AFC North Battle: Bengals vs. Ravens Pick ATS

by | Oct 8, 2020 | nfl

Cincinnati Bengals (1-2-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. Baltimore Ravens (3-1, 2-2), 10/11/20

Time: 1 pm ET Sunday, Oct. 11

Where: M&T Bank Stadium

TV: CBS

Point spread: Ravens -13.5 (GTBets - Deposit $100 and get a FREE $100 Bet!)

Moneyline: Bengals +590/Ravens -865

Over/Under: 51

Heisman winners Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow face off for the first of what hopefully is many times over the next many seasons when the Ravens entertain the Bengals for an AFC North battle Sunday afternoon in Baltimore. Jackson and his Ravens are Super Bowl contenders, but Burrow and Joe Mixon give Cincinnati a puncher’s chance. How are we playing this game with our free against the spread pick?

NFL Betting Odds

Week 5’s NFL betting odds opened Baltimore as a 13.5-point favorite over Cincy, with an over/under of 52. Early betting action then dipped that total to 51.

Bengals vs. Ravens Set-Up

Cincinnati just picked up the first win of the Joe Burrow era, beating Jacksonville at home last Sunday 33-25. The Bengals trailed 13-10 at the half but scored the first 17 points out of the locker room to go up 27-13. Later, after allowing the Jaguars to pull within one score at 30-22, the Bengals immediately embarked upon a 66-yard drive that took the clock under two minutes and resulted in a field goal that restored a two-score lead. Cincy hung on from there for the win and the money as one-point favorites.

Cincinnati racked up 505 yards of total offense on the day, although the defense gave up 429 to the Jags. The Bengals also out-rushed Jacksonville 205-89, as RB Joe Mixon went off for 151, with touchdown bursts of 34 and 23 yards.

Cincinnati kicker Randy Bullock hit 4/4 on field goals Sunday, so since botching that kick that would have tied the game against the Chargers back in Week 1, he’s 12/12.

The Bengals opened their season with that tough 16-13 loss to the Chargers, just missing a push of the spread as home dogs at +2.5. They then fell at Cleveland 35-30 but covered back-door at +6. Cincinnati then played Philadelphia to a 23-23 tie and covered at +5.5. So perhaps this team has been underrated by the oddsmakers so far.
At 1-2-1 overall, the Bengals are shooting to reach .500 as soon as possible.

Meanwhile, Baltimore just bounced back from that loss to Kansas City two weeks ago to win at Washington last Sunday 31-17. The Ravens scored the first 14 points of the game, led 21-10 at the half, then scored the first 10 points of the second half to go up 31-10. Unfortunately for Baltimore’s financial backers, the Ravens made a dumb turnover late, leading to a meaningless Washington touchdown with two minutes left, to piss away the cover as favorites of 14.5 points.

On the day Baltimore out-gained Washington, but only by a margin of 350-343, and lost first downs 24-18. But the Ravens also out-rushed Washington 144-69, aided by a 50-yard TD jaunt from Jackson, and converted a fake punt on a 4th-and-9, leading to another touchdown.

Baltimore opened this season with a 38-6 drubbing of the Browns, who haven’t lost since. The Ravens then won at Houston 33-16, covering at -7.5. Baltimore then, as mentioned above, fell to the nemesis Chiefs 34-20.

At 3-1, the Ravens trail first-place Pittsburgh by a half-game in the AFC North.

Bengals-Ravens Recent History

Baltimore owns a three-game winning streak in this rivalry, but Cincinnati is 2-1 ATS over that span. Last year the Ravens beat the Bengals by scores of 23-17 and 49-13, splitting those two games ATS as favorites of 10.5 points both times.

NFL Betting Trends

  • Baltimore is 22-4 SU, 15-11 ATS, with Jackson starting at QB.
  • Baltimore is 2-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite over the last season-plus.
  • Double-digit favorites are 4-0 SU, 2-1-1 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Favorites are 42-20-1 SU but only 29-32-2 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Home teams are just 31-31-1 SU, 28-33-2 ATS in the NFL this season.

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Totals Report

  • Totals are split 2-2 in Bengals games this season, which average 50 totals points against an average over/under of 46.
  • Unders are 3-1 in Ravens games this season, which are averaging 49 points against an average O/U of 49.
  • Overs are 4-1 over the last five meetings between these teams, which have averaged 52 points against an average O/U of 44.
  • Overs are 36-26 in the NFL this season.

Free NFL Pick

Baltimore will win this game; the only thing that really matters is the margin of victory. From what we can tell, playing at home, even in empty stadiums, still means something to the guys who makes the spreads. However, as mentioned above, home teams are under .500 ATS this season, and we expect that trend to continue. Also, Sagarin’s NFL ratings at USAToday.com list the NFL home-field advantage at 1.96 points right now, when it’s usually around 3.0. Plus, Cincinnati is playing some decent ball. We’ll take the Bengals and the points here. Note: As you may have heard, 5Dimes has left the U.S. market. They no longer offer wagering to players from America. Did you know that there are still a couple of other good books that offer -105 odds? Get your reduced juice back TODAY by signing up at BetAnySports. Home of -105 reduced vig!