Denver Nuggets vs. Portland Trail Blazers Total Pick

by | Feb 27, 2022 | nba

Denver Nuggets (34-25 SU, 27-31-1 ATS) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (25-35 SU, 25-34-1 ATS)

When: Sunday, February 27th, 2022, 9:00 pm (ET)

Where: Moda Center, Portland, OR

TV: NBA League Pass

Point Spread: DEN -8/POR +8 (Opened Den -8 at MyBookie - Use bonus code PREDICT100 to receive a special 100% cash bonus!)

Total: 230.5 (Opened at 230.5)

Money Line: DEN -340/POR +270

Power Rating: DEN -7

Probable Starting Lineups

Denver Nuggets: PG Monte Morris, SG Will Barton, SF Aaron Gordon, PF Jeff Green, C Nikola Jokic

Portland Trail Blazers: PG Anfernee Simons, SG CJ Elleby, SF Josh Hart, PF Justise Winslow, C Drew Eubanks

Key Injuries

Denver Nuggets: C Zeke Nnaji *Out* (Knee), F Vlatko Cancar *Out* (Foot), F Michael Porter Jr. *Out* (Back), G Jamal Murray *Out* (Knee)

Portland Trail Blazers: F Greg Brown *Questionable* (Illness), F Justise Winslow *Questionable* (Illness), C Jusuf Nurkic *Out* (Foot), G Eric Bledsoe *Out* (Achilles), F Joe Ingles *Out* (ACL), F Nassir Little *Out* (Shoulder), G Didi Louzada *Out* (Knee), G Damian Lillard *Out* (Abdominal)

Recent Form

The Denver Nuggets head into Portland with a 35-25 record and sit 6th in the Western Conference. The Nuggets had a slow start to the month with three straight losses but have since gone on an impressive 7-1 run in their last eight games. After being carried by their stellar defense for most of the season, it has been the Denver offense to thank in recent games as they’ve edged out teams in high-scoring affairs. Going into Portland for this contest, the initial consensus is “Nuggets by a million” given the injury bug that has hit them, but the Trail Blazers have played upset to some good teams over the last few weeks. Given the defensive struggle of the Nuggets during their win streak, I’m concerned that they may fall victim to another Portland upset, especially coming off a game last night, meaning no rest. While there is cause for concern moving forward defensively, one area that hasn’t fallen apart is defending the three-point shot. The Nuggets have allowed just 30.1% from range in their last three games, which is 3rd best over that stretch. Shutting down the Portland perimeter will be key in this game as they are one of the better three-point shooting teams this season, shooting 36.5% from range at home. Comparing roster to roster, the Nuggets are the far more talented team from top to bottom, but another defensively poor outing could be enough to let this one get away from them in the end. Denver is led by Nikola Jokic, who is averaging 26.0 PPG. The Nuggets’ offense finds themselves in the 13th spot as they average 110.3 PPG. Defensively, they’ve slid out of the top 10 to the 12th spot as they give up 107.9 PPG.

The Portland Trail Blazers come into this game with a 25-35 record and sit 10th in the Western Conference. The Trail Blazers have found new life as they come in winners of four of their last five games and hold the last spot currently for the play-in tournament in the West. With Damian Lillard still out and CJ McCollum traded away among other key contributors, we’ve seen a much different face to this Trail Blazers team. In their last five games, a player we’ve seen take on a large role after coming off the bench to start the season is Anfernee Simons. Simons has averaged 29 PPG in their last five games and has been a solid one-two punch with center Jusuf Nurkic, who is now out with a foot injury. A major part of the team’s recent success has been their ability to come out efficient in the first half of their games. In fact, over their last three games, Portland is 2nd in the league in first-half points, averaging 65.3 points. They will need to get off to a hot start once again and take advantage of a Nuggets team that has allowed 60.0 points in the first half in their last three games to give themselves a chance in the final quarter. The Portland offense currently sits in the 20th spot as they average 108.0 PPG. Defensively, they are 25th as they allow 112.4 PPG.

Nuggets on the Road

The Denver Nuggets come in with an 18-15 road record as they have won their last three road games. Two of those wins came by just one point, though their last road game against the Kings was an 18-point win. Along with their ability to get in the win column, so have the Nuggets been a good choice for bettors. Denver is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games and is also 5-0 ATS in their last five road games. While an 8-point spread isn’t too tall of a task, their recently close road games, along with the upward trend of the Trail Blazers, have me hesitant to back them.

Get $60 of FREE member picks & predictions

(NO commitments. NO Credit Card. NO Salesman.)

Trail Blazers at Home

The Trail Blazers started hot at home this season but have since fallen to a 16-17 record at Moda Center. Their last two home wins came over two struggling teams in the Lakers and Knicks before getting trounced by the Warriors on Thursday in a 37-point loss. Much as their play has been inconsistent this season, so has been their ability to cover the spread at home. In their last seven home games, the Trail Blazers are 2-5 ATS. They have also struggled against good road teams as they are 1-6-1 ATS when facing a team with a winning road record in their last eight home games. While their upsets over the last few weeks have been impressive, it is still too small of a sample size to back them as the Nuggets offense has been rolling and could run away with this game if Portland’s three-ball goes cold in this game.

The Historicals

Sunday night will be the fourth time the Nuggets and Trail Blazers meet this season. The Nuggets have won two of the first three contests this season, including a blowout 140-108 win last month. Dating back to last season, Denver comes in winners of four of their last six games against Portland.

How the Public is Betting the Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers

53% are betting the Trail Blazers against the spread.

52% are wagering on the game to go under the posted total of 230.5.

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • The Denver Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.
  • The Denver Nuggets are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games playing on 0 days’ rest.
  • The Portland Trail Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
  • The Portland Trail Blazers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
  • Over is 3-0-1 in the Nuggets’ last four games as a favorite.
  • The Under is 3-0-1 in the Trail Blazers last four games as a home underdog.
  • The Denver Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. Portland.

Collin’s Pick for Nuggets/Trail Blazers

This Western Conference matchup features the Nuggets, who aspire to make a deep postseason run, while the Trail Blazers are fighting to make the play-in tournament. The Denver offense has carried them over the last few weeks as they continue to win games, so once their defense sorts itself out, they could be a scary team in the West. The Trail Blazers roster has been a revolving door this season with injuries and new faces from trades. With neither team giving me enough confidence to back them against the spread, I’m looking at the total for this game. Though the Denver offense has been great lately, they will be playing back-to-back nights, which often leads to a slower game with fewer points scored. I also see the Nuggets defense finding some life again as they face a Portland squad that is still finding their bearings with their roster. Take the under on the 230.5 total. Bet your Denver/Portland pick and ALL your basketball predictions for FREE this week by taking advantage of a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $1000 at Betnow Sportsbook!