Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, September 13, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Bank of America Stadium
Chicago is a 2.5-point road favorite over Carolina with a total of 47.5. My play is the Bears to cover.
Two division champions from last year meet in Week 1. Both are coming off breakthrough seasons and both are trying to prove those runs weren’t flukes. But the gap between these programs is actually bigger than the current spread suggests.
Ben Johnson is entering his second year in Chicago after winning NFC Coach of the Year buzz and taking the Bears to the divisional round. His team went 11-6 last year and beat the Packers 31-27 in the Wild Card round. Caleb Williams is now in Year 3 of his career with a coach who knows how to develop young quarterbacks (Johnson was Jared Goff’s offensive coordinator in Detroit for three seasons before taking the Chicago job). Williams has an entire offseason of continuity in the same offense — a rare thing for a young QB in today’s coaching carousel.
Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland, and Cole Kmet form a legitimately deep receiving group. Kevin Byard anchors the secondary as a First-Team All-Pro. Joe Thuney is one of the best interior offensive linemen in football. Darnell Wright made second-team All-Pro at tackle. This is a real roster with playoff experience and playoff-caliber talent.
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The Panthers are a good story too. Dave Canales took Carolina to their first NFC South title since 2015. Bryce Young had his first 3,000-yard season. But the specific matchup problem for Carolina is at the line of scrimmage.
Reports out of Charlotte indicate roughly 40% of the Panthers’ offensive line will be unavailable for Week 1. That’s a massive issue against a Bears defense with real edge rushers and a scheme designed to attack young quarterbacks. Bryce Young was still developing his ability to handle pressure last year. Playing against Chicago’s front with a depleted offensive line in front of him — that’s a recipe for stalled drives and turnovers.
Carolina’s rebuilt linebacker corps is worth noting. Jaelan Phillips came over from Miami. Devin Lloyd came from Jacksonville. Bobby Okeke gives the defense a veteran presence. That defense will be improved, especially at stopping the run. But it’s not going to shut down Ben Johnson’s offense in Week 1.
The historical concern with Ben Johnson is that his Bears started 0-2 last season before winning nine of ten. Slow starts happen. But that’s not the profile of a team that struggled to prepare — that was a young roster figuring out how to win. This year the roster knows how to win. They’ve been there.
The 2.5-point spread is generous to Carolina. Chicago’s front seven will get to Bryce Young. Chicago’s offense will move the ball against a Panthers defense that’s still integrating new pieces. Realistic scores like Bears 27, Panthers 20 (or 24-17) cover the number comfortably.
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