Atlanta Hawks at Dallas Mavericks Predicitons 2/6/22

by | Feb 6, 2022 | nba

Atlanta Hawks (25-27 SU, 23-29-0 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (30-23 SU, 27-26-0 ATS)

When: Sunday, February 6th, 2022, 6:00 pm (ET)
Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
TV: ESPN

Point Spread: ATL +2.5/DAL -2.5 (Opened at 2.5 at MyBookie)
Total: 218.5 (Opened at 218.5)
Money Line: ATL +115/DAL -140
Power Rating: DAL -4

Probable Starting Lineups

Atlanta Hawks: PG Trae Young, SG Kevin Huerter, SF De’Andre Hunter, PF John Collins, C Clint Capela
Dallas Mavericks: PG Luka Doncic, SG Jalen Brunson, SF Reggie Bullock PF Dorian Finney-Smith, C Maxi Kleber

Key Injuries

Atlanta Hawks: F John Collins *Questionable* (Heel), F Danilo Gallinari *Questionable* (Hamstring), G Lou Williams *Questionable* (Hamstring)

Dallas Mavericks: F Maxi Kleber *Questionable* (Knee), F Kristaps Porzingis *Out* (Knee), F Tim Hardaway Jr. *Out* (Foot), G Sterling Brown *Out* (Foot)

Recent Form

The Atlanta Hawks come into this game with a 25-27 record and sit 10th in the Eastern Conference. After looking to be dead in the water, the Hawks have come alive at the season’s midway point. Atlanta finished January winning seven of their last eight games and kicked off this month with a huge upset over the Suns. At first, trading away Cam Reddish to the Knicks seemed like a loss and that the team was looking to begin to prepare for next season, but thanks to their stellar three-point shooting this season, they’ve climbed back into the play-in tournament pool. While things are looking high right now for Atlanta, they face a Dallas defense who has been great this season and defends the three-point shot well, which is the one area the Hawks lean on in every game. While Atlanta is the number one three-point shooting team at 37.6%, the Mavericks are the 6th best defense at defending the perimeter, allowing a 33.9% conversion rate. If the Hawks struggle from range in this game and allow the Mavericks to dictate the pace, it’s going to be hard for them to keep this game close as they don’t have another facet of the game they depend highly on. The Hawks are led offensively by Trae Young, who is averaging 27.9 PPG this season. Though they depend on Young’s production every night, Atlanta does share the ball very well as they have nine players averaging double-digit points. The Hawks offense currently sits 7th as they average 111.8 PPG. Defensively, they are 24th as they allow 111.6 PPG.

The Dallas Mavericks head into this matchup with a 30-23 record and sit 5th in the Western Conference. After their shocking loss to the Thunder on Wednesday, the Mavericks bounced back Friday night with an impressive win over the 76ers. Though the game started slowly with a delay due to a backboard malfunction, the Mavericks were able to overcome an early 16-point deficit thanks to Doncic notching his 44th career triple-double. Holding the 76ers offense to just 35 second-half points was also a huge momentum swing in the game as they allowed only 70 total shots in the game by Philadelphia. While the Mavericks face a lower-tiered defense in the Hawks for this one, they do face a much more lethal offense. Much like the last game was a tale of two halves, I see this game showing a similar result. While Atlanta sits in the top 10, averaging 54.7 second-half points this season, the Mavericks allow 51.4 points and gave up just 44.3 points in their last three games, which is 2nd best in the NBA. As games go on and Dallas continues their gritty defensive play into the second half, they find a way to tire teams out by playing keep-away and slowing down opposing offenses. Should the Mavericks do this once again, the three-point shooting of the Hawks will become easier to defend. On the season, Doncic leads the Mavericks as he averages 26.2 PPG and leads the team in rebounds, assists, and steals as well. As a team, the Mavericks offense is 24th in the NBA as they average 106.3 PPG. Dallas does, however, sit in the 3rd spot defensively as they allow 103.6 PPG.

Hawks on the Road

The Atlanta Hawks have seen trouble traveling so far this season, going 10-15 in their road games. In fact, Atlanta has just two road wins so far this calendar year. On top of their struggles to get outright wins, the Hawks have struggled against the spread on the road as well. Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in their last five road games and has been terrible against good home teams, going 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a home win percentage above .600%. While their homestand last month led to an impressive streak, I see the Mavericks’ defense being too much for a one-dimensional Hawks offense.

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Mavericks at Home

The Dallas Mavericks have an admirable 17-10 home record this season and have been building momentum at American Airlines center, winning six of their last eight home games. Dallas has found success by slowing down their pace to become now the slowest team in the league at 98.4 possessions per game at home. This improved look of the Mavericks has allowed their offense to step up rather than solely leaning on their defense. In many offensive categories, the Mavericks have been able to improve their stats despite being without Porzingis and Hardaway Jr. While the team would love to have them back, in their last game against the 76ers, Doncic stepped up when needed most and filled the stat sheet against a team that he had struggled against up until that point in his career. Against the Hawks, Doncic won’t need another triple-double performance and mount a comeback against a bottom-tier Hawks defense, but without those two key starters once again, the offense will run through him, as expected.

The Historicals

Sunday night is the second matchup between the Hawks and Mavericks this season. The first game took place back in October when the Hawks won in a 113-87 final. Looking back at the last few seasons, the Mavericks have won two of the last three matchups and four of the last six.

How the Public is Betting the Hawks vs. Mavericks

68% are betting the Mavericks against the spread.

55% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 218.5.

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • The Atlanta Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
  • The Atlanta Hawks are 8-2 ATS in their last ten games.
  • The Dallas Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up win.
  • Over is 8-3 in the Hawks’ last 11 games as an underdog.
  • Over is 5-1 in the Mavericks’ last six games.
  • Under is 5-2 in the last seven matchups between the Hawks and Mavericks.
  • The Atlanta Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in Dallas.

Collin’s Pick for Hawks/Mavericks

This cross-conference matchup features two teams that have been trending up the last few weeks. The Hawks had an impressive homestand to finish last month but started their short road trip on Friday with a loss. The Mavericks have come alive offensively the last few weeks, which makes them a tough team in addition to their top 3 defense. While the Hawks are statistically the better offense in this game, they are one-dimensional as they rely heavily on the three-ball, which is an area that the Mavericks have locked down this season. Though the close spread suggests a close game, in the end, I expect another second-half takeover by Dallas. Take the Mavericks to cover the 2.5-point spread. Bet your Hawks vs. Mavs pick and ALL your NBA predictions this week for FREE by taking advantage of a $100 real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $1000 at Betnow Sportsbook! It’s the biggest bonus offer on the web from a LEGIT sportsbook!