Los Angeles Clippers vs. Golden State Warriors Pick
Los Angeles Clippers (19-13 SU, 18-14 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (22-11 SU, 14-19 ATS)
When: Sunday, December 23rd, 2018 – 8:30 PM ET
Where: Oracle Arena – Oakland, CA
By: Keith Franks, NBA Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: DAL +10.5 / GS -10.5 (Mybookie Sportsbook)
Power Rankings: Golden State -12
Takeaways From Los Angeles and Golden State’s Most Recent Games
The Clippers enter off a two-game winning streak with a win at home yesterday against one of the better teams in the West this season, the Denver Nuggets. As a two-point favorite the Clips honed their home court advantage to produce a dominant 132-111 win. Lob City has been in good form against the spread as they have gone 3-1 ATS in their previous outings.
The Warriors enter in off a 120-116 win at home last night when they hosted the menacing Dallas Mavericks. Though the Warriors got the victory they failed to cover yet again as an 11-point favorite. The result has diminished Golden State to 1-5 ATS in their last six fixtures overall.
How the Public is Betting the Los Angeles-Golden State Game
Currently, 60% of the betting public are taking back the points to the Clippers spotted on behalf of the Warriors. Despite this, we have not seen any line movements occur yet as a result.
Though Golden State is known as the biggest dog in the NBA yard, one could have fooled Lob City into thinking so. The Clippers and Warriors share a long-documented rivalry that is rooted in their fierce divisional play. The two teams have split the last four meetings between each other. Most recently, Los Angeles earned a dramatic 121-116 win over the Warriors in overtime in the City of Angels on November 12th.
There are no recent storylines or prevailing injuries that either team are dealing with now as Clippers Forward Luc Mbah a Moute and Warriors Center have been on the injury report for months now.
Los Angeles Makes Their Living Downtown
The story line surrounding the Clippers’ success has been their high-scoring offense that averages a fourth-ranked 115.2 points per game. Anchored in stellar perimeter play, the Clippers have also fostered a 37.4% three-point field goal percentage that also places them fourth in the NBA. The problem for the resurgent Clippers in this spot is that they are against a Golden State team that simply does it better and offer only the 25th ranked scoring defense (114.2 points per game) to quell the onslaught of the defending champions.
Can Golden State Turn Lob City into Brick City?
The W’s remain lights out in the shooting department as they own the best field goal percentage (48.5%) and second-best three-point field percentage (38.5%) in the league which makes them a dreadful match-up for a team like Lob City who hangs their hat on their shooting acumen. The Warriors are averaging 115.6 points per game which places them third overall in that discipline once again providing them an edge against their divisional rivals. Moreover, the Warriors can shut down the Clippers from outside potentially as they are third in the NBA in opponents shooting from beyond the arc at 32.9%. Another outside variable is free throw shooting as the Warriors are the best in the league in that arena (83%) while they are second in opponent shooting from the charity stripe (73.7%). Golden State has all the bases covered if this game boils down to efficiency in shooting which is bad news for Lob City.
Several betting trends will entice action upon the Clippers in this market. First, the Clippers have covered in the previous three meetings between both parties. Moreover, Los Angeles is 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests in Oakland.
Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Golden State -10.5
Targeting overreactions is an efficient practice and approach in sports handicapping. The result attained by the Clippers last night alone will induce a lot of attention as a standalone outcome. However, when you factor in Los Angeles’ performance against the spread as of recent and against the Warriors overall, the Clippers look like easy money here with a hearty helping of points. However, the opposite is likely the case. Though we have highlighted the propensity for the Warriors to be overvalued as a whole (especially when they are at home) in previous analyses, the opposite is likely the case here as they have been a liability to takers as of late across the board. In this series, they have been anything but an asset and as a result the Warriors are in position to be short-sold. Most sportsbooks would agree with this as they have priced the Warriors as a bigger favorite and thus we have an opportunity to step in on a rare value play next to the defending champs’ name. The Warriors are the better team on both sides of the ball and they will give their arch-rivals an early Christmas present of a good old-fashioned blowout.