Pelicans vs. Warriors Predictions 11/5/21

by | Nov 5, 2021 | nba

New Orleans Pelicans (1-8 SU, 4-5-0 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (6-1 SU, 4-3-0 ATS)

When: Friday, Nov. 5th, 2021, 10:00 pm (ET)

Where: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: NO +8.5/GSW -8.5. (Opened at -9)

Total: O/U 219.5 (Opened at 219.5)

Money Line: NO +320/GSW -420

Power Rating: GSW -9
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Probable Starting Lineups

New Orleans Pelicans: PG Devonte Graham, SG Josh Hart, SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker, SF Garrett Temple, C Jonas Valanciunas

Golden State Warriors: PG Stephen Curry, SG Jordan Poole, SF Andrew Wiggins, PF Draymond Green, C Kevon Looney

Key Injuries

New Orleans Pelicans: Brandon Ingram *Questionable* (Hip), Herbert Jones *Out* (Concussion), Daulton Hommes *Out* (Leg), Zion Williamson *Out* (Foot)

Golden State Warriors:Gary Payton *Questionable* (Ankle), Klay Thompson *Out*, James Wiseman *Out*

Recent Form

The New Orleans Pelicans continue their slide and fall to the worst record in the NBA at 1-8. At the beginning of their five-game skid, they were able to keep games close, but in the last two games against the Kings and Suns, they lost by double digits. It is safe to say that without Zion, this team has lost its identity. Brandon Ingram still leads the squad averaging 25 points per game despite not suiting up the last three games with a hip injury. In the last three games without Ingram, Valanciunas has stepped up on both sides of the court, averaging 19.2 PPG and grabbing 14.1 rebounds per game. The Pelicans have a -8 differential with 103.2 PPG on offense as they give up 111.2 PPG on defense.

The Golden State Warriors, through seven games, have one of the best records in the league at 6-1. Last time on the court against the Hornets, the Warriors showed out with 114 points and kept the hottest offense in the league to just 92 points. Steph Curry is averaging 26.7 points a game, which has him in the top 10 currently. The Warriors have the third-best differential in the league with 9.9. Offensively, Golden State averages 111.3 PPG and gives up 101.4 PPG on defense.

Could Get Ugly Early

The firepower of the Golden State offense has been on display through their first seven games. Having Steph Curry leading the team speaks for itself, but he’s had help with two of the other four starters averaging double-digit points in Poole and Wiggins. Between these three and the rest of the Warriors offense, they waste no time in the 1st quarter by getting hot to start every game. The Warriors average 31.4 points in the first quarter, which is the second-best in the league. Also worth mentioning, they score 27.9 points in the third quarter. So, to start the game and coming out of the break, the Warriors come out hot and put-up points at will. As we look at the opposing side, the Pelicans only outscore the Warriors in the second. If math serves me right, any team that wins three out of four quarters has the chance to win the game.

Closing Out Games

The 1-8 start by the Pelicans falls short of expectations for any NBA team at this point in the season. As I look back at their last three games, I noticed a trend that plays in part to their five-game skid, and that’s 4th quarter scoring. In the last three games, the Pelicans were outscored in the final quarter. In the last two games, they failed to score 20 points in the 4th. On top of their inability to score in the 4th, they give up 29.9 points per game in the final quarter. The combination of these two stats can only lead to letting games slip away down the stretch and ultimately plays a large part in their 1-8 record.

Looking at the Golden State Warriors in both 4th quarter stats mentioned above, we see a far more successful team. The Warriors have been more consistent scoring points in the 4th quarter by averaging 27.3 points. Closing out games has been the Warriors specialty, as they give up just 23.5 points in the 4th quarter, which is second-best in the league. Should the Warriors hold any kind of lead going into the 4th quarter Friday night, the score could go from bad to ugly as they coast to another win in the final minutes.

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Taking Care of the Ball

One area that the Warriors and Pelicans share struggles in is taking care of the ball. Both teams find themselves in the bottom half of the league in turnovers. New Orleans gives the ball away 16.4 times a game, and right behind them, the Warriors average 16.6 turnovers a game. Even though the Pelicans have the slight edge in this statistic, I still consider it a win in the end for the Warriors. Given the offensive firepower and great defense the Warriors have shown to start the year, if we see an even match in the turnovers department, the Warriors will get just as many chances back as they give up.

The Historicals

Last season, the Warriors and Pelicans played each other three times in which the Warriors were victorious twice. Overall, in the past two years, these teams have gone back and forth, so there aren’t any steaks to take into consideration going into Friday night’s matchup. Looking back at the most recent game between these teams, the Warriors won a nail-biter 125-122. After further analysis of the game, it is worth mentioning that the Warriors were without Curry, Green, and Wiggins, yet managed to get the win.

How the Public is Betting the Pelicans vs. Warriors

86% are betting the Warriors against the spread.

59% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 219.5.

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • The Golden State Warriors are 8-2 ATS in their last ten home games.
  • The Golden State Warriors are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record in their previous five home games.
  • The New Orleans Pelicans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.
  • The New Orleans Pelicans are 2-5 ATS in their previous seven games as a road underdog.
  • The Under is 4-0 in the Pelicans’ last four games overall and the last four road games.
  • The Under is 6-0 in the Warriors’ last six games.
  • The Under is 7-0 in the Warriors’ past seven games as a favorite.

Collin’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Going into Friday’s game, we will see two teams on different spectrums of the NBA standings. Even though the Warriors no longer play in “Roaracle”, the Chase Center crowd makes it a difficult place for road teams to get a win, let alone a team like the one-win Pelicans. The current spread at 8.5 in favor of Golden State seems too nice for the Pelicans. Take the Golden State Warriors to cover the -8.5 spread. Given the recent trends as well and looking at the O/U of 219.5, I can see the Warriors holding up their end of the bargain, but the struggling Pelicans against a great Warriors defense will not. Take the under on the 219.5 total. Two for one on picks today! Question: Did you know you could be betting on games at -105 odds instead of -110? For those not aware, this means that you save $5 per $100 you’re trying to win. This amounts to MASSIVE savings over the course of a season! Dump your over-priced bookie TODAY and start betting at reduced odds!