L.A. Lakers (48-18 SU 28-36-2 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (18-47 SU 37-27-1 ATS) ORACLE Arena, Oakland, CA 10:30 PM EST Monday March 15, 2010 on ESPN
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Point Spread: Lakers -7.5 / Warriors +7.5
Over/Under: 223.5
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Tonight in the City by the Bay the Golden State Warriors host the defending champion L.A. Lakers. This Western Conference match up is more important for the Lakers since they do not have a huge lead in the conference any longer while the Warriors are headed for another losing season and another very high draft pick.
The Lakers won their last game, but had lost 3 straight before that and currently only lead Denver by 3 games and Dallas by 3.5 games in the Western Conference. The Lakers are 6-4 in their last 10 games and while the Warriors won their last game they are only 2-8 in their last 10.
This season the Warriors are 14-19 at home and the Lakers are 18-13 on the road.
Golden State will have to get huge games from Stephen Curry (16.2 ppg) and Monta Ellis (25.6 ppg). Both players had big games in their last wins, but each has struggled in the 2 games against the Lakers this season. Curry has only averaged 13 ppg on 34.8% shooting and Ellis has averaged 20 ppg, which is almost 6 ppg less than his season average.
L.A. has won 8 straight games over Golden State and they have toasted the Warriors on offense in that span averaging 121 ppg.
The Warriors will have to shoot lights out and really score a ton of points tonight since they are giving up the most ppg this season.
Not only are the Warriors bad on defense they are the worst rebounding team in the league. That is not good facing the Lakers’ 7-foot duo of Andrew Bynum (14.9 ppg 8.2 rpg) and Pau Gasol (16.9 ppg 11 rpg). Golden State must put bodies on these guys and not allow them to kill them on the glass.
In their last game the Lakers beat the Philadelphia 76ers 102-96 on Friday night. Yeah, Kobe Bryant was the high scorer for L.A. in the game going for 21 points on 7/16 shooting and he also grabbed 10 rebounds. For the game the Lakers shot the ball well going 40/81 for a FG% of 49.4%. On defense the Lakers allowed the 76ers to shoot 34/80 for a FG% of 42.5%.
The Warriors won their last game beating the Toronto Raptors 124-112 on Saturday night. Stephen Curry was the high scorer for Golden State going for 35 points on 13/21 shooting including hitting on 5/8 of his 3-point bombs. For the game the Warriors shot 45/95 from the floor for a FG% of 47.4%. On defense the Warriors allowed the Raptors to shoot 43/76 for a FG% of 56.6%.
This season the Warriors rank 3rd in scoring (107.4 ppg) and the Lakers rank 6th (102.6 ppg). On defense the Lakers rank 10th in opponents’ points allowed (96.6 ppg) and the Warriors rank dead last (111.2 ppg). The Lakers have been solid on the boards this season with a rebounding differential of +1.8 rpg while the Warriors are at -8.9 rpg.
According to the Sagarin NBA ratings the Lakers rank 2nd (96.12) and the Warriors rank 25th (85.79).
Golden State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games against teams with a winning road record, and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Golden State has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games, and Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog, and an Over record of 8-3 in their last 11 games as a home underdog.
L.A. is 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record, and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
L.A. has an Under record of 11-4 in their last 15 games and an Under record of 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
On the injury front PG Jordan Farmar and SG Kobe Bryant are day-to-day for L.A. and SG Monta Ellis and C Ronny Turiaf are day-to-day for Golden State.
Jason’s Pick: I believe the Warriors will shoot 40% or less in this game which should keep the total a little bit under the posted 223.5. Take the UNDER.
