Ballsy Pick: Giants vs. Rams Week 4 Prediction
New York Giants (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Rams (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)
When: Sunday, October 4th, 2020– 4:05 PM ET
Where: SoFi Stadium – Los Angeles, CA
Point Spread: NYG +13 / LAR -13 (BetOnline - SWEET Live Betting Platform!)
Takeaways From Week Three
The G-Men come in off a 36-9 beat-down sustained at the hands of the visiting San Francisco 49ers last Sunday. As a three-point home pup, the Giants were nowhere near close to covering, let alone offering any resistance against the Niners.
The Rams step into this contest off a disappointing loss on the road in Buffalo, last Sunday. As a 1.5-point underdog, Los Angeles took the lead into the final stage of the fourth quarter before Buffalo would score a touchdown in the final minute to defeat LA 35-32. The result pushed backers away from the window. Los Angeles remains profitable overall as of late, going 6-3-1 ATS in their previous ten contests.
How the Public is Betting the New York-Los Angeles Game
In the early going, we have seen the public pile in on the Rams as they have moved from a nine-point choice to their current asking price of laying 13 to Big Blue. This is a huge four-point swing. Nevertheless, the Rams have 76% of the consensus fancying them in this spot.
New York and Los Angeles last met in November of 2017, where the Giants would play host to the Rams, and LA would summarily whack New York. As a 5.5-point road favorite, the Rams would crush the G-Men 51-17.
The Giants have been a cash-cow in this series as they have fostered covers in eight in of the preceding nine contests between both parties. Overall, Big Blue may seem to bode value as all the analytics match-up with New York, and the Road Team is 4-1 ATS in the last five matches, the Giants themselves are 5-0 ATS in the previous five meetings in Los Angeles. However, the main reason why I like New York in this spot is the value presented with taking them with the enhanced points against the spread.
The most significant talking point undoubtedly concerning either side in this affair is the Giants losing their star running back, Saquon Barkley, to the Injury Reserve with a knee injury. This event influenced the Week Three betting market when the G-Men were up against the Niners, and given the result of that match, it is likely still influencing this market as well. Much of the sentiment surrounding the Giants is that they have no chance to even be the least formidable with Barkley absent. Nevertheless, it has been the play of Daniel Jones that has catalyzed this offense for the most part in the early stretches of the season.
Why We Like New York to Cover
Playing value can be derived from a lot of different approaches. In this scenario, we are taking back an extra four points by backing the Giants in itself bodes equity. In the NFL, we have seen time and time again, points can be of the essence, and that is the lure of playing teasers. In this spot, we can essentially get extra points without having to pay for them as result of the market appeal in the Giants being low and the Rams remaining a team with a lot of appeal regardless of last week’s road loss. The nature of LA’s loss last week is, in fact, something that the market will forgive. The Giants, on the other hand, will be held in contempt. The fact of the matter remains that should LA rinse New York as anticipated, there is plenty of breathing room here for the Giants to generate a couple of junk-time scores and come in under the number.
Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: New York +13
This line has potential to be a massive overlay. Betting the Rams at this point would also be considered playing them at a bad number since the line has moved considerably. Do I think the Giants will stage an upset? Probably not. However, the Giants played Pittsburgh closer than the box score indicated in Week One, and they were in a position to steal a win on the road in Chicago in Week Two. In light of last week’s rout against San Francisco, the Giants are still a better team than their record shows. This makes Big Blue especially dangerous, off the radar. The Giants will approach this game with nothing to lose and everything to kind. Anecdotally, it is those kinds of underdogs that have the full capability to be live. Take the points. Bet your Week 4 NFL picks FREE by snagging a killer 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook!
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