Atlanta Falcons vs. Kansas City Chiefs Pick ATS

by | Dec 21, 2020 | nfl

Atlanta Falcons (4-10 SU, 6-8 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (13-1 SU, 6-7-1 ATS)

NFL Football Week 16

Date/Time: Sunday December 27th, 2020. 1:00PM (EST)

Where: Arrowhead Stadium Kansas City, MO

TV:  FOX

Point Spread: ATL +11/KC -11 (Mybookie - Receive a 100% bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 when you use bonus code PREDICT100)

Over/Under Total: 53.5

Tell me if you have heard this story before? Last Sunday, the Atlanta Falcons held a commanding 24-7 lead over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers going into the final minutes of the 3rd quarter but suffered an epic collapse, which allowed the Bucs to go on a 24-3 run to close out the game to steal the victory. If that storyline sounds familiar, it should as the Falcons have become synonymous with blowing huge leads this season. The trend started under former Head Coach Dan Quinn, and apparently, the demons have not been exorcised under Interim Head Coach Raheem Morris’s watch. At 4-10 SU, the Falcons have long been eliminated from the postseason but are trying to find some positivity from so many disappointments this season. The Falcons will have that opportunity once again on Sunday when they go into Arrowhead Stadium to battle the defending champions in the Kansas City Chiefs.

At 13-1 SU, the defending champs remain the NFL’s best team. Last week, the Chiefs scored their 9th straight victory with an impressive 32-29 win over the New Orleans Saints in the Superdome. QB Patrick Mahomes did his thing by tossing three touchdowns, which has become the norm for the NFL’s biggest superstar. The Chiefs also got a big effort from the defense, which stood firm against the Saints’ versatile offense. Overall, it was just another all-around impressive effort from the Chiefs against one of the best teams from the NFC. This Sunday, the Chiefs will be double-digit favorites to win their 10th in a row, and while they have already secured their postseason berth; another win would clinch home-field advantage in the playoffs, and that is something that cannot be undermined!

More Picks: NFL Week 16 Picks Against the Spread >>>

Falcons Injury Updates for week 16

One of the most important items surrounding the Atlanta Falcons’ this season has been their health. Atlanta has been riddled with injuries, with the likes of Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, Hayden Hurst, and Todd Gurley being listed on the injury list frequently in recent weeks. The biggest concern going into week 16’s match-up with the Chiefs is the availability of Julio Jones. Jones missed last week’s contest with a hamstring injury and is hopeful of joining the line-up this week. In Jones’ absence in week 15, WR Calvin Ridley exploded for ten catches for 163 yards with a touchdown. Still, Atlanta will love to have both of their stud receivers on the field this week against the Chiefs, especially when you consider it looks like the team has decided to shut down RB Todd Gurley’s output. Keep an eye on Julio’s status as the week progresses. If he is able to play as I expect, I believe we have legitimate reasons to consider the 11 point offering!

Chiefs unfavorable betting trends

At 13-1, it’s hard to ignore how impressive the Chiefs have been in their follow-up season from last year’s Super Bowl win. While the victories and stats have exceeded expectations, the betting numbers remain the least impressive. Despite the nine-game winning streak, the Chiefs are 0-5-1 ATS in the last six contests, which means they have not covered a spread since the Week 8 contest against the Jets. When you look at Atlanta’s resume at face-value, we see a 4-10 record with a three-game losing streak. However, the Falcons have been competitive in nearly every contest. The Falcons have lost by just 11 points combined over the last three games, and out of their ten losses on the season; only twice have those losses been by more than a touchdown.

Stylistically, this is not the most favorable match-up for the Chiefs defense. Kansas City’s defensive line has failed to produce pressure on opposing quarterbacks. If you give Matt Ryan a clean pocket, the Falcons have enough weapons to challenge the Chiefs defense and keep the ball moving. Perhaps the bigger concern for Atlanta is the fact this game is on the road, and the Falcons defense has an extremely scary match-up against Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and the rest of the dynamic offense. The Falcons defense was awful earlier this year, but they have actually looked much better in recent weeks, with Morris calling the shots. If we can avoid a Falcons defensive letdown, I really like the value in the double-digit points.

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Falcons +11. Did you know that you could be only having to risk -105 odds instead of the more expensive -110 option that your book is serving you? Imagine how much you’d save over time if you were saving $5 for every $100 you’re trying to win. It blows away any bonus you can get! Find this great offer at BAS Sportsbook