Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics Prediction 3/13/22

by | Last updated Mar 13, 2022 | nba

Dallas Mavericks (41-26 SU, 38-28-1 ATS) vs. Boston Celtics (41-27 SU, 33-32-3 ATS)
When: Sunday March 13 2022, 04:30 PM (ET)
Where: TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts

Point Spread: DAL +5/BOS -5 (Opened BOS -5 at Pinnacle)
Total: 216 (Opened at 217)
Money Line: Dallas 171/Boston -211
Power Rating: BOS -4

Probable Starting Lineups

Dallas Mavericks PG Luka Doncic, SG Jalen Brunson Q, SF Reggie Bullock, PF Dorian Finney-Smith Q, C Dwight Powell
Boston Celtics PG Marcus Smart, SG Jaylen Brown, SF Jayson Tatum, PF Al Horford, C Robert Williams

Key Injuries

Dallas Mavericks Dorian Finney-Smith: Arm (QUESTIONABLE) Jalen Brunson: Thigh (QUESTIONABLE) Theo Pinson: Finger (OUT) Marquese Chriss: Knee (OUT) Tim Hardaway Jr.: Foot (OUT)

Boston Celtics Aaron Nesmith: Ankle (OUT)

The Boston Celtics host the Dallas Mavericks in a Non-Conference matchup. Tip-off is set for 04:30 PM ET at the TD Garden.

Recent Form

The Dallas Mavericks come into this game with an overall record of 41-26, placing them 5th in the Western Conference. So far, Dallas is above .500 on the road, holding a record of 18-14. Over their last five games, the Mavericks have played well, picking up 4 wins. In this stretch, Dallas’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 107.0 points per game. Combined, the Mavericks’ last five opponents are giving up 111.0 points per contest. The Mavericks have been picking up wins while holding opponents to an average of 107.0 points per game, similar to their season average of 103.7. In the Dallas Mavericks’ most recent game, Dallas took down Houston by a score of 113-100

The Boston Celtics come into this game with an overall record of 41-27, placing them 5th in the Eastern Conference. So far, Boston is above .500 at home, holding a record of 24-11. The Celtics have played well over their last five games, picking up 5 wins. During this stretch, Boston is averaging 116.0 points per game, 6.0 points more than their season average of 109.7. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 112.0 points per contest. The Celtics have been picking up victories while holding opponents to an average of 106.0 points per game, similar to their season average of 104.0. In the Boston Celtics’ most recent game, Boston took down Detroit by a score of 114-103.

Reduced Juice Sportsbook

BAS Sportsbook
BET AT -105

Individual Player Analysis

As Dallas travels to take on the Boston Celtics, the Mavericks’ leading scorer is Luka Doncic. Through 48 games, Doncic is averaging 28 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 33.0% of his games. So far, the Celtics are allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 47.92% of their games, placing them 15th among NBA defenses. On the other side, Jayson Tatum leads the Celtics in scoring, averaging 26 points across his 62 games. Throughout the season, Tatum has outscored his season average in 47.0% of his outings. Given that Dallas’s defense has struggled to slow down their opponent’s top scorers, Jayson Tatum should be in line for a big performance. So far, the Mavericks have allowed their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 51.72% of their games, giving them a rank of 21st among NBA defenses.

Matchup Analysis

Heading into this matchup, the Boston Celtics are the more efficient team on both ends of the court. This scenario has taken place in 21 of Boston’s 64 games, leading to a winning percentage of 62%. So far, the Dallas Mavericks have played 5 games as the inferior offensive and defensive unit. In these instances, they have lost 5 times, by an average margin of -18.0 points.

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics have met up for 1 game. Dallas took game one by a score of 107-104.

How the Public is Betting the Mavericks vs Celtics

67% are betting the Celtics against the spread.
52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 217.0

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Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Mavericks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
  • Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
  • Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Heading into this matchup between Boston and Dallas, the Celtics are 5 point favorites at home. Each unit comes into the game playing well, as Dallas is 8-2 SU over their last 10, and Boston has rattled of 5 straight wins. The Mavericks will look to slow down the pace of play and turn this game into a defensive struggle. However, Boston is also a quality defensive team, ranking first in opponent shooting percentage. Look for this game to be played close throughout, as Dallas covers the spread on the road.