Orlando Magic vs. Toronto Raptors Pick
Orlando Magic (43-40 SU, 46-36-1 ATS) vs. Toronto Raptors (58-25 SU, 38-45 ATS)
When: Tuesday, April 16th, 2019 – 8:00 PM ET
Where: Scotiabank Arena – Toronto, ON
TV: TNT / TSN / FSN
By: Keith Franks, NBA Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: ORL +10 / TOR -10
Power Rankings: Toronto -2
Takeaways From Orlando vs. Toronto Game One
Game One on Saturday resulted in the Magic staging an upset of the Raptors by a score of 104-101 despite Orlando closing as a 9.5-point underdog. That was a nice win for team Franks! Despite shooting just 35.6% from three-point range this season, the Magic dialled up for 48.3% from beyond the arc to pull the shocker in the Great White North. Veteran guard D.J. Augustin fired up the game-winner with 3.4 seconds left to get the Magic the Game One win. The victory extended Orlando’s overall win and cover streak to five games.
How the Public is Betting the Orlando-Toronto Game
61% of the betting public are keen on the Magic here with the points. In light of this lean, the line has gone in the opposite direction. Toronto opened as a 9.5-point favorite but early action on the Raptors caused the line to rise by half of a point to where Toronto is now spotting double-digits to the visitors.
Neither the Magic nor Raptors have expressed any injury concerns to key personnel heading into Game Two of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals.
Rest Advantages and Concerns
Both teams will be playing this game on three days of rest. For Orlando, the Magic will delight in the fact that the series will be heading to their barn for two games starting on Friday. Extending back to the regular season, this is the Magic’s fourth consecutive road game.
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Can Orlando’s Defense Contain Toronto’s Offense?
Repeating a 48.3% shooting performance from three-point range will be hard to replicate for the Magic so they will have to turn their calling card which has helped them all season, their defense. The Magic finished with a top-five scoring defense that surrendered just 106.6 points per contest (5th in the NBA). In Game One, the Magic’s defense clearly set the tone as they held Toronto’s offense to just 101 points. As mentioned in our Game One breakdown, Toronto’s offense normally scores 114.4 points per contest which placed them eighth in the league at the conclusion of the regular season. The Magic will once again hone this strategy to put themselves in position to stage yet another upset against the Raptors. Orlando will also look to exploit their edge in the turnover department here to be competitive in their follow-up. In Game One, Toronto committed 13 turnovers to Orlando’s 11 which ended up being instrumental in a game that was settled by a mere possession.
Can the Raptors Find Their Stroke And Limit Magic’s Field Goal Successes?
Overall, the Raptors are the better team in terms of field goal proficiency and also limiting their opponents’ shooting operations. The Raptors finished fifth in the NBA in field goal efficiency (47.4%) while also holding the opposition’s field goal efficiency to 44.9% (5th overall). In Game One, Toronto was successful in this endeavor as they outshot Orlando when they hit 45.5% of their field goal attempts to the Magic’s 40% field goal percentage. The key difference maker as mentioned was Orlando’s magical ability to dial up from downtown in what was nothing short of an exceptional performance from three-point range. Normally, Toronto holds opponents to 34.5% from three-point range (8th in the NBA). Should Toronto be able to mitigate Orlando’s three-point attack and cause the Magic to shoot 34.7% as they normally do from beyond the arc (11th in the NBA), the Raptors should avenge the loss in Game One with ease here.
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The Historical / Betting Trends
The Game One victory marks Orlando’s second consecutive win in the Great White North this season and their third cover in the last four meetings between these two sides. Overall, the Magic are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. For Over/Under players, the Under is 6-2 ATS in the last eight matches between these two opponents.
Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Toronto -10
Targeting overreactions is a great strategy to incorporate in one’s betting acumen. The situation presented in Game Two has all the makings of an opportunity to target an overreaction and cash in. Despite the successful upset bid by Orlando in Game One, the market is reluctant to buy into the Magic’s potential of doing so in Game Two. It is for this reason that we saw the line open a full point higher compared to the initial price in Game One. However, to the public eye the Magic look like easy money here with the enhanced points. That is why we have seen much of the consensus take to them as the dog here and as I have said previously that raises a huge red flag. After all, there is no such thing as easy money when it comes to sports betting. However, my money is on the Raptors here as I think they can easily win this game and cover. Why? Because Toronto fell victim to an extraordinary set of circumstances in Game One where Orlando caught fire from three-point range. I think the Magic will come back to Earth and if they do, that plays perfectly into Toronto’s hands. Nevertheless, many pundits will declare that Orlando has Toronto’s number and that the Great White North doesn’t affect the Magic. On the contrary, this venue will serve as the prime opportunity for the Raptors and their faithful to remind Orlando who runs the yard in Toronto. I am laying the points.