Bucks vs. Twolves Point Spread Pick

by | Mar 19, 2022 | nba

Milwaukee Bucks (44-26 SU, 33-37-0 ATS) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (41-30 SU, 39-30-2 ATS)
When: Saturday March 19 2022, 05:00 PM (ET)
Where: Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota
TV: BSWI

Point Spread: MIL -2.5/MIN +2.5 (Opened MIL -3.5 at GTBets)
Total: 242(Opened at 243.5
Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks -151/Minnesota Timberwolves +126
Power Rating: MIL -4

Probable Starting Lineups

Milwaukee Bucks PG Jrue Holiday, SG Grayson Allen, SF Khris Middleton, PF Giannis Antetokounmpo, C Bobby Portis
Minnesota Timberwolves PG Patrick Beverley, SG D’Angelo Russell, SF Anthony Edwards P, PF Jarred Vanderbilt Q, C Karl-Anthony Towns

Key Injuries

Milwaukee Bucks Pat Connaughton: Finger (PROBABLE) Lindell Wigginton: Ankle (QUESTIONABLE) DeAndre’ Bembry: Knee (OUT)

Minnesota Timberwolves Naz Reid: Back (QUESTIONABLE) Jaden McDaniels: Ankle (OUT) McKinley Wright IV: Elbow (OUT)

The Minnesota Timberwolves host the Milwaukee Bucks in a Non-Conference matchup. Tip-off is set for 05:00 PM ET at the Target Center.

Recent Form

The Milwaukee Bucks come into this game with an overall record of 44-26, placing them 2nd in the Eastern Conference. So far, Milwaukee is above .500 on the road, holding a record of 20-14. Over their last five games, the Bucks have played well, picking up 4 wins. During this stretch, Milwaukee is averaging 125.0 points per game, 10.0 points more than their season average of 114.9. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 110.0 points per contest. Even though Milwaukee has been picking up wins, their opponents have had no trouble scoring the ball, averaging 118.0 points per game, up from the Bucks’ usual rate of 110.9. In the Milwaukee Bucks’ most recent game, Milwaukee took down Sacramento by a score of 135-126

The Minnesota Timberwolves come into this game with an overall record of 41-30, placing them 7th in the Western Conference. So far, Minnesota is above .500 at home, holding a record of 23-12. The Timberwolves have played well over their last five games, picking up 4 wins. During this stretch, Minnesota is averaging 126.0 points per game, 11.0 points more than their season average of 115.2. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 111.0 points per contest. The Timberwolves have been picking up victories while holding opponents to an average of 113.0 points per game, similar to their season average of 111.9. In the Minnesota Timberwolves’ most recent game, Minnesota took down LA Lakers by a score of 124-104.

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Individual Player Analysis

As Milwaukee travels to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Bucks’ leading scorer is Giannis Antetokounmpo. Through 59 games, Antetokounmpo is averaging 29 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 49.0% of his games. Against the Timberwolves, Antetokounmpo will need to be on top of his game as Minnesota is allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their average in 41.0% of their games, placing them in the top 10. On the other side, Karl-Anthony Towns leads the Timberwolves in scoring, averaging 24 points across his 65 games. Throughout the season, Towns has outscored his season average in 49.0% of his outings. However, if he hopes to add to this total, Towns will need to do so against a Bucks defense that has been tough on their opponent’s top scorers. So far, leading scores have surpassed their season average at a rate of just 39.62%. This figure is good for a rank of 4th in the league.

Matchup Analysis

The Bucks come into this game as the more efficient offensive team, averaging 111.4 points per 100 possessions. When playing as the superior offensive unit, Milwaukee is winning at a rate of 63%. These victories are coming by an average margin of 15.0 points. On the other side, the Timberwolves hold the advantage on the defensive end of the floor. So far, they have played 22 games as the better defensive team, picking up 15 wins (68%).

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the Milwaukee Bucks and Minnesota Timberwolves have met up for 1 game. Minnesota took game one by a score of 113-108.

How the Public is Betting the Bucks vs Timberwolves

67% are betting the Bucks against the spread.
52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 242.5

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Betting Trends Worth Noting

Bucks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Timberwolves are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest. Timberwolves are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

The Milwaukee Bucks come into this game as one of the hottest teams in the NBA, having picked up 8 wins over their last 10 games, including two in a row. On the other side, the Timberwolves have rattled off three straight wins as they hope to catch the Nuggets and avoid having to play in the NBA play-in tournament. A key matchup to watch, is how Minnesota will hold up against Giannis Antetokounmpo’s ability to attack the basket and generate free-throw attempts. Led by the Greek Freak, Milwaukee is one of the best teams at generating free-throw attempts. Look for this to be problematic for a Wolves unit who puts their opponent’s on the line at a rate higher than any other team in the league. I see the Bucks covering the spread.