Today’s NBA Picks: Mavs vs. Hornets

by | Mar 19, 2022 | nba

Dallas Mavericks (43-27 SU, 39-30-1 ATS) vs. Charlotte Hornets (35-35 SU, 38-30-2 ATS)
When: Saturday March 19 2022, 07:00 PM (ET)
Where: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, North Carolina
TV: BSSW-DAL

Point Spread: DAL -2/CHA +2 (Opened CHA u225.5 at WagerWeb)
Total: 225.5 (Opened at 1.5)
Money Line: Dallas Mavericks -127/Charlotte Hornets 106
Power Rating: DAL -4

Probable Starting Lineups

Dallas Mavericks PG Spencer Dinwiddie, SG Jalen Brunson, SF Luka Doncic, PF Dorian Finney-Smith, C Dwight Powell
Charlotte Hornets PG LaMelo Ball, SG Terry Rozier, SF Miles Bridges, PF PJ Washington, C Mason Plumlee

Key Injuries

Dallas Mavericks Reggie Bullock: Personal (QUESTIONABLE) Theo Pinson: Finger (OUT) Tim Hardaway Jr.: Foot (OUT)

Charlotte Hornets James Bouknight: Neck (OUT) Gordon Hayward: Ankle (OUT)

The Charlotte Hornets host the Dallas Mavericks in a Non-Conference matchup. Tip-off is set for 07:00 PM ET at the Spectrum Center.

Recent Form

The Dallas Mavericks come into this game with an overall record of 43-27, placing them 5th in the Western Conference. So far, Dallas is above .500 on the road, holding a record of 20-15. Over their last five games, the Mavericks have played well, picking up 3 wins. In this stretch, Dallas’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 100.0 points per game. Combined, the Mavericks’ last five opponents are giving up 109.0 points per contest. The Mavericks have been picking up wins, while holding opponents to an average of 104.0 points per game, similar to their season average of 103.8. In the Dallas Mavericks’ most recent game, the team fell to Philadelphia by a score of 111-101.

The Charlotte Hornets come into this game with an overall record of 35-35, placing them 9th in the Eastern Conference. On the season, Dallas has won exactly half of their 34 home matchups, sitting at 17-17. The Hornets have played well over their last five games, picking up 3 wins. During this stretch, Charlotte is averaging 123.0 points per game, 8.0 points more than their season average of 114.9. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 110.0 points per contest. The Hornets have been picking up victories while holding opponents to an average of 118.0 points per game, similar to their season average of 114.8. In the Charlotte Hornets’ most recent game, Charlotte took down Atlanta by a score of 116-106.

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Individual Player Analysis

As Dallas travels to take on the Charlotte Hornets, the Mavericks’ leading scorer is Luka Doncic. Through 51 games, Doncic is averaging 28 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 35.0% of his games. So far, the Hornets are allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 48.15% of their games, placing them 11th among NBA defenses. On the other side, Miles Bridges leads the Hornets in scoring, averaging 20 points across his 67 games. Throughout the season, Bridges has outscored his season average in 51.0% of his outings. However, if he hopes to add to this total, Bridges will need to do so against a Mavericks defense that has been tough on their opponent’s top scorers. So far, leading scores have surpassed their season average at a rate of just 25.45%. This figure is good for a rank for the top spot in the league.

Matchup Analysis

The Hornets come into this game as the more efficient offensive team, averaging 109.7 points per 100 possessions. When playing as the superior offensive unit, Charlotte is winning at a rate of 54%. These wins are coming by an average margin of 12.0 points. On the other side, the Mavericks hold the advantage on the defensive end of the floor. So far, they have played 27 games as the better defensive team, picking up 16 wins.

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the Dallas Mavericks and Charlotte Hornets have met up for 1 game. Dallas took game one by a score of 120-96.

How the Public is Betting the Mavericks vs Hornets

67% are betting the Mavericks against the spread.
52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 225.5

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Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
  • Mavericks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
  • Hornets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Hornets are 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Even though the Dallas Mavericks have been playing as well as anyone in the NBA, they must continue to pick up wins, as they are looking to move up the 4th seed in the Western Conference, assuring them home-court advantage. In a loaded Western Conference, getting an extra game at home, could be the difference in moving on to the second round. On the other side, Charlotte currently holds the final spot for the NBA play-in tournament. With a 5 game lead over the Knicks, they appear to have this seed locked up, but they are just 1.5 games behind the 8th seeded Nets. With Dallas entering as 2 point favorites, look for the Mavericks to pick up the win and cover the spread.