Grant Park 220 Race Analysis & Picks

Race: Grant Park 220
Date: Sunday, July 2, 2023
Track: Chicago Street Race
Time: 5:30 pm ET
Channel: NBC

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

Ross Chastain has finally broken his winless streak after a pretty dominating performance at Nashville Superspeedway! For Chastain, it’s been a frustrating year with an umbrella of doubt accompanied by a lot of chatter about his driving style. Personally, I don’t think he had anything he needed to apologize for but to appease NASCAR, Chastain did what he had to do. What we’re seeing is a shift from the sanctioning body in how drivers are allowed to maneuver on the track. With Elliott suspended a few weeks ago for supposedly dumping Denny Hamlin, it’s a wonder that more drivers haven’t been suspended. With this precedent that NASCAR is setting, drivers will not be able to inadvertently touch anyone for fear of suspension. Quite frankly, the aggressive driving by the likes of Denny Hamlin and Bubba Wallace should also be questioned. For Chastain, it’s a matter of being on good behavior. But hey, if you’re reading this, Ross, keep doing what you do. We appreciate a driver that has his eye on the prize and is there for racing. Not many can do what Chastain can do behind the wheel. He really should be celebrated instead of chastised.

If anything, the needle threading through JJ Yeley and Aric Almirola was pretty impressive among other lap traffic passes. This pass was particularly impressive because of Almirola’s known hatred for Chastain. Apparently, there’s some sort of tiff from Dover that lingers. Needless to say, Chastain saw an opening and took full advantage. Many would say this was the move that solidified his win. Martin Truex Jr. was closing the gap and chasing him down in the closing laps, but Chastain outmaneuvered him and took the checkered flag first. Truex, Hamlin, Elliott, and Larson rounded out your top 5 spots. Elliott had a strong showing but just never quite had the car to get to the front of the pack. With track position being so critical here, it was clear that being upfront had its advantages. William Byron, Christopher Bell, Erik Jones, Kyle Busch, and AJ Allmendinger finished out the top ten.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

This weekend, drivers and teams have their work cut out for them as they head to the inaugural Chicago Street Race. This is the first of its kind for this series. The track will be a total of 12 turns, with speeds ranging anywhere from around 40mph in the hardest turns to upwards of 140mph+ on the straights. Another interesting characteristic of this course is that it will be reduced to one lane of traffic in certain spots, complicating things for drivers trying to make passes. Turn 7 is looking to be one of the toughest, with traffic jams expected here. We can expect some of the same types of road course challenges here on a street course if I were to guess. Track position is everything. This is probably one of those tracks where you don’t want to be mired in traffic. I think we’re going to see a lot of carnage. Tires are going to be important, but the effects of a street course on tires and what this looks like on the totality of the car setup is going to be something to marvel at.

Odds and Value Picks

A new challenge indeed will bring out some different styles of driving as these drivers have to adapt to the totally new course and car setups. I do think the road course experts will have a clear advantage, but there are going to be things we just don’t know yet and won’t know until we run this race. This is totally a guinea pig situation for NASCAR. We’ll learn a lot from this race and will bring it into the next one for sure. When it comes to picking a winner, it’s a bit of a crapshoot. The drivers are on a level playing field in terms of experience…but not skill. That’s the key. There are a lot of good road course racers and just a lot of drivers that we see race outside of the Cup Series, giving them a little bit of an advantage. The guys that turn laps on the dirt tracks on off days might fare a little better, but with no one knowing how this will play out, we’re left speculating with what we do know. Let’s take a look at your potential winners with current odds offered at Bovada heading into this weekend’s first-ever street race:

• Winner: Kyle Larson +750
• Mid-Range Pick: AJ Allmendinger +800
• Dark Horse: Austin Cindric +2200

Cindric is a beast on road courses. He’s had his fair share of struggles in the Cup Series, but with several wins in the Xfinity Series, he’s going to be one to watch this weekend. AJ Allmendinger is another guy that we don’t typically talk too much about on the ovals, but as a road course driver, The Dinger is a force to be reckoned with. Allmendinger is one of the top bets this weekend, so assuming qualifying goes in his favor, I’d look to see him moving to the front of the pack on Sunday. Kyle Larson is my pick to win, though. Larson is such a super competitive driver, and this type of racing is right up his alley. If you don’t follow him, Larson literally races anything he can on his off weekends from NASCAR. I believe his experience on all types of tracks is going to prove to be hard to beat this weekend. Larson had a top-five finish at Nashville, too, only aiding his confidence heading into the inaugural street race. He’s looking for another win to help with those playoff points for sure. Let’s see where these guys are sitting after Chastain’s dominance at Nashville:

1. Martin Truex Jr.
2. William Byron
3. Ross Chastain
4. Christopher Bell
5. Kyle Busch
6. Kevin Harvick
7. Denny Hamlin
8. Ryan Blaney
9. Kyle Larson
10. Joey Logano
11. Brad Keselowski
12. Chris Buescher
13. Tyler Reddick
14. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
15. Bubba Wallace
16. Daniel Suarez

Both Cindric and Allmendinger sit outside of the top 16, so a win here would be a tremendous feat and one that would lock them into the playoffs. That incentive is enormous! Guys like Suarez, Wallace, and even Stenhouse, who don’t have wins, are essentially on the bubble. Wins are a necessity at this point. That’s going to bring a whole other level of competition as we edge closer and closer to the end of the regular season. This weekend is going to be one for the record books. I’m excited to see what transpires on a brand-new concept for NASCAR. Stay tuned for an awesome inaugural street race this weekend in Chicago!