Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction 9/19/21

by | Sep 14, 2021 | nfl

Buffalo Bills (0-1 SU, 0-1ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)

Date/Time: Sunday, September 19, 1:00 PM EST

Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fl

TV: CBS

Point Spread: Buf –3.5/Mia +3.5 (Bookmaker - One of the oldest and most trusted bookies on the web!)

Over/Under Total: 48

The Buffalo Bills travel to South Florida this week to take on the first place Dolphins in an NFC east battle. Betanysports.eu is making the Bills a 3.5 point favorite and has set the over/under total at 48. The play is to take the Dolphins with points. Here is the handicap.

The Bill Offense Will Struggle Again

Buffalo was the surprise story in 2020, with Josh Allen elevating his game to the top tier of the QB ladder leading Buffalo to the AFC Championship game. The 2021 season started with a disappointing performance against a good Steeler defense, with Buffalo scoring only 16 points while managing just 4.7 yards per play. The Bills offense is the poster child for the passing era we now live in – they show no interest in making defenses respect the run. Buffalo found out in week 1 that NFL Defenses will be ready for their attack in 2021. Buffalo had some success moving the ball against Pittsburgh but couldn’t cash in when they got to the red zone. They only scored touch downs on 1 of their 4 trips to the red zone, something we can expect to see again this week. Allen is the only running back on Buffalo that is a red zone threat and the Dolphins will key on shutting down his running. Allen completed only 58% of his passes and though it’s only a 1 game sample size, it represents a big regression from his 70% completion rate last year. Buffalo’s offense never looked in sync on Sunday and managed only 2 field goals in the second half. I’m not sure why we should expect a big improvement from the Bills in Miami.

The Dolphin defense looks a lot like the Steeler defense. Though they didn’t record a week 1 sack against New England’s quick passing attack, they will apply ample pressure against Allen, and will also stiffen up when they need to. Miami allowed the Patriots only 1 touchdown in 4 trips to the red zone, and last year the Fins defense was 10th in the league in the red zone and best in the league on 3rd down. Miami is also very opportunistic on defense, leading the league in takeaways last year. This stat generally regresses, but they had 2 against in week 1, including forcing a fumble late in the game to stop the Pats from taking the lead. The Dolphin secondary can match up with the Bill receiving weapons. All signs point to Buffalo having another challenging offensive game this week. With their defense, they need to get to 27 points to have a good chance to win, which I don’t see happening.

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Tua Is Coming Along

Tua Tagovailoa was maligned as a rookie, and there are still rumors that Miami’s brass are looking at other long term QB options. Tua answered the bell in week 1. It wasn’t the greatest performance or prettiest of wins, but Miami went into Bