Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Game 1 Odds & Pick

by | May 17, 2022 | nba

Boston Celtics (59-34 SU, 51-39-3 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (61-32 SU, 53-39-1 ATS)
When: Tuesday May 17 2022, 08:30 PM (ET)
Where: FTX Arena, Miami, Florida
TV: ESPN

Point Spread: BOS +1.5/MIA -1.5 (Opened at MIA -2)
Total: 203.5 (Opened at 206.5)
Money Line: Boston Celtics +103/Miami Heat -124
Power Rating: MIA -3

Probable Starting Lineups

Boston Celtics PG Marcus Smart Q, SG Jaylen Brown, SF Jayson Tatum, PF Grant Williams, C Al Horford
Miami Heat PG Gabe Vincent, SG Max Strus, SF Jimmy Butler, PF P.J. Tucker, C Bam Adebayo

Key Injuries

Boston Celtics Marcus Smart: Foot (QUESTIONABLE) Sam Hauser: Shoulder (QUESTIONABLE)

Miami Heat Kyle Lowry: Hamstring (DOUBTFUL)

The Miami Heat host the Boston Celtics in an Eastern-Conference Finals matchup. Tip-off is set for 08:30 PM ET at the FTX Arena.

Recent Form

The Boston Celtics come into this game with an overall record of 51-31, placing them 4th in the Eastern Conference. So far, Boston is above .500 on the road, holding a record of 27-19. Over their last five games, the Celtics have played well, picking up 3 wins. In this stretch, Boston’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 108.0 points per game. Combined, the Celtics’ last five opponents are giving up 111.0 points per contest. Boston comes into this game also playing well defensively, holding their opponents to just 99.0 points per game. An improvement on their season average of 104.2. In the Boston Celtics’ most recent game, Boston took down Milwaukee by a score of 109-81.

The Miami Heat come into this game with an overall record of 53-29, placing them 1st in the Eastern Conference. So far, Miami is above .500 at home, holding a record of 35-12. The Heat have played well over their last five games, picking up 3 wins. In this stretch, Miami’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 105.0 points per game. Combined, the Heat’s last five opponents are giving up 107.0 points per contest. The Heat come into this game also playing well defensively, holding their opponents to just 99.0 points per game. An improvement on their season average of 104.6. In the Miami Heat’s most recent game, Miami took down Philadelphia by a score of 99-90.

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Individual Player Analysis

As Boston travels to take on the Miami Heat, the Celtics’ leading scorer is Jayson Tatum. Through 76 games, Tatum is averaging 26 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 47.0% of his games. So far, the Heat are allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 50.72% of their games, placing them 18th among NBA defenses. On the other side, Jimmy Butler leads the Heat in scoring, averaging 21 points across his 58 games. Throughout the season, Butler has outscored his season average in 50.0% of his outings. Given that Boston’s defense has struggled to slow down their opponent’s top scorers, Jimmy Butler should be in line for a big performance. So far, the Celtics have allowed their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 51.67% of their games, giving them a rank of 23rd among NBA defenses.

Matchup Analysis

Heading into this matchup, the Boston Celtics are the more efficient team on both ends of the court. This scenario has taken place in 36 of Boston’s 41 games, leading to a winning percentage of 61%. So far, the Miami Heat have played 41 games as the inferior offensive and defensive unit. In these instances, they have lost 41 times, by an average margin of -15.0 points.

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat have met up for 3 games, with Boston winning twice. In their last meeting, Miami picked up a 106-98 win.

How the Public is Betting the Celtics vs Heat

67% are betting the Heat against the spread.
52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 203.5

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
  • Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Miami’s last 11 games
  • Miami is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Heading into game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, the Miami Heat are the 1.5-point favorites at home. Not only will the Heat benefit from playing on their home floor, but they are also the more rested team. On the other side, Boston is coming off a grueling series vs Milwaukee. However, some outstanding shooting from Jayson Tatum and Grant Williams was more than enough for the Celtics to advance. Throughout the season, both Boston and Miami were two of the league’s best defensive units, ranking 1st and 3rd in defensive efficiency. For game 1, I recommend taking the Heat to pick up the win and cover the spread. Over their first two series, Miami has won their game 1 contests by an average of 20 points. Look for the Heat to pick up a win against a Celtics squad who is coming off a quick turnaround.