Blowout Alert: Bills vs. Jets Pick ATS

by | Oct 22, 2020 | nfl

Buffalo Bills (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. New York Jets (0-6, 0-6), 10/25/20

Time: 1 pm ET Sunday, Oct. 25

Where: Met Life Stadium


Point spread: Bills -13.5/Jets +13.5 (Get the best line)

Moneyline: Bills -715/Jets +500

Over/Under: 45

Buffalo lugs a two-game losing skid into its AFC East rivalry bout with the Jets Sunday afternoon in New Jersey but fortunately, a date with the Jets might be exactly what the Bills need. Buffalo is lined as a big divisional road favorite for this game, and even two touchdowns might be relatively low. Who do we like here for our against the spread pick?

NFL Betting Odds

Week 7’s NFL betting odds opened Buffalo as an -11-point road favorite over the Jets, with an over/under of around 47. Early betting action then bumped the Bills to -13.5 and trimmed that total to 45.

Bills vs. Jets Set-Up

Buffalo started 4-0 this season, with wins over these pathetic Jets, the Dolphins (who are 3-3 now), the Rams (4-2), and the Raiders (3-2), but it’s now lost two in a row, after falling at home to defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Monday night 26-17. The Bills, in weather made for running the football, led the Chiefs 10-7 well into the second quarter but trailed 13-10 at the half. They then gave up the first 10 points out of the locker room and could not recover. They also came up short ATS as home dogs of 5.5 points.

On the night, Buffalo got out-gained by Kansas City 466-206, out-rushed 245-84, lost time of possession by a 38:22 split, and allowed KC to convert 9/14 on third downs. Going by those numbers, the Bills probably should have lost by 20 points.

Buffalo has actually been out-gained in three of its last four games and out-rushed in all four. The Bills are also averaging just 68 yards rushing per game by guys other than quarterback Josh Allen.


Two weeks ago, Buffalo lost at Tennessee 42-16.

Still, at 4-2, the Bills lead the AFC East by one game over second-place Miami.

New York, meanwhile, wins the bet for the last team in the League to remain winless this season, after getting blanked the previous week by the Dolphins 24-0. The Jets, again playing Joe Flacco at QB in place of the injured Sam Darnold, produced six punts and an interception on their first seven possessions to trail 21-0 at the half. New York then produced four punts and a missed field goal on its first five possessions of the second half, never even threatening to make it a game, on its way toward defeat.

The Jets also whiffed ATS as 10-point dogs.

Statistically speaking, last week’s game rated as strange. The Jets got out-gained by the Dolphins, but only by a margin of 302-263. New York also out-rushed Miami 115-110, won the time of possession by a 32:28 split, and won the turnover battle 2-1. But it was all situational and didn’t mean a thing.

Two weeks ago, the Jets lost to Arizona 30-10, missing ATS at +7; three weeks ago, they lost to Denver 37-28. So not only is New York losing games, it’s struggling to stay competitive and losing money; the Jets have yet to cover a spread this season.

Bills-Jets Recent History

These rivals have alternated wins and losses over their last eight meetings. They split their season series each of the previous three seasons, and Buffalo took the first meeting this season, back in Week 1, 27-17. The Bills led that game 21-0 in the second quarter and cruise-controlled it from there for the win and the cover as 6.5-point favorites.

Also, that game played over a total of 39.5, which is still the lowest in the league this season, when the Jets scored a meaningless touchdown with just under a minute to go.

NFL Betting Trends

  • Buffalo is 19-14 SU, 18-13-2 ATS, with Josh Allen as the starter at quarterback.
  • New York is 7-15 both SU and ATS under Coach Gase.
  • Home dogs are 9-21 SU, 14-14-1 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Double-digit favorites are 6-1 SU, 3-3-1 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Double-digit home dogs are 0-2 SU but 1-0-1 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 4-1-1 in Bills games this season, which are averaging 54 total points against an average over/under of 48.
  • Totals are split 3-3 in Jets games this season, which are averaging 43 points against an average O/U of 43.
  • Unders played 9-5 in the NFL last week, but overs are still 48-42 on the season.

Free NFL Pick

The Bills aren’t exactly lighting things up at the moment, but the Jets are the worst team in the League. New York just let RB Le’ Veon Bell walk away, and a bunch of guys would probably like to join him. And the coach is perhaps on the way out, too, although not by choice. Buffalo dominated the Jets in Week 1, and there’s little reason to believe this game won’t play out along similar lines. We’ll give the points with the Bills here. MORE Free Cash! Deposit $100 to $1000 and they’ll credit you with a 100% bonus at Betnow Sportsbook!