stanton is shelved with a calf issue. Cody Bellinger is out with a hamstring problem. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is day-to-day. That isn’t a lineup with a rough stretch — that’s a fundamentally different offensive organism than the one the market built its early-season expectations around. Judge’s .907 OPS and 17 home runs in just 214 at-bats, Stanton’s power, Bellinger’s contact — none of it is available today.
Against that depleted roster, the Cubs are sending out Shota Imanaga, who carries a 1.10 WHIP and has issued just 29 walks in 121 innings. That command profile doesn’t just limit hits — it limits traffic, and it limits the kind of multi-runner rallies that a shorthanded lineup desperately needs to manufacture runs. One side of this total is being held down by an elite arm against a crippled offense. That’s the core of the Under argument.
The Cubs’ own bullpen situation — 10 arms on the IL — introduces real uncertainty on the back end. This isn’t a one-sided suppression story. But the numbers project 9.2 combined runs, and with Imanaga doing the heavy lifting on one side, the Under at 9 (-105) represents the value side of a close number.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Friday, July 31, 2026 — 2:20 PM ET
- Venue: Wrigley Field (Park Factor: 1.02 — essentially neutral)
- TV: MLB.TV, Marquee Sports Net, YES
- Probable Starters: Will Warren (NYY) vs. Shota Imanaga (CHC)
- Moneyline: Yankees +126 / Cubs -148
- Run Line: Cubs -1.5 (+138) / Yankees +1.5 (-166)
- Total: 9 (Over -115 / Under -105)
Why This Number Is Close
The market landed on 9 for good reason. The Cubs are averaging 5.19 runs per game this season against a Will Warren who carries a 4.41 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. That’s a real vulnerability — Warren has allowed 15 home runs in 102 innings, and his sweeper grades out at a concerning .387 xwOBA against, which is exactly the pitch a lineup like Chicago’s can do damage against. Pete Crow-Armstrong (.920 OPS, 24 HR) and Seiya Suzuki (.839 OPS) are legitimate threats, and Ian Happ’s .428 xwOBA against right-handed pitching makes him a dangerous middle-of-the-lineup presence against Warren’s profile.
The legitimate case for the Over rests on Cubs hitters teeing off on Warren early, and a shorthanded Yankees bullpen not being able to hold down a Cubs offense that draws walks at a .340 OBP clip and has 469 team walks this season. Rallies that start with baserunners are exactly how you push a total over 9.
Where I think the market undersells the Under: Imanaga’s floor against this specific Yankees lineup is meaningfully higher than his season numbers suggest. To be clear — Ben Rice is a genuine offensive threat. His .935 OPS and 31 home runs in 387 at-bats make him the Yankees’ best active hitter, not a placeholder. Imanaga has to navigate him seriously. But remove Judge and Stanton — the power protection that surrounded Rice in this order — and you strip away the lineup’s depth. Behind Rice, you’re looking at a back half of Schuemann, Caballero, McMahon, and Sánchez. That’s a collection of role players who can’t punish mistakes the way the full lineup can. Imanaga’s split-finger generates a 39.7% whiff rate and holds hitters to a .245 xwOBA — that’s a put-away pitch against any lineup, and a particularly devastating one against a roster this thin behind its best bat. The -105 juice on the Under reflects the market’s respect for Imanaga, but it still doesn’t fully price in who he’s facing today.
What Separates the Pitching
The gap between these two starters is real and matters directly to the total. Imanaga’s arsenal is headlined by his four-seam fastball at 41.3% usage and 91.8 mph — not overpowering velocity, but he sequences it brilliantly against a split-finger that tunnels out of the same release point. That splitter sits at 83.1 mph with a 39.7% whiff rate and .245 xwOBA against — it’s genuinely one of the better put-away pitches in the National League. His sweeper adds another layer at 32.2% whiff rate and .286 xwOBA. What makes Imanaga dangerous isn’t raw stuff — it’s that he combines elite command (1.10 WHIP, 29 BB in 121 IP) with a pitch mix that creates weak contact and limits the free baserunners that a short-handed lineup would need to chain together runs.
