NOCO 400 Race Analysis & Value Picks
Race: NOCO 400
Date: Sunday, April 16, 2023
Track: Martinsville Speedway
Time: 3:00 pm ET
Channel: FS1
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
The Bristol dirt turned out to be a pretty good race when all was said and done. I will say that I wish NASCAR would give these teams more leeway with the cars. If you’re an actual dirt track racing fan, it’s sometimes hard to watch these cars on a “dirt track”. I say that because these stock cars are not really able to be adjusted to anything that is remotely close to what they would run on a traditional dirt track. Besides the roll cage and four tires, not much is the same. The cars look stiff, going around the track for the entire first half of the race before the track slicks up. It takes the track somewhat resembling a solid surface like asphalt or concrete for the cars to look comfortable on it. In regular dirt track races, it’s so much fun to watch the drivers sling their cars into the turns and drift all the way around. It’s still fun watching these guys do it, and most of them have a background of some sort on dirt, so it helps. But it definitely isn’t your local Friday night dirt race.
That being said, it was fun there as the track wore in, watching these guys get three and four wide around the place. Dirt is still dirt. It’s still fun and still brings back a nostalgic element of hometown racing for a lot of us. For winner Christopher Bell, this is a nostalgic win for sure, as he and the rest of the top 5 drivers have extensive backgrounds in dirt track racing. Bell was able to hold off Tyler Reddick for the last 100 laps by blocking and staying high towards the wall in that last stage. Unfortunately for Reddick, his last shot of a potential overtime finish was thwarted as the wreck happened on the backstretch of the final lap, leaving the victory to be taken under caution. Either way, it was a strong race for Bell, who earned his first win of the year and fifth of his career. This also secures his spot in the playoffs, so the pressure is off on that front. Tyler Reddick, Austin Dillon, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and dark horse pick Chase Briscoe rounded out the top 5 spots. Justin Haley had a very impressive run, bringing home a career-best 6th-place finish. He was followed by Martin Truex Jr., Todd Gilliland, Kevin Harvick, and Ty Gibbs.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, the drivers and teams are heading back to asphalt as they battle another short track at Martinsville. This track is rich in history and a favorite among both fans and drivers. Martinsville Speedway has been around since the 40s and part of NASCAR since it inception. It’s the shortest track on the circuit and also notoriously flat, making the speeds slow way down, but the battles become even bigger. This track creates a lot of lap traffic, a lot of cautions, and a lot of hurt fenders and feelings. You have to be tough to run on the short tracks. This place is a 0.526 asphalt oval with 12 degrees of banking in the turns and no banking on the straights. Drivers use a lot of brake in and out of the corners, leading to the field bunching up quite a bit. This makes pit road entering and exiting a challenge to jump back in the field. Pit road is tight here. It’s important to get a good pit road spot. That will really help a driver out in the grand scheme of things. Tires are another game-changer here. Martinsville can really eat the tires off a car, especially since the straights are asphalt and the corners are concrete. It can make a huge difference in the short runs as well. We see a lot of that as well because if the amount of cautions that we can have at this track.
Odds and Value Picks
When it comes to picking a winner at Martinsville, the veterans generally have an advantage, since it takes quite a bit of skill to navigate. We might see some of these dirt track stars run strong as well since dirt tracks are short tracks. That being said, there are quite a few drivers to watch out for. In the last three years, Joey Logano has the best average finish at 5.2. He doesn’t have any wins and has 3 top 5s, and no finishes worse than 10th. Ryan Blaney is also another great driver at this track, with an average finish of 5.5. Out of all active drivers, Blaney actually has the best average finish in current history. Chase Elliott has a win here, but with him still being sidelined, Josh Berry will have to pilot the #9 to success this weekend. He’s been doing well and really showing strength and confidence as he continues to race amongst the season Cup drivers over these last few weeks. He will definitely have his work cut out for him this weekend, though, as he battles the best drivers out there. William Byron is also someone to watch. He’s been on a tear so far this year and is coming into a track that he does great at. He’s also got a win here in the last three years. The only thing bringing his average down is one DNF. Hopefully, he doesn’t have a repeat this year. Let’s take a look at your potential winners and their odds at Bovada heading into this weekend’s race:
- Winner: Kyle Larson +700
- Mid-Range Pick: Brad Keselowski +2000
- Dark Horse: Chase Briscoe +2500
So Briscoe has two top-10 finishes in his last two starts at Martinsville. He’s also coming off a top 5 finish at Bristol. There’s something about these short tracks that is sticking with him and that team. If he can maintain his car and stay out of trouble, Briscoe should be a pretty strong contender throughout the race. Keselowski is also another driver to watch. He’s an/off driver here. He’s had great finishes and horrible finishes but not much in between. Keselowski seems to be getting more and more confident with his team as the season carries on, and I think that Martinsville is going to be a great chance for him to showcase his talents with them. He will have to beat the Hendrick drivers, though. Kyle Larson is going to be tough to beat. Although William Byron is strong and having a great year, Larson is on the verge of the same success, and this is a great track for him to hit that breakthrough this year. Larson has been very strong and come up short, including with Bristol this weekend after his incident with Preece. If he can stay away from the walls, keep enemies at bay, and run a smart race, Larson is your man to beat. He’s locked into the playoffs already, so he doesn’t have anything to lose. Let’s see where he is in the standings amongst the other drivers after the Bristol dirt race.
- William Byron
- Christopher Bell
- Kyle Larson
- Tyler Reddick
- Kyle Busch
- Joey Logano
- RIcky Stenhouse Jr.
- Ross Chastain
- Kevin Harvick
- Martin Truex Jr.
- Brad Keselowski
- Ryan Blaney
- Alex Bowman
- Denny Hamlin
- Austin Cindric
- Chris Buescher
With the short tracks on the schedule right now, there are bound to be a few moves as these guys get knocked around. I’m very impressed overall with Tyler Reddick and his consistency, and this weekend will only bolster that. Kyle Busch has also clearly fallen into a good place with his new team as he maintains 5th position in the standings. Other guys like Daniel Suarez are having a rougher go of things. While Chastain seems to have hit his groove again this year, Suarez can’t seem to say the same. This track might be an opportunity to make up some ground, but we’ll have to wait and see. Stay tuned for a great afternoon of short track racing at the one and only Martinsville Speedway!