Bucks vs. Grizzlies Analysis & Point Spread Prediction

by | Dec 15, 2022 | nba

Milwaukee Bucks (20-7 SU, 15-10-2 ATS) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (18-9 SU, 13-12-2 ATS)
When: Thursday, December 15th, 8:00 PM (ET)
Where: FedExForum, TN, Memphis
TV: NBA

Point Spread: MIL +1.5/ MEM -1.5
Total: 227.0
Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks +101/ -122

Notable Injuries

Bucks

  • Jrue Holiday (Out) Illness
  • Joe Ingles (Out) ACL
  • MarJon Beauchamp (Probable) Nasal Fracture

Grizzlies

  • Danny Green (Out) ACL/LCL
  • Desmond Bane (Out) Toe
  • Vince Williams Jr. (Questionable) Hip

Recent Form

On the campaign, Milwaukee is 20-7 overall. When taking to the road, Milwaukee has a mark of 7-4 and a win percentage of 64%. Currently, the team is 2nd in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 15-10-2 vs. the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs. the spread, they are 4-1 in their past five games and 2-2-1 ATS. Over their past ten games, they are 8-2 SU and 5-3-2 ATS.

In their last game, Milwaukee defeated the Warriors (128-111) as 2-point favorites. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the team with 30 points on 34.6% shooting. The Bucks also covered the spread with the victory.

Heading into the game, Memphis is 18-9 overall. When playing at home, Memphis has a mark of 12-2 and a win percentage of 86%. Currently, the team is 2nd in the Western Conference. So far, they are 13-12-2 vs. the spread. Memphis will look to stay hot in today’s game vs. Milwaukee, as they are the winners of 6 straight games.

The Grizzlies came home with a win in their last matchup against the Hawks, achieving a 128-103 victory as 9-point favorites. Tyus Jones led the Grizzlies with an impressive performance, scoring 22 points on a shooting percentage of 57.1%. In addition to the win, the Grizzlies also covered the spread.

The Historicals

In last season’s head-to-head matchups, the teams split the season series. In these games, each team won on their home floor. Similar to their season-long average, the Bucks averaged 114.0 points per game vs. the Grizzlies. Similar to the Bucks, the Grizzlies scored at a rate near the league average. In their games vs. Milwaukee, the team averaged 120.5 points per game. The ATS record across the previous five head-to-head meetings is 4-1 in favor of the Grizzlies. In these matchups, Memphis has averaged 119 points per game while allowing 112. The over-under record in these same games is 2-3, with the teams combining for an average of 231 points per game.

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Analysis

This year, the Milwaukee offense is not only near the NBA average in points at 112.6 points per game, but they are also playing at a pace similar to the league average. So far, the Bucks are ranked 18th in possessions per contest. The three-point shot has been a big part of Milwaukee’s offensive game plan, as they are ranked 7th in 3-point attempts per game. So far, they have connected on 35.2% of their looks from the outside. On defense, the Bucks allow an average of 112.13 points per game, placing them 19th in the league. So far, opposing teams are hitting 35.73% of their looks from deep vs. Milwaukee.

Heading into today’s game, Milwaukee will be needing a strong offensive effort from Giannis Antetokounmpo and the team’s supporting cast as Jrue Holiday won’t be available vs. Memphis. So far, Holiday is averaging 19.1 points per game. Antetokounmpo leads the Bucks at 31.1 points per contest.

This season, Memphis is among the league leaders in scoring, averaging 115.5 points per game. So far, the Grizzlies are also one of the more up-tempo teams in the league, sitting at 100.7 possessions per game. When looking at the team’s 3-point shooting numbers, they profile as an average team in both percentage and attempts. For the season, the Grizzlies’ offense is ranked 13th in 3-point attempts per game while connecting at a rate of 36.0%. Defensively, the Grizzlies have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 109.93 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.88%.

Ja Morant is the top scorer for the Grizzlies, with an average of 27.7 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 45.8%. Dillon Brooks is the team’s second-leading scorer, averaging 17.7 points per game.

Betting Trends

  • Bucks are 4-0-2 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
  • Bucks are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.
  • Grizzlies are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
  • Grizzlies are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

At time of print, the spread is Memphis -1.5 Oddly enough, as close as this game seems, the final score margin has been no less than 12 over the past three matchups. The home team has won two of those three games. With Jrue Holiday expected to miss this game, my lean is toward the Memphis Grizzlies.