Atlanta Falcons (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) vs. Tennessee Titans (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS)
NFL Week 7
Date/Time: Sunday, October 25th, 1:00pm
Where: Nissan Stadium Nashville, TN
TV: Fox
by Bob, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: ATL -4 / TEN +4
Over/Under Total: 48
This Sunday in Nissan Stadium, the 5-1 Atlanta Falcons will come into Nashville to take on the Tennessee Titans. Atlanta is in 2nd place in the NFC South, just a half game behind the Panthers, while the Titans sit in 3rd place in the AFC South. These two teams met in the preseason with Atlanta winning by a 31-24 score but we all know that the preseason means nothing when it comes to the regular season. This will be just the third regular season game between these two teams since 2007. In the last two games it is an even split with Tennessee winning in 2007 and Atlanta winning in 2011.
The Atlanta Falcons come into this game as a four point road favorite over the Titans. Even though it is very early in the week, 86% of the action is already on Atlanta. If this trend keeps up, I can see this line going as high as 5.5 or 6 points. The over under is 48 and the public is just about even on that with 54% of the money riding on the potential of this game going under the 48. Atlanta is 4-2 against the spread, and actually, both of those losses ATS were games in which they were favored. Atlanta has yet to lose and not cover a game where they were the underdog. Is this a sign of playing down to the competition, or is it just the fact that the Falcons opponents in those games simply came to play?
In week one, the Tennessee Titans were the story of the week. They went into Tampa and lit up the Bucs 42-14. Rookie QB, Marcus Mariota, passed for four touchdowns in that game and it appeared at the time that the Titans got the better of the top two quarterbacks in the draft. Well, since that great day in week one, the Titans have yet to find a way to win a game since. They have dropped four straight and that includes losses to the Browns and the Dolphins, The Titans are not a bad statistical team, they just cannot seem to get it all together on the same day and get wins. Tennessee is ranked in the upper half of the league in rushing yards and points scored. Their defense has been a slight disappointment, allowing nearly 26 points a game and ranking 20th in the league. Tennessee does have a shot however not only to cover the four, but to beat the Falconsforce turnovers. Atlanta could be 6-0 but they fumbled five times I believe in New Orleans causing them to leave points on the field. If Tennessee can force the Falcons into the same mistakes and take advantage of them, game on.
The Falcons are coming off their first loss of the season. This past Thursday night, they went into New Orleans and lost to the reeling Saints 31-21. What an ugly game it was. The Falcons shot themselves in the foot more than I have seen any team do in recent history. Matt Ryan looked fairly solid and the offense moved the ball. It was just the fumbles that put them in a bad place and never allowed them to make the run to come back. On the season however, the Falcons are still one of the more impressive teams in the league. They rank 4th in the NFL in rushing, 8th in passing, and 3rd in scoring. The real shocker this season though is the fact that the defense is not awful. Ranking 17th in the league in points allowed is a testament to first year head coach, Dan Quinns defensive scheme. Speaking of Dan Quinn, how is that Seattle defense looking this year? Anyway, the Falcons need to get back on the winning track in order to keep up with the 5-0 Carolina Panthers. The key is simple, STOP FUMBLING! If the Falcons come into Nashville and play their style, they should leave with a pretty easy win.
I absolutely hate following the public, especially when over 80% of them are on the same side. However, here I go I firmly believe the Falcons will right the ship this week and go into Tennessee and get a 10 point win. I like Atlanta to win this game 27-17 over the Titans and not only get their 6th win of the season, but get their 5th cover.
Bobs Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Pick the Atlanta Falcons -4!
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