AdventHealth 400 Race Predictions & Picks
Race: AdventHealth 400
Date: Sunday May 5, 2024
Track: Kansas Speedway
Time: 3 pm ET
Channel: FS1
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
As predicted, Denny Hamlin managed to hold off Kyle Larson for his third win of the season! Although Hamlin only has one win here, he’s always been pretty strong, and he’s certainly seeing a great deal of success and consistency so far this season. He certainly had the car to beat, leading a race-high 136 laps of the 400. Larson was running strong and hot on his heels for a second-place finish, just 0.256 seconds behind Hamlin. Hamlin’s teammate, Martin Truex Jr., finished a strong third followed by Kyle Busch and Chase Elliott to round out the top 5.
It really was those top 3 guys that ruled the day. Truex and Larson split the win of the other two stages but couldn’t nail down the win. For William Byron, it turned into his first DNF of the year. He was involved in a late-race incident with Christopher Bell and Bubba Wallace. Those two drivers have now had 2 DNFs in a row. It definitely was not the kind of weekend that they were hoping for. Noah Gragson, on the other hand, is having a pretty great run lately. He finished 6th at Dover. He was followed by Ryan Blaney, Alex Bowman, Daniel Hemric, and Ty Gibbs. That was another strong run for Gibbs as well. He’s definitely solidifying his spot in the standings, which is critical without having a win. This weekend, he’ll have another opportunity, but maintaining good finishes is a good thing for that team right now. Taking risks for wins may not be the best option.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, the drivers are headed to Kansas for another great Sunday afternoon of racing. Kansas is much different than Dover. It’s an intermediate track with a lot of speed and is similar to other tracks like Las Vegas. It is a 1.5-mile asphalt tri-oval with 17 to 20 degrees of banking through the turns, 9 to 11 degrees on the front stretch, and 5 degrees on the backstretch. With the speed that these guys get on this track, they will want to qualify up front and stay there. Track position is 100% the name of the game. Second to track position are tires. Right side wear is going to be pretty noticeable, especially with potentially long stretches of green flag racing. We don’t typically see the same level of tire wear as in years past due to the stage racing, but it still happens. With this track having one of the newer surfaces on the circuit, finding the right tire compound and combination is one of the hardest things to do here. How hard these drivers can run often depends on how good these tires are.
Odds and Value Picks
When it comes to picking a winner, we’re likely to going to see huge repeat performance of our top 5 at Dover. These same drivers all have success at Kansas, but I do think that one driver in particular will outperform. That guy is Kyle Larson. He’s an intermediate track connoisseur. Now, that doesn’t mean that Dover winner, Denny Hamlin, won’t give a good fight. In fact, he is the defending winner of this race. His average finish is slightly better than Larson’s, but I think Larson will outrun him. Hear me out. Hamlin has more wins than Larson over the years, but that’s comparing Hamlin’s 31 starts to Larson’s 18. Knowing that, we have to consider recent years. In just the last three years, Hamlin only has one win as does Larson. They’re on pretty even playing ground. Honestly, I think it will be a close race, with other drivers sprinkled into the mix. Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into Kansas with odds provided by Bovada Sportsbook:
- Winner: Kyle Larson +450
- Mid-Range Pick: Noah Gragson +6600
Noah Gragson, as mentioned earlier, is proving that they’re not a one hit wonder and cultivating talent as we move through the year. This would be a great opportunity for them to rise up. He’s got a win at this track as an Xfinity driver, so he’s not a stranger to victory lane. Those guys will have to chase down Kyle Larson, though. Honestly, we have to keep our eyes peeled on quite a few people here, including the Gibbs garage. Hamlin and Truex, in particular, will be guys to watch. Kyle Busch is also looking to add a win to his resume this season and really come away with some valuable points. He’s struggled more than I thought he would so far in 2024. Let’s take a look at where everyone is standing in the points after Dover.
- Kyle Larson
- Martin Truex Jr.
- Chase Elliott
- Denny Hamlin
- Tyler Reddick
- William Byron
- Ryan Blaney
- Ty Gibbs
- Alex Bowman
- Ross Chastain
- Kyle Busch
- Chase Briscoe
- Joey Logano
- Chris Buescher
- Bubba Wallace
- Brad Keselowski
Wallace was a big loser this weekend, dropping four spots. Keselowski lost two positions, putting him on the bubble. Kyle Busch came away as a big winner after Dover, picking up six positions and positioning him back into the top 16. Byron dropped two spots while Hamlin grabbed 2. I would expect for Byron to bounce back pretty easily to be honest.
Hamlin is looking for a championship this year. He can say all he wants that careers aren’t defined by championships, but you better believe that he wants one. BAD. He’s giving it a good shot, but he’s got strong competition. Kyle Larson isn’t going to give up that easily. He’s sitting atop the leaderboard and likely intends to stay there. Stay tuned to see a great afternoon of racing this weekend at Kansas!