Milwaukee Bucks vs. Toronto Raptors Pick – Game 3

Milwaukee Bucks (70-23 SU, 57-32-4 ATS) vs. Toronto Raptors (66-30 SU, 44-52 ATS)
When: Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 7:00 PM ET
Where: Scotiabank Arena – Toronto, ON
TV: TNT

Point Spread: MIL +3 / TOR -3 (Intertops)
Total: 220.5

Takeaways From Game Two

As I had said in my write-up of Game Two, you could expect the Bucks to offer up a better performance and look far more impressive in comparison to their Game One effort. Milwaukee did just that as they never trailed in the contest and led by as much as 28 points. The Deer were easy money closing as a 6.5-point home favorite when they trampled the Raptors by a score of 125-103.

How the Public is Betting Game Three

The market opened with the Raptors listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. As a result of early action rolling in on the Dinos, the line has moved upward by half of a point to where Toronto now sits as a -3 favorite. To coincide with this narrative, 70% of the betting public are with keen to spot the points with Toronto.

The Historicals / Betting History

The Bucks continued to show their dominance against the Raptors and expanded their profitability yet again as they have now won six of the last seven games between these two teams. Over this span, the Deer have also produced a 6-1 ATS record.

Injury Concerns

Neither the Raptors nor have the Bucks expressed any injury concerns to key personnel heading into Game Three of the Eastern Conference Finals.

Rest Advantages and Concerns

After wrapping up a two-game stint in Milwaukee on Friday, both teams will be playing two contests in Toronto. Game Four will take place on Tuesday. Given how Toronto has been strong on their own floor this season with a 37-11 SU, many pundits see this as the optimal chance for the Raptors to claw their way back into this series.

Can Milwaukee Bully Toronto On The Glass To Go Up 3-0?

I have made mention of this in the analysis of both Game One and Game Two that the Bucks finished the season as the top rebounding team in the NBA. The Bucks averaged 49.7 total rebounds per game while the Raptors finished 17th in the league in overall rebounding (45.2 total boards per match). In Game One, the Bucks outrebounded the Raptors 60-46, and the rest was history. In Game Two, the Deer once again threw their weight around as they outmuscled the Raptors on the glass by a margin of 53-40. Clearly, the Bucks being the more physical team has been instrumental in Milwaukee building a 2-0 lead. The Bucks will once again make this their focus in Game Three to stage the “upset” and build a comfortable three-game lead.

Can the Raptors Play More Responsible Basketball In Game Three?

A key narrative working against the Raptors in Game Two was how they handled the basketball. The Raptors turned the ball over on 14 occasions while Milwaukee committed just seven turnovers. Given the fact that the Bucks finished the season with the best scoring offense in the NBA (118.1 points per game), playing irresponsible basketball will not fare well for any team that gives Milwaukee more chances to hurt them. In addition, Milwaukee was able to shoot better from three-point land in Game Two as they hit 31.7% of their attempts compared to attaining a 25% three-point percentage in Game One. However, Toronto hit just 31.2% of their three-point attempts. As I had mentioned previously, the Raptors own an edge in perimeter play that they should take advantage of. The Raptors finished sixth in the league with a 36.6% three-point percentage while up against a Bucks team that was 22nd in the NBA in opponent field goal percentage (36.1%). If the Raptors do not cash in on this angle, they can easily fall behind 3-0 and end up staring elimination straight in the face.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Milwaukee +125 (Money Line)

I know what a lot of people are thinking here: that no one beats Milwaukee at home and the Raptors will bounce back here because Game Three is in Toronto. Unfortunately, I am not one of those people. Very simply, when you back the Dinos on their own court, you can expect to pay a premium to do so. It is for this reason that the Raptors have gone 22-26 ATS in Toronto this season despite owning one of the best home records in the league.

Nevertheless, the Raptors have looked beatable in Toronto throughout the playoffs. After all, Toronto has lost a game on its own court in each of the first two series of the post-season, including falling prey to a 104-101 upset bid at the hands of the Orlando Magic in Game One where the Raptors closed nearly a double-digit favorite (-9.5). The Raptors dropped one to Philly in the Eastern Conference Semifinals and could have easily lost Game Seven had Kawhi Leonard’s buzzer-beater bounced out of the hoop and had the contest gone to overtime. Moreover, Milwaukee is still an impressive 31-14 SU on the road this season, they won both games of the Eastern Conference Semifinals in Boston (another notoriously hostile place) by an average of 9.5 points, and they beat the Raptors twice in their own stead in the regular season (winning by an average of 9 points). The Deer know how to win in the Great White North, and given how they played in Game Two, there is no reason to suspect a let-down here in Game Three. This simply boils down to getting the better team at the better price, and that is how I am playing this one. Forget the points, give me Milwaukee outright on the Money Line at guys get the best line on this game at Bookmaker!