Sacramento Kings vs. Denver Nuggets Predictions 2/26/22

by | Last updated Feb 26, 2022 | nba

Sacramento Kings (22-39 SU, 27-34-0 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (34-25 SU, 28-31-0 ATS)
When: Saturday February 26 2022, 09:00 PM (ET)
Where: Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado

Point Spread: SAC +9/DEN -9(Opened DEN -8.5 at )
Total: 235.5 (Opened at 235.5)
Money Line: Sacramento Kings +296/Denver Nuggets -378
Power Rating: DEN -6

Probable Starting Lineups

Sacramento Kings PG De’Aaron Fox, SG Justin Holiday, SF Harrison Barnes, PF Moe Harkless, C Domantas Sabonis
Denver Nuggets PG Monte Morris, SG Will Barton, SF Aaron Gordon, PF Jeff Green, C Nikola Jokic

Key Injuries

Kings Terence Davis: wrist (OUT)

Nuggets Vlatko Cancar: foot (OUT) DeMarcus Cousins: personal (QUESTIONABLE) Jamal Murray: knee (OUT) Zeke Nnaji: hamstring (QUESTIONABLE)

The Denver Nuggets host the Sacramento Kings in a Western Conference matchup. Tip-off is set for 9:00 PM ET at Ball Arena, Denver.

Recent Form

The Sacramento Kings come into this game with an overall record of 22-39, placing them 13rd in the Western Conference. Throughout the season, Sacramento has struggled in their 28 road contests, sitting at 7-21. Over the Kings’ last five games, they have picked up just 2 wins. During this stretch, Sacramento is averaging 114.0 points per game, 4.0 points more than their season average of 109.9. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 110.0 points per contest. In this recent cold stretch, the Kings are allowing an average of 118.0 points per game, similar to their usual rate of 115.1. In the Sacramento Kings’ most recent game, the team fell to Sacramento by a score of 128-110.

The Denver Nuggets come into this game with an overall record of 34-25, placing them 6th in the Western Conference. So far, Denver is above .500 at home, holding a record of 16-10. The Nuggets have played well over their last five games, picking up 4 wins. During this stretch, Denver is averaging 116.0 points per game, 6.0 points more than their season average of 110.2. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 108.0 points per contest. The Nuggets have been picking up victories while holding opponents to an average of 111.0 points per game, similar to their season average of 107.8. In the Denver Nuggets’ most recent game, Denver took down Sacramento by a score of 128-110.


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Individual Player Analysis

As Sacramento travels to take on the Denver Nuggets, the Kings’ leading scorer is De’Aaron Fox. Through 107 games, Fox is averaging 21 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 32.0% of his games. So far, the Nuggets are allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 50.0% of their games, placing them 17th among NBA defenses. On the other side, Nikola Jokic leads the Nuggets in scoring, averaging 26 points across his 53 games. Throughout the season, Jokic has outscored his season average in 42.0% of his outings. On the season, the Kings have allowed their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 48.84% of their games, giving them a rank of 13th among NBA defenses.

Matchup Analysis

Heading into this matchup, the Denver Nuggets are the more efficient team on both ends of the court. This scenario has taken place in 12 of Denver’s 53 games, leading to a winning percentage of 83%. So far, the Denver Nuggets have played 21 games as the inferior offensive and defensive unit. In these instances, they have lost 21 times, by an average margin of -15.0 points.

The Historicals

Tonight’s matchup between Sacramento and Denver is their third meeting of the season. So far, the Nuggets have picked up two wins.

How the Public is Betting the Kings vs Nuggets

67% are betting the Nuggets against the spread.
52% are wagering on the game to go under the posted total of 235.5

More Picks: Get Joe’s Spurs at Heat 2/26/22 Point Spread Pick >>>

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.
  • Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
  • Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Heading into this game, the Denver Nuggets have an overall ATS record of just 28-31. However, they have shown signs of improvement against the spread, covering in 7 of their past 10 games. Look for the Nuggets’ scoring efficiency to be too much to handle for a Kings unit looking to push the pace. Sacramento relies on playing at an up-tempo pace as they struggle to score efficiently. I expect Denver to take advantage of this with a win that covers the spread.