AdventHealth 400 Value Picks & Betting Analysis

by | Last updated May 4, 2023 | nascar

Bubba Wallace NASCAR Driver

Race: AdventHealth 400

Date: Sunday, May 7, 2023

Track: Kansas Speedway

Time: 3 pm ET

Channel: FS1

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

After rain moved the start of the race up on Sunday, it was very evident that the drivers were not going to be able to get in enough of the race, ultimately making NASCAR move it to Monday. Monday didn’t prove to be much better for many of the drivers, unfortunately. For Martin Truex Jr., though, it was a great day. In fact, it was a great day for that entire family! Truex’s little brother, Ryan, won his first-ever NASCAR race at Dover on Saturday. He’s actually driven in all three series but has never managed to pin a win until this weekend. What a great weekend it must’ve been as big brother Martin managed to make it a family affair. They join a short list of brothers winning on the same weekend, making them only the fifth ever to accomplish such a feat. Late in the race, lap traffic played quite the role in the finish. Another factor that helped Truex power to the front? Two new tires went on his machine after a late caution, allowing him to outlast Chastain after getting off pit road in the first spot.

There weren’t many cars remaining on the lead lap, truth be told. In fact, there were only eight cars on the lead lap with 14 laps to go when Joey Logano slammed the outside wall. This resulted in quite the battle. Although Chastain had four new tires as opposed to Truex’s two, it was evident that track position on that short run was going to win the battle. Truex didn’t win in spectacular fashion, but he won by around half a second. Prior to the caution caused by Joey Logano, Chastain was being held up by lap traffic. Ty Gibbs and Kyle Larson we’re unforgiving. For Gibbs, well, that’s a teammate loyalty obviously. For Larson, Chastain is just lucky Larson didn’t slam him into a wall. Earlier in the race, Chastain managed to tagged Brennan Poole. That is a seemingly minor hit until Kyle Larson gets collected in the carnage. Larson was very clearly unhappy about the incident and had some choice words for Chastain. Ross did admit that it was a very clear mistake to tag Poole and vowed to make it right after the race. Chastain will have to mind his Ps and Qs. He seems to be going into these races pretty hot and might want to temper his aggression so early in the race. I’m not saying don’t race hard but make it a point to avoid contact when possible. Chastain managed a 2nd place finish despite the fireworks earlier in the day. He was followed by Ryan Blaney, William Byron, and Denny Hamlin to round out the top five spots. Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, Brad Keselowski, Chris Buescher, and Josh Berry completed the top ten.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

Josh Berry had another great run this weekend, as he filled in for Hendrick driver Alex Bowman. If there ever was a solid choice for a backup, this is your man! Berry will be behind the wheel again this weekend as the drivers and teams head to Kansas for the next race. Kansas is a cool race. Is a 1.5 mile asphalt tri-oval. The turns have 17-20 degrees of progressive banking, with 9-11 degrees in the tri-oval, and just five on the backstretch. As with all intermediate tracks, the tire situation is of the utmost importance. Kansas still has a somewhat newer surface with a tire that Goodyear completed reconfigured for this track last year. There are still issues to work out, but it hasn’t been a total disaster. This year, I think that the drivers are being a little more aggressive with the cars since they have a better idea of what they’re working with. That said, this may lead to more issues with tire wear. With the focus on right sides at this track, it’ll be interesting to see if there are more than usual hits to the outside wall with tires going down or not. It’ll also be interesting to see if Ross Chastain can manage not to knock someone into the wall on Sunday compared to previous races so far this year.

Odds and Value Picks

When it comes to picking winners for this weekend, our race winner from Dover is going to be someone to watch. Although Truex has been riding a little on the struggle bus, his win from Dover will only carry over momentum into Kansas. As the driver with the best average finish here since 2020, he will be someone to keep your eyes on. However, he doesn’t have a win since then either. Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, and Bubba Wallace all have wins. Out of that particular group, I’m putting my money on Kyle Larson. Why Larson? Mostly because getting hit in the race the weekend prior is going to bring him into this weekend with a chip on his shoulder and a lot to prove. Larson is notoriously good at these intermediate tracks and is no stranger to victory lane. With aggravation as a motivator, Larson is going to channel that into his efforts of gaining another victory. I really do think that he’s going to be the one to beat this weekend. Let’s take a look at your potential winners as we head into this weekend of racing with odds by MyBookie. Use bonus code PREDICT100 there and they’ll give you a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $75 to $300!

  • Winner: Kyle Larson +510
  • Mid-Range Pick: Bubba Wallace +1550
  • Dark Horse: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +10000

Stenhouse Jr. has a mixed bag of finishes here. His last finish here resulted in a 30th place finish. Prior to that, it was an 8th place result. This year, Stenhouse is doing remarkably well. It’s been a good season so far for him, coming off a respectable 15th place finish at Dover. He’s looking to continue the trend at Kansas. Bubba Wallace actually has a win at Kansas. He’s had an on-and-off year so far, but Kansas is one of his better tracks. His average finish isn’t the best, at around 18, but with a win and a couple of top 10s and so his better than average season so far, look for Wallace to have a strong finish. Kyle Larson is going to be the one to beat. He’s bringing his aggravation to the track this weekend, looking for another win after getting the raw end of the deal. Let’s take a look at your current standings after the race at Dover and the catastrophe involving Kyle Larson.

  1. Kyle Busch
  2. Kyle Larson
  3. William Byron
  4. Christopher Bell
  5. Martin Truex Jr.
  6. Tyler Reddick
  7. Joey Logano
  8. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
  9. Ross Chastain
  10. Kevin Harvick
  11. Ryan Blaney
  12. Denny Hamlin
  13. Brad Keselowski
  14. Chris Buescher
  15. Alex Bowman
  16. Chase Briscoe

Larson and Busch are switching around first and second place week after week, but it just goes to show their consistency as the weeks wear on. Truex Jr. made significant progress with his win, moving him up five spots in the standings. That was exactly what that team needed. It doesn’t hurt that it locks them into the playoffs, either. Chris Buescher is another driver who is doing everything right. He came off the bubble after Dover and is not in 14th position, gaining every point that he possible can. Overall, the standings are staying pretty stable at the moment. We’ll have to see if there are any major moves at Kansas that ruffle feathers. With Larson’s ruffled feathers from Dover, though, we might see him get back to the top of the standings. Stay tuned for a great weekend of racing as the drivers and teams head to Kansas this weekend! Want more free bets? Head over to our sportsbook bonuses page and there’s a bunch of bookies offering Predictem readers a special 100% bonus!