San Antonio Spurs (50-32 SU 43-39 ATS) vs. Phoenix Suns (54-28 SU 47-34-1 ATS) US Airways Center, Phoenix, AZ 9 PM EST Monday May 5, 2010 on TNT
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Point Spread: Spurs +2.5 / Suns -2.5
Over/Under: 205.5
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The Suns lead this best of 7 series 1-0.
Phoenix won Game 1 by 9 points playing their style and unless the Spurs can play better defense they will be going home in a 0-2 hole in this series. The Spurs made quite a few mistakes and allowed the Suns to shoot almost 52% from the floor.
This season the Suns were 32-9 at home and the Spurs were 21-20 on the road.
The Suns did have 16 turnovers in Game 1, but other than that they played a great game with 27 fast break points and 56 points in the paint. Steve Nash had a big game with 33 points and 10 assists and Jason Richardson went for 27 points and hit 3/6 of his 3-pointers.
The Suns are now 30-6 this season when Richardson scores at least 20 points.
Amare Stoudamire was solid in the blocks scoring 23 points and pulling down 13 boards in Game 1. The Suns played a solid inside-outside game and if they repeat that performance tonight they will be in good shape.
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The Spurs have to shoot the 3 better tonight, as in Game 1 they only made 4/19 of their 3-pointers.
Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker each had at least 20 points in Game 1, but the other Spurs’ players did not pitch in and help. Starting PG George Hill had 9 points on 2/9 shooting and Richard Jefferson had 5 points on 1/3 shooting. Jefferson has had a disappointing season in the scoring department and San Antonio needs his offense, especially against a Suns team that can light up the scoreboard.
The Suns are trying to snap the Spurs’ streak of winning 4 straight playoff series against them.
The Suns beat the Spurs in Game 1 111-102 on Monday night. The high scorer for the Suns was Steve Nash going for 33 points on 13/19 shooting and for the Spurs Manu Ginobili was the high scorer going for 27 points on 9/20 shooting. For the game the Suns shot 41/79 from the floor for a FG% of 51.9% and the Spurs shot 38/83 for a FG% of 45.8%. The Suns had more rebounds in the game (44-38) and also had more turnovers (16-11).
According to the Sagarin NBA ratings the Suns rank 4th (95.16) and the Spurs rank 6th (94.16).
San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog, and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
San Antonio has an Under record of 6-1-1 in their last 8 games, an Under record of 8-2-2 in their last 12 road games, and an Under record of 4-1-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
Phoenix is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a win, and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Phoenix has an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 games and an Under record of 9-4-1 in their last 14 games following an ATS win.
Including Game 1 the last 4 games between these 2 teams have gone Over every time.
In the last 5 games between these 2 teams the favorite is 4-1 ATS.
On the injury front C Robin Lopez is Out for Phoenix while San Antonio is not reporting any significant injuries.
Jason’s Pick: The Spurs lost Game 1 against Dallas and then beat the Mavs in 6 games in their opening round series, but I think they will have a tougher time against a Suns team that is en fuego. The Suns will play another great game at home and take a 2-0 lead in this series winning tonight. They will run-and-gun and score and they will not only win, but they will cover the spread as well.
