Cook Out 400 Race Preview & Predictions
Race: Cook Out 400
Date: Sunday July 30, 2023
Track: Richmond Raceway
Time: 3pm ET
Channel: USA
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
As the drivers and teams revel in what was an interesting finish to the Pocono race, Denny Hamlin (as predicted!) had a victorious Sunday, earning his 50th career win at the Tricky Triangle. He now beats Jeff Gordon for all-time wins at Pocono with seven total. Many called out Denny Hamlin for the race-winning bump and run on Kyle Larson, but Hamlin sees it differently. He called out Larson for not making a different choice in choosing lanes and how he ran the track. Awkwardly, Hamlin and Larson are pretty close-knit off the track, but Larson was still pretty irked after the race. He said it wouldn’t affect his off-the-track friendship with Hamlin, but he feels he’s earned the right to race him differently moving forward. For Larson, he had a great car that could’ve potentially won the race. He mentioned that he’s never had to apologize to Denny for anything way that he’s raced him on the track, insinuating Hamlin needed to apologize for this. Larson went on to say he doesn’t expect Hamlin to apologize because all of Hamlin’s buddies know that Denny is always right.
Regardless of what happened, not only did Hamlin take his 50th career victory, but he gave Toyota their 600th win across all three NASCAR series. That’s pretty cool. Tyler Reddick finished second, followed by Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick, and Ty Gibbs. For Gibbs, it was his career-best finish. Christopher Bell, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Harrison Burton, Erik Jones, and Chase Elliott rounded out the top 10 spots. Honestly, Denny Hamlin had a strong car throughout a good portion of the race. He likely could’ve won the race without causing so much carnage to Larson, but instead, Larson finished a dismal 21st after seemingly minor damage proved to be more than the car could bear. Other drivers not so fortunate included the likes of Austin Dillon, who threw his helmet at Tyler Reddick after a hard hit into the turn 1 wall. It was a three-wide battle that Dillon lost, but he couldn’t maintain his composure. Little brother Ty dumped Chase Briscoe in turn 3, although it wasn’t clear what really led to that whole debacle. Finally, Ryan Preece and Corey LaJoie had at it on track and off track after some contact. In total, there were 11 cautions, the most of any at Pocono since 2005. It seems like there’s a solid pattern of discontentment among many of the drivers, which I can only imagine isn’t going to get any better as we continue to approach the end of the regular season.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
Surely, a short track race isn’t going to help matters. This weekend, drivers and crews are headed to none other than Richmond Raceway to battle it out. Richmond is a bit atypical when it comes to short tracks. It’s flat but just long enough that the leaders can still get a pretty solid run on the rest of the field. This track is a 0.75-mile D-shaped asphalt oval with 14 degrees of banking in the turns, 8 degrees on the front stretch, and 2 degrees on the backstretch. It’s just a little bit longer than Bristol but a little bit smaller than a track like Phoenix. Richmond gives us the best of both worlds, where tires and track position are really important, but lap traffic is significant due to the amount of cars that can easily be lapped as the race progresses. Over the last few years, we’ve seen the carnage that lap cars can cause at these types of places. Overall, Richmond is a track of endurance and tire strategy. Pits are going to be majorly important. Many of the teams that have had some really bad luck on pit road this year need a good showing here. We are edging ever so close to the closure of the regular season, and every point matters.
Odds and Value Picks
When it comes to picking a winner, we can’t really rule out the not-so-lucky recipient of Denny’s latest bump-and-run technique. Kyle Larson already won the first race at this track this year. It remains to be seen if he can pull it off again, but I think that he’s got a really solid chance. His team brought a strong car to Pocono. Clearly, they know what it takes to win this race. It’s not going to be much different. These are both day races, with perhaps the biggest shift being the temperature from April to now. Obviously, the track is going to be much hotter, with drivers battling pretty extreme temperatures this weekend, as heat indices are predicted to be well above 105 here in Virginia. That’s going to be difficult for the drivers to endure, as well as maintaining tires and other equipment on the car. I think that Larson and company will manage another strong contention this weekend, but he will have a lot of competition as many are hunting for a win to gain that security of getting into the playoffs. Here’s a look at your potential winners heading into this weekend’s race:
- Winner: Kyle Larson +650
- Mid-Range Pick: Brad Keselowski +2200
- Dark Horse: Chase Briscoe +6600
Chase Briscoe is a driver that is progressively getting better and better. He had a 12th-place finish here this year in April’s race and is looking to better that finish this weekend. His worst finish at Richmond in just five starts is 23rd. I think that Briscoe is a driver we need to watch in the next couple of years. As the team develops, Briscoe gains confidence, and SHR puts a little more credence into Briscoe himself, we should definitely see a much more consistent trail of finishes to come. Brad Keselowski is a driver to watch, particularly on this track. In April’s race, he mustered a 10th-place finish, with a couple of wins under his belt as well; overall, his worst finish in the last 15 races was 15th. Keselowski has done a great job of nursing a young team. If you listen to any podcasts, Dale Jr’s in particular, you’ll know that he’s made great strides, and a lot of the other drivers are watching for him to make somewhat of a comeback. Richmond is a great track for him and a great place to make that happen. He’s got his work cut out for him in trying to beat Larson to the checkers, though. Larson is April’s winner and someone that means business every time he sets foot on the track. After the debacle with Hamlin, Larson is probably looking for a bit of redemption, and what better place to get it? Let’s look to see where Larson and the rest of the guys are sitting after Pocono:
- Martin Truex Jr.
- William Byron
- Kyle Busch
- Denny Hamlin
- Kyle Larson
- Ross Chastain
- Christopher Bell
- Ryan Blaney
- Joey Logano
- Tyler Reddick
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- Kevin Harvick
- Brad Keselowski
- Chris Buescher
- Bubba Wallace
- Michael McDowell