Bears vs. Falcons Point Spread Pick 9/27/20

by | Sep 22, 2020 | nfl

Chicago Bears (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS)

NFL Football Week 3

Date/Time: Sunday September 27th, 2020. 1:00PM (EST)

Where:Mercedes-Benz Stadium Atlanta, G.A.

TV:FOX

Point Spread:CHI +3/ATL -3 (BetOnline - Excellent Live Betting Platform!)

Over/Under Total: 47

If the blown 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI was not bad enough, the Atlanta Falcons had an equally painful choke job in Week 2, leading to a 40-39 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. The Falcons dominated the game, capitalizing on early turnovers to jump out to a 26-7 lead. Even after withstanding a few rallies by the Cowboys offense, the Falcons held a 15 point lead with less than 5 minutes to go. The Cowboys then mounted two touchdown drives and recovered an improbable onside kick that led to a game-winning field goal as time expired. Simply put, it was another disastrous coaching performance from a Falcons team that had numerous opportunities to put the game away.

Now staring at an 0-2 SU record, the Falcons return home this Sunday when they host the Chicago Bears at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in a desperate must-win scenario. Since 1990, only 11% of NFL teams make the playoffs following an 0-2 start. If Atlanta fails to get the job done again this Sunday, that number falls to an extremely rare 2% chance towards making the playoffs. Unfortunately for Atlanta, the Bears have jumped out to a surprising 2-0 start following victories over Lions and Giants. Chicago’s defense has been impressive in both games but will the Bears offense have the firepower to contend with Matt Ryan and the Falcons?

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Betting against the Bears

There are a couple of reasons that the winless Falcons are 3 point favorites over the undefeated Bears. For starters, both of Chicago’s wins were against relatively unimpressive foes in the Lions and the injury-plagued Giants. The bigger reason that I have is that the Bears offense remains untrustworthy. Even in last week’s win over the Giants, QB Mitchell Trubisky was well Mitchell Trubisky. The Bears quarterback was wildly inaccurate with two touchdowns and two picks. WR Allen Robinson was targeted nine times yet produced just three catches for 33 yards. Running back, David Montgomery was pretty solid running the football, but honestly, the Bears’ success was due to the play of their defense.

My concern for the Bears is that they will not have enough firepower to contend this week. The Falcons defense can be flat-out embarrassing at times. Even with that said, Atlanta’s offense is loaded, and they are performing at a high level. QB Matt Ryan threw for 450 yards in the opener against Seattle and tossed another four touchdowns against the Cowboys last week. WR Calvin Ridley is emerging as one of the league’s top wideouts alongside Julio Jones. Combine the emergence of WR Russell Gage, with acquired TE Hayden Hurst, and now RB Todd Gurley, and the Falcons have an all-star cast of weapons. The offense has been great, and the defense has been terrible. However, I think the Falcons defense will look much better this Sunday against a relatively mediocre offense that lacks the weapons they have faced in the first two weeks. If they can get a few turnovers from Trubisky and the Bears offense, it only makes the argument strong to bet against the Bears.

Chicago vs. Atlanta Betting Trends

The Bears hold the long-term advantage over the Falcons over 9 of the last 11 meetings between both teams. However, if you look at recent games, the Bears are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall and just 1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road. Meanwhile, Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in their last six games, going back to 2019. The Falcons have also hit the “over” in five of their last six games. However, in past meetings between Chicago and Atlanta, the “under” has cashed in nine of the last ten meetings.

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