Dallas Mavericks vs. New Orleans Hornets Analysis and Prediction – Point Spread – Betting Odds

Dallas Mavericks (46-23 SU 28-40-1 ATS) vs. New Orleans Hornets (33-38 32-28-1 ATS) New Orleans Arena, New Orleans, LA 8 PM EST Monday March 22, 2010 on NBA TV
by Jason Green at Predictem.com

Point Spread: Mavicks -5/Hornets +5
Over/Under: 200.5

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Tonight in the Big Easy the fading New Orleans Hornets host the Dallas Mavericks. Chris Paul may be back in the lineup after missing the last 25 games after having knee surgery, but it may be too late, as the Hornets trail Portland by 9 games for the 8th and last playoff spot in the Western Conference.

The Mavs have been one of the hottest teams since the All Star break since they pulled the trigger on the 1st big trade of the season. They have moved up in the standings and are now in the 3rd position in the West only back of the Denver Nuggets.

The Mavs are coming off a loss and 8-2 in their last 10 games and the Hornets have lost 3 straight and are only 2-8 in their last 10 games.

This season the Hornets are 21-12 at home and the Mavericks are 22-12 on the road.

The Hornets hope Paul can come back tonight, as they really need to catch fire to have any chance to make the post-season. Since they are 9 games back and there are only 11 games left it is likely the Hornets will be watching the playoffs from home.

Peja Stojakovic (12.6 ppg) has an injured groin and he will be a game time decision tonight.

Dallas has a good chance to catch or pass Denver in the West, as 3 of their next 4 games are against teams that have losing records.

The Mavs have won both games against the Hornets at home this season, but lost their only game in New Orleans and Dallas has lost 5 straight on the road in this series.

In their last games the Mavs lost to the Boston Celtics 102-93 on Saturday. The high scorer for Dallas in the game was Dirk Nowitzki going for 28 points on 11/19 shooting. For the game the Mavs shot 37/80 from the floor for a FG% of 46.3%. On D the Mavs struggled allowing the Celtics to shoot 37/75 for a FG% of 52%.

The Hornets also lost on Saturday getting crushed by the Utah Jazz 106-86. The high scorer for New Orleans in the game was reserve Marcus Thornton going for 22 points on 9/17 shooting. For the game the Hornets shot 34/79 for a FG% of 43%. The Hornets left their defense at home allowing the Jazz to shoot 43/77 from the floor for a FG% of 55.8%.

This season the Mavs rank 12th in the league in scoring (101.7 ppg) while the Hornets rank 18th (99.8 ppg). On defense the Mavs rank 14th in opponents’ points allowed (99.6 ppg) and the Hornets only rank 22nd (102.4 ppg). Neither team has been good on the boards this season, as the Mavs have a rebounding differential of -1.1 rpg and the Hornets are at -1.8 rpg.

According to the Sagarin NBA ratings the Mavs rank 11th (93.05) and the Hornets rank 19th (88.74).

Dallas is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against teams with a winning home record, and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss.

Dallas has an Over record of 9-3 in their last 12 games, an Under record of 8-1-1 in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record, and an Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.

New Orleans is 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games, 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.

New Orleans has an Under is 8-2 in their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage above 60% and an Over record of 13-6 in their last 19 games following a loss.

Dallas is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against New Orleans.

On the injury front PG Chris Paul and SF Peja Stojakovic are day-to-day for New Orleans while Dallas is not reporting any significant injuries.

Jason’s Pick: Despite the team’s woes, New Orleans isn’t half bad at home and Dallas has had issues winning at N.O. recently. There’s some nice value here with the +5. Take the Hornets to cover the spread.