Browns vs. Texans Point Spread Pick

Cleveland Browns (9-5 SU, 9-5 ATS) at Houston Texans (8-6, 7-7), 12/24/23
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Dec. 24
Where: NRG Stadium
TV: CBS

Betting Odds

Point spread: Cle -2.5/Hous +2.5
Money line: Cle -140/Hous +120
Total: 40.5

AFC playoff contenders collide when Joe Flacco and the Browns take their show on the road for a tussle with the Texans on Sunday afternoon in Houston.

Cleveland apparently found the backup quarterback it needed to make a playoff run, lucking into some great play from the 38-year-old Flacco. Meanwhile the Texans are probably operating again this week with a backup QB of their own.

NFL Betting Lines

The Week 16 NFL betting market opened Cleveland as a two-point road favorite for Sunday, with an over/under of right around 42. Early betting action slid that spread to 2.5 and dipped that total to 40.5.

Browns-Texans Betting Preview

Cleveland owns back-to-back victories after coming from behind to beat Chicago last Sunday 20-17. The Browns trailed that game 17-7 through three quarters, rallied with Flacco to take the lead with less than a minute to go, then survived a Chicago Hail Mary at the buzzer.

Cleveland basically got out-played for the first three quarters by the Bears but eventually out-gained Chicago 377-236. So the Browns have now out-gained six of their last eight opponents.

Two weeks ago, Cleveland won at Jacksonville 31-27.

At 9-5 overall, the Browns would be the No. 5 seed in the AFC if the playoffs started today.

Meanwhile, Houston just bounced back from that bad loss at the Jets two weeks ago to win at Tennessee last Sunday 19-16 in overtime. The Texans, with journeyman Case Keenum at QB in place of the injured CJ Stroud, spotted the Titans the first 13 points of the game. But Houston battled back to tie it at 16-16 with three minutes left in regulation and won it with a defensive stop and a long field goal as time ran out in OT.

The Texans out-gained the Titans 340-204 and out-rushed Tennessee 148-66.

Two weeks ago, Houston lost in the rain at the Jets 30-6. But just before that, the Texans defeated Denver 22-17.

At 8-6 overall, Houston is tied for the lead in the AFC South with Jacksonville and Indianapolis. However, because of tie-breakers, the Texans are actually in third place. Houston also trails the Colts by a tie-breaker in the battle for the No. 7 spot in the AFC playoff standings.

On the injury front Cleveland, already without QB Watson and RB Chubb, lists two starters along the O-line and two defensive starters as questionable for Sunday. On the other sideline, the Texans list Stroud and three defensive starters as Q. We’re assuming Keenum will go for Houston on Sunday.

Browns-Texans Recent History

These teams have met each of the last three seasons, all Cleveland victories. But neither Flacco or Keenum had anything to do with any of those games. Last year, the Browns scored three defensive/special teams touchdowns to win at Houston 27-14.

Common Opponents

These teams have played eight common opponents this season, members of the AFC North and South and a couple of others. Cleveland played those foes to 7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS and +66 yards per game, Houston to 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS and +76 YPG.

NFL Betting Trends

Cleveland is 2-1 SU and ATS with Flacco as the starter at QB, averaging 23 PPG.

Keenum is 30-35 SU as an NFL starter.

NFL home dogs are 35-45 ATS this season.

Totals Report

• The Overs are 7-6-1 in Browns games this season, which are averaging 43 total points.
• The Unders are 9-5 in Texans games, which are also averaging 43 points.
• The Unders are 125-99 in the NFL this season.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Flaccos has been getting a lot of love over the last week or two, but we actually give Houston the edge in the QB comparison with Keenum. From there, Cleveland owns the better defense, but it’s close. Also, we believe the Texans will out-rush the Browns, and teams that win the ground battles in the NFL cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. We’re betting Houston Sunday on the money line.