2023 AFC North Betting Preview – Season Win Bet Odds & Picks
If you are trying to find the best division in the NFL in 2023, look no further than the AFC North. Everyone knows the Bengals and the Ravens with Lamar Jackson are Super Bowl contenders. Meanwhile the Browns have an ultra-talented team and only need a top-shelf QB to lead them, and the Steelers have never had a losing season under Mike Tomlin. To go with the loaded talent in this division, they get to play the teams in the NFC West and AFC South – which should add to the win totals. Let’s look at how to play each team’s posted win total at Bovada Sportsbook (Home of the BEST live betting platform on the planet!), and maybe some other props available in the division.
Cincinnati Bengals: Over 11.5 +120
The Bengals and Joe Burrow have raised their game to become the primary contender for the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes, with Cincy winning 3 of their four games with KC over the last two seasons. This year the Super Bowl window is wide open for the Bengals, with all of their skill players back from last year and Burrow still on his rookie contract. The Bengals won their final eight regular season games and were on the verge of going to their second consecutive Super Bowl before falling short in Arrowhead. They are the only team in the AFC that has the offensive power to go toe-to-toe with KC and a defense that has proven they can slow the Chiefs down. The defense is very underrated, allowing the 5th fewest points in the league, but will have to overcome the loss of Safety Jessie Bates III. I think DC Lou Anarumo is a top 3 defensive mind, and I think he figures that out and the defense doesn’t miss a beat. It sounds like Burrow will be ready for week one after a calf injury, and I think the Bengals hit the ground running and don’t look back.
Baltimore Ravens: Under 9.5 +120
Lamar Jackson finally got the contract he has been asking for over the last two years, so it’s time for him to earn his money, and I’m betting against him and the Ravens. Jackson has never improved his ability to throw outside the hash marks, and this year new OC Todd Monken will rely on him to do just that. Baltimore added receivers with free agent Odell Beckham Jr. and rookie Zay Flowers, but Beckham’s best days are long behind him, and Flowers has a lot of question marks. J.K. Dobbins returned from a serious knee injury to lead the team in rushing last year, but he is now disgruntled with his contract situation, and there are no good backup options. The defense had questions last year until they traded for Roquan Smith in Week 9 and only gave up more than 20 points twice with Smith in the lineup. They have made some personnel moves in the secondary which leaves some holes but should still be a solid unit. I’m just not buying Baltimore this year. I think the change in the offensive scheme will not go well, and Jackson will struggle to stay healthy for 17 games. I also like Dobbins Under both touchdowns and rushing yards and Beckham Under both touchdowns and receiving yards.
Cleveland Browns: Over 9.5 +100
My favorite bet in this division is the Browns Over 9.5 wins at even money. Cleveland has 52 solid players on their roster and just needs their QB to earn his huge salary to win 10+ games. Watson struggled in his six starts to close out the 2022 campaign, but that was to be expected after sitting out since 2020 and learning a new offense. I look for an improved Cleveland passing attack, with the reliable Amari Cooper as WR1, newly acquired Elijah Moore on the other side, and Donovan Peoples-Jones serving as the deep threat. Moore is the wildcard here. He was very highly regarded when he came into the league but never could break out with the Jets and all of the issues they have in their passing game. Nick Chubb returns to keep the chains moving behind a top 5 offensive line. The defense will again be led by top-shelf pass rusher Myles Garrett, but this year he will have a stud pass rusher opposite of him, with the team signing Za’Darius Smith, who has had double-digit sacks his last three full seasons. Cleveland gets a 4th place schedule which should be enough to push them into double-digit wins. I’m in on the Browns to win the division (+375). I also like Watson to go Over 4000 Passing Yards at +250 (he did it in 2018 and 2020) and Watson to go Over 24.5 touchdowns (-115). And while we are at it, how about Moore over 45.5 reception (-115).
Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 8.5 -170
It’s hard to believe that Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in 16 years as an NFL head coach – so why would we expect anything different this year? The Steelers elevated their game to win six of their last seven, including their last four, to keep Tomlin’s record clean. QB Kenny Pickett got more comfortable as the season progressed and proved capable of managing the game and not making bad mistakes. Pickett will not be asked to do a lot more this year but should continue to develop chemistry with George Pickens, Diantae Johnson, and tight end Pat Freiermuth. The rushing game will again feature Najee Harris, meaning it will be nothing special. The Steeler defense will again be the unit to watch for this team. T.J. Watt missed time and played hurt last year, and Pittsburgh still had a respectable 40 sacks. With Watt joining Cam Heyward and Alex Highsmith, the Steelers could have a top 5 pass rush. I also like Harris under 950.5 rushing yards (-115), as I expect Jaylen Warren to get a bigger share of the carries and maybe take over the lead role.
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