Hawks vs. Heat Game 1 Predictions

by | Last updated Apr 17, 2022 | nba

Atlanta Hawks (45-39 SU, 39-45-0 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (53-29 SU, 46-35-1 ATS)
When: Sunday April 17 2022, 01:00 PM (ET)
Where: FTX Arena, Miami, Florida

Point Spread: ATL +7/MIA -7 (Opened at MIA -6.5)
Total: 219.5 (Opened at 215.5)
Money Line: Atlanta 223/Miami -278
Power Rating: MIA -7

Probable Starting Lineups

Atlanta Hawks PG Trae Young, SG Kevin Huerter, SF De’Andre Hunter, PF Danilo Gallinari, C Onyeka Okongwu
Miami Heat PG Kyle Lowry, SG Max Strus, SF Jimmy Butler, PF P.J. Tucker P, C Bam Adebayo Off Inj

Key Injuries

Atlanta Hawks Lou Williams: Back (OUT) John Collins: Foot (QUESTIONABLE) Clint Capela: Knee (OUT) Chaundee Brown: Illness (OUT)

Miami Heat Haywood Highsmith: Hip (QUESTIONABLE) Bam Adebayo: Illness (PROBABLE) Markieff Morris: Hip Flexor (QUESTIONABLE) Dewayne Dedmon: Ankle (QUESTIONABLE) Tyler Herro: Knee (QUESTIONABLE) P.J. Tucker: Calf (PROBABLE)

The Miami Heat host the Atlanta Hawks in a Eastern-Conference matchup. Tip-off is set for 01:00 PM ET at the FTX Arena.

Recent Form

The Atlanta Hawks come into this game with an overall record of 43-39, placing them 10th in the Eastern Conference. Throughout the season, Atlanta has struggled in their 42 road contests, sitting at 17-25. Over their last five games, the Hawks have played well, picking up 4 wins. During this stretch, Atlanta is averaging 119.0 points per game, 5.0 points more than their season average of 114.1. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 111.0 points per contest. Atlanta comes into this game also playing well defensively, holding their opponents to just 107.0 points per game. An improvement on their season average of 112.1. In the Atlanta Hawks’ most recent game, Atlanta took down Cleveland by a score of 107-101

The Miami Heat come into this game with an overall record of 53-29, placing them 1st in the Eastern Conference. So far, Miami is above .500 at home, holding a record of 29-12. The Heat have played well over their last five games, picking up 4 wins. During this stretch, Miami is averaging 122.0 points per game, 12.0 points more than their season average of 110.0. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 112.0 points per contest. Even though the Heat have been adding to the win column, their opponents have had no trouble scoring the ball, averaging 113.0 points per game, up from Miami’s usual rate of 105.6. In the Miami Heat’s most recent game, the team fell to Orlando by a score of 125-111.

Individual Player Analysis

As Atlanta travels to take on the Miami Heat, the Hawks’ leading scorer is Trae Young. Through 75 games, Young is averaging 28 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 51.0% of his games. Against the Heat, Young will need to be on top of his game as Miami is allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their average in 39.0% of their games, placing them in the top 10. On the other side, Jimmy Butler leads the Heat in scoring, averaging 21 points across his 58 games. Throughout the season, Butler has outscored his season average in 50.0% of his outings. However, if he hopes to add to this total, Butler will need to do so against a Hawks defense that has been tough on their opponent’s top scorers. So far, leading scores have surpassed their season average at a rate of just 47.76%. This figure is good for a rank of 10th in the league.

Matchup Analysis

The Hawks come into this game as the more efficient offensive team, averaging 113.1 points per 100 possessions. When playing as the superior offensive unit, Atlanta is winning at a rate of 38%. These victories are coming by an average margin of 11.0 points. On the other side, the Heat hold the advantage on the defensive end of the floor. So far, they have played 37 games as the better defensive team, picking up 29 wins (78%).

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat have met up for 4 games. In their last meeting, Miami picked up a 113-109 win.

How the Public is Betting the Hawks vs Heat

67% are betting the Heat against the spread.
52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 219.5

More Picks: Get Joe’s ‘Brooklyn at Boston Prediction ATS >>>

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Hawks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
  • Hawks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
  • Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

In the opening game of the first-round matchup between the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks, the Heat enter as 7-point favorites. This ATS line is a wide margin compared to the spreads in the two team’s previous matchup. In the regular season, the Heat covered in 3 of 4 games. This matchup will come down to if the Hawks can defend at the same level as Miami. Throughout the regular season, the Heat defended the three-point line at an elite level, holding their opponents to just 33.9% shooting from outside. In what should be a surprisingly competitive series for a 1/8 matchup, look for Miami to ride the home crowd’s momentum, leading to a win and covering the spread.