Warren is a different animal. His four-seam fastball runs 93.7 mph at 39.5% usage, but it holds hitters to a .302 xwOBA — passable but not dominant. The real problem is his sinker at .356 xwOBA and his sweeper at a troubling .387 xwOBA against. When hitters sit on Warren’s secondary offerings, they make meaningful contact. His 1.41 WHIP tells you he puts runners on base at a rate that gives offense opportunities to snowball, and the Cubs’ lineup — Crow-Armstrong’s .453 xwOBA, Happ’s .428 xwOBA vs. RHP, Suzuki’s .400 xwOBA — has the profile to exploit exactly those situations.
The pitching gap strongly favors Imanaga holding the Yankees to two or three runs. Warren’s ceiling against this Cubs lineup is shakier, but the Cubs’ depleted bullpen creates enough uncertainty that the Over isn’t a layup either. This is a total that lives or dies on Imanaga’s quality start.
Angles I’m Rejecting
The Cubs moneyline at -148 is a real number — Imanaga is the better pitcher and the Cubs are the better team. But laying that kind of juice on a game where the Cubs’ bullpen is held together with spit and roster wire means you’re buying a lot of risk for uncertain return. The Cubs are 9-6 in extra-inning games this season, which tells you they can win ugly, but it also tells you their games have a habit of extending. At -148, you need everything to go right. I’d rather take the Under at -105 and let Imanaga’s arm do the work without paying a premium on the backend.
The run line at Cubs -1.5 (+138) is tempting. The numbers like the Cubs by more than a run. But run-line variance is brutal in low-scoring games — a total projected near 9.2 means a one-run Cubs win is a real scenario, and at -1.5, that’s a loss. The Under captures the low-scoring thesis without requiring a specific margin.
Pushback I Take Seriously
The Cubs bullpen situation is the most legitimate counterargument. With 10 arms on the IL, Chicago’s relief corps is genuinely stretched. If Imanaga exits early or has a rough middle frame, the team leaning on a patchwork bullpen against even a depleted Yankees lineup is a real risk. I’m not dismissing it — I’m acknowledging that the Under here isn’t a comfortable bet, it’s a close-number value play.
It’s also worth noting that Imanaga has allowed 22 home runs in 121 innings this season — that’s not an elite HR-suppression profile. Ben Rice, with his .935 OPS and 31 home runs, is exactly the kind of hitter who can make Imanaga pay on a mistake pitch. That said, with Judge and Stanton out of the lineup, Rice doesn’t have the protection around him to create crooked-number innings the way a full Yankees roster could. One Rice home run keeps this under 9; a three-run rally requires a lineup depth that simply isn’t there today.
Wrigley’s park factor of 1.02 is essentially neutral — it’s not providing meaningful inflation or suppression. Day game, mid-summer, light wind: conditions don’t tilt this significantly in either direction.
Run Environment Breakdown
Projected output of 9.2 combined runs puts this right on the number. The Under at -105 wins if Imanaga delivers a quality start — six or seven innings, two or fewer runs — and the Cubs score three to five off Warren. That’s not a low-probability scenario. It’s actually the chalk path when you look at the injury report and the pitching matchup together.
The Yankees are scoring 4.70 runs per game this season as a full roster. Strip out Judge, Stanton, and Bellinger, and that number has nowhere to go but down. Rice is real, Goldschmidt provides some pop, but the back half of this lineup — Schuemann (.742 OPS), Caballero, McMahon, Sánchez — is not going to string together runs against Imanaga’s command and his 39.7% whiff-rate splitter.
The Cubs, for their part, are averaging over five runs a game and carry a .755 team OPS. They’ll likely score. The question is whether they score enough against a Warren/bullpen combination that has real holes. My read: they score three to five, Imanaga holds New York to one to three, and the combined total lands under 9.
Bet: Under 9 (-105) — 2 units
