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Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Redskins Pick

by | Nov 1, 2018 | nfl

Atlanta Falcons (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) vs. Washington Redskins (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS)
NFL Football Week 9
Date and Time: Sunday, November 4th, 1:00pm EST
Where:FedEx Field - Landover, MD
TV: FOX
By: Bob Clark, NFL Football Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread: ATL +2/WAS -2 (Intertops)
Over/Under Total: 47.5
POWER RATINGS – WEEK 9: WASHINGTON REDSKINS -1

TAKEAWAYS FROM WEEK 8:

In week eight, the Atlanta Falcons had their much needed BYE week while the Washington Redskins took on the the New York Giants. The Falcons went into their off week having won their last two games and the Redskins after defeating the Giants have now won three straight and four of their last five while sitting on top of the NFC East division. Against New York, the Redskins were very run heavy with Adrian Peterson…yes, THAT Adrian Peterson… racking up 149 yards on the ground and a touchdown. As for the passing game, it was not much needed. Alex Smith threw for 178 yards and a score but that is really all he was asked to do in the 20-13 win over the AWFUL Giants. One thing I will say is that I feel the Redskins record is much better than they really are. This weekend will not be an easy match up. Washington is ranked near the bottom of the NFL in points scored while their defense is one of the best in points allowed. With that said, if you allow Eli Manning to pass for over 300 yards, imagine what a team with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones can do to you. I am not predicting a Falcons win…YET, but this Washington team has a lot of work to do come Sunday.

HOW THE PUBLIC IS BETTING ATLANTA AND WASHINGTON:

The Redskins are favored by two points over the Falcons and the total points are set at 47.5 combined. As of Tuesday morning, the betting public was very high on the Atlanta Falcons with over 60% of the documented action on them plus the points. if this trend keeps up, I can see this game becoming a straight pick’em by kickoff on Sunday. So, if you are already liking the Falcons, I say bet them now before you lose the two point buffer because I can guarantee, if anything, the line will stay the same if not move with less points being given to Atlanta. Against the spread this year, New York is 5-2 while the Falcons are 2-5.

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THE HISTORICALS:

These two teams do not face off regularly. Since 2006 these teams have met five times with the Falcons winning all five. The last time they met, back in 2015, the Falcons won on a pick six in overtime. This was also Dan Quinn’s first year as head coach for Atlanta. Since that time, these two rosters have changed A LOT and history should have nothing to do with the result this coming weekend.

INURY CONCERNS:

We all know the Falcons are banged up, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen are both out for the season while Deon Jones SHOULD be returning in a couple of weeks after missing some extended time as well. On offense, Devonte Freeman, Andy Levitre, and Brandon Fusco are on IR while Calvin Ridley is nursing some soreness but is said to be 100% come Sunday. Also among the injured Birds are Matt Bryant and Deadrin Senat who are both listed as questionable heading into this weekend. For the Washington Redskins, Quinton Dunbar, Ryan Anderson, and Chris Thompson are all questionable for this Sunday’s game against the Falcons. Both Thompson and Anderson were injured against the Giants while Dunbar has missed the last two games with nerve issues in his shin. Although the Falcons have less injuries than the Skins, I think Atlanta is at a disadvantage more so due to the calibre of players lost. Washington has more injuries from a numerical standpoint but this Sunday in my opnion favors the Redskins.

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WHEN ATLANTA HAS THE BALL:

We know what the Falcons are going to do. Everyone knows. Matt Ryan is going to attempt to play catch all day with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. Ryan is quietly putting together an MVP type season and if Atlanta can continue to win in spite of the injuries, I can see him getting some legit consideration down the stretch. Atlanta ranks 3rd in the NFL in passing yards and are near the top 10 in scoring. However, it is the run game that needs improving if this team has any hopes of making a third straight post season appearance. Atlanta is ranked 30th in rushing and the absence of Freeman is not the issue…it is the Offensive Line. Atlanta has another proven back in Tevin Coleman and on many rosters around the NFL, Coleman is a potential starter. I think this weekend, just like many others, the Falcons WILL ATTEMPT to get a run game going to make things easier on Ryan and the rest of the offense, I just do not have faith that it will work. The Redskins play decent defense but in the end, I can still see Atlanta putting up decent numbers. The only question is will it be enough to make up for their lack of defense.

WHEN WASHINGTON HAS THE BALL:

It is no secret that the Atlanta Falcons have a bad defense. Okay, I should not say BAD but banged up. They are missing three of their best four defensive starters and there are not many teams in the NFL that could recover from that. Washington needs to take advantage of this come Sunday. The Falcons are allowing over 30 points a game on defense and only two teams are worse. The Falcons run defense is not all that bad. Yes, Washington will need to establish some sort of run game but the key will be to let Alex Smith air it out. The Falcons are ranked in the bottom five of the NFL in pass yards allowed and I can see Washington trying to expose this early and often. Washington all season has been a run first team, but I truly believe some Sunday, that will not work. I know that and I damn sure know that the Redskins staff knows it. I look for Alex Smith to finish Sunday with around 25-30 pass attempts. If that is not the case, I really do not see the Redskins keeping up with the Falcons on the scoreboard.

BETTING TRENDS:

The line on this game really scares me, the trends are all over the place from a head to head standpoint and where I do think the Falcons will win, I just cannot find it in me to wager my hard earned cash on them. However, there is some daylight, I REALLY like the over/under number in this one! The 47.5 seems low but it isn’t. Check these numbers:

  • In the Falcons last 7 wins, the under is 6-1 the very next game.
  • The Redskins have gone under in their last 5 games against a team with a losing record.

This game is tough but I really like the under. Anytime the Falcons take the field, the public loves the over due to their explosive offense and bad defense, but this game just has a different feel to it. I think this is a more gritty and low scoring afair with the winning team taking it 23-20.

WEATHER REPORT:

Washington on Sunday has a 70% chance of rain with temperatures with a low of 40 degrees and a high of 58. This is another reason I like this game to stay a little lower scoring than most think..

Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: TAKE UNDER THE POSTED TOTAL OF 47.5 POINTS BETWEEN THE FALCONS AND REDSKINS

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