San Antonio Spurs (43-28 SU 36-35-1 ATS) vs. Boston Celtics (47-25 SU 29-41-1 ATS) TD Garden, Boston, MA 8 PM EST Sunday March 28, 2010 on ESPN
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Point Spread: Spurs +3.5 / Celtics -3.5
Betting on games on -110 to win $100 is the norm. Did you know that you can bet -105 to win that very same $100 at 5Dimes?
Tonight the Boston Celtics host the San Antonio Spurs and while both teams will make the playoffs every remaining game is important for each for playoff positioning. The Celtics have already locked up a post-season berth and are in 3rd place in the East one game ahead of the Hawks. The Celtics want to stay in 3rd so they will not have to play LeBron James and Cleveland in a possible 2nd round playoff match up.
The Spurs are not a lock for the playoffs, but they are in 8th place in the West with a 5.5 game lead over 9th place Memphis. San Antonio is tied with Portland for the 8th playoff spot and each will battle it to move up to 7th to avoid playing the Lakers in the 1st round of the playoffs.
Both teams are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
This season the Celtics are 23-12 at home and the Spurs are 17-17 on the road.
Many had written the Celtics off before the All Star break, but they are now healthy and are 15-7 since the break.
Paul Pierce (18.6 ppg) has been on fire as of late averaging 24 ppg in his last 6 games.
Manu Ginobili (15.8 ppg) has really stepped up his play since becoming a starter with Tony Parker out for the regular season. With Parker out Ginobili has averaged 23.8 ppg.
Boston has won 5 of their last 6 meetings against San Antonio.
Both teams win with defense, as each ranks in the top 8 in the league in opponents’ points allowed.
The Spurs are a much better rebounding team and if they can control the glass in this game they have a good chance to score an upset in Beantown tonight.
The Spurs are coming off an impressive win in their last game beating the Cleveland Cavaliers 102-97 on Friday night. The high scorer for San Antonio in the game was Manu Ginobili going for 30 points on 10/19 shooting including hitting on 3 of his 5 3-point bombs. For the game the Spurs shot 37/78 for a FG% of 47.4%. On defense the Spurs allowed the Cavaliers to shoot 38/80 from the floor for a FG% of 47.5%.
The Celtics also won on Friday night beating the Sacramento Kings 94-86. The high scorer for Boston in the game was Paul Pierce going for 22 points, but he was only 6/16 from the field. For the game the Celtics shot 36/90 for a FG% of 40%. On D the Celtics allowed the Kings to shoot 31/73 for a FG% of 42.5%.
This season the Spurs rank 14th in scoring (101.2 ppg) and the Celtics rank 19th (98.9 ppg). On defense the Celtics rank 3rd in the league in opponents’ points allowed (94.3 ppg) and the Spurs rank 8th (96.5 ppg). The Spurs have been a better team on the boards this season with a rebounding differential of +3.0 rpg while the Celtics are in the negative at -1.0 rpg.
According to the Sagarin NBA ratings the Celtics rank 6th (94.06) and the Spurs rank 9th (93.65).
San Antonio is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
San Antonio has an Over record of 4-1-1 in their last 6 games, an Under record of 7-2-1 in their last 10 games as a road underdog, and an Under record of 5-2 in their last 7 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Boston is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5, and 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage above 60%.
Boston has an Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage above 60% and an Under record of 8-2 in their last 10 games following a win.
On the injury front C Kendrick Perkins is day-to-day for Boston while San Antonio is not reporting any significant injuries.
Jason’s Pick: The Celtics are peaking at the right time and while San Antonio is also playing well they are only a .500 team on the road this season. Boston will win this game on D in a low scoring affair. The Celtics will win this game and cover the spread and I think the Under is also a solid pick.