Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins Analysis & Predictions
Buffalo Bills (1-0, 1-0) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-1, 0-1), 9/20/19
Time: 1 pm ET Sunday, Sept. 20
Where: Hard Rock Stadium
Point spread: Bills -5
Moneyline: Bills -175/Dolphins +140 (Find the best sportsbook bonus)
The Bills got off to a good start last week in their quest for a second straight playoff berth. On the other hand, for the Dolphins, it was a bit of the same old, same old. Can Buffalo get to 2-0 this week in Miami? Or can the Dolphins pull an upset? And how are we playing this game with our free NFL pick?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 2’s NFL betting odds opened Buffalo as a three-point road favorite for this game, with an over/under of 43. Early betting action then bumped the Bills to -5 and dipped the total to 42.
Bills vs. Dolphins Set-Up
Buffalo opened its 2020 season with a 27-17 victory at home over the Jets last week. The Bills fumbled the ball away on their first possession of the season, then drove their next three possessions 55, 82, and 68 yards to touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Buffalo defense stuffed New York into four 3-and-outs and an interception the first five times it took the field. The Bills let the Jets get within 21-10 midway through the third quarter but tacked on a couple of field goals and hung on from there for the win and the cover as 6.5-point favorites.
On the day Buffalo outgained New York 404-254, and 69 of the yards the Bills defense gave up came on one play. Buffalo also made 31 first downs, held the Jets to 15, and dominated time of possession by a 41:19 split.
The Bills actually should have won that game by at least 20 points, considering they turned the ball over twice inside New York territory, twice settled for very short field goals, and missed two more.
Buffalo ran the ball 32 times last week, 14 times by QB Josh Allen, and threw it 46 times. And newcomer Stefon Diggs made a mark, catching eight balls for 86 yards.
Miami, meanwhile, opened its season with a 21-11 loss at New England. The Dolphins fell down 7-0 early in the second quarter, pulled to within 7-3 at the half, fell down 14-3 in the third quarter, pulled to within 14-11 early in the fourth but could get no closer and came up short ATS as dogs of 7.5 points.
Miami had a chance at a back-door cover, but QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw an interception in the Patriots end zone with a minute and a half to go.
On the day, the Dolphins got out-gained by New England 357-269, out-rushed 217-87, and lost time of possession by a 35:25 split.
Fitzpatrick threw three INT’s last week, which has us wondering how long it might be before Miami gives top draft choice Tua Tagovailoa a chance at QB.
On the injury front, Buffalo is listing a couple starting linebackers as questionable for this week, while Miami’s best WR, DeVante Parker, is doubtful.
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Buffalo is 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS over the last six meetings with the Dolphins. Last year the Bills swept the season series from Miami, winning 31-21 at home in Week 7, then 37-20 in Florida in Week 11. Buffalo actually trailed that first meeting 14-9 through three quarters, then outscored the Dolphins 22-7 in the fourth quarter for the win. But the Bills couldn’t cover that day as 17-point favorites. Buffalo then grabbed an early 16-0 lead in the second meeting and basically cruised from there for the victory and the money at -7.
NFL Betting Trends
- The Bills played 6-2 SU, 6-0-2 ATS on the road last season.
- The Bills played 2-0 both SU and ATS last year as road favorites.
- The Dolphins played 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS at home last season, every game as a home dog.
- NFL home dogs played 3-4 SU, 4-2-1 ATS last week.
- Last week’s Bills game played over a total of 39 when Buffalo gave up a meaningless Jets touchdown with 54 seconds to go. Last season unders played 12-4 in Bills games.
- Last week’s Dolphins game played under a total of 42. Last season overs played 9-7 in Miami games.
- Overs played 9-7 in the NFL last week.
- Overs, somewhat surprisingly, are 8-2 over the last ten meetings in the series between these two teams.
Free NFL Pick
Buffalo’s got the better quarterback and the better defense, and playing on the road means the spread is a bit more amenable. Also, the Bills seem to have Miami’s number over recent seasons. We’re giving the points here with Buffalo. Bet your Week 2 NFL picks for FREE by taking advantage of a huge 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie!
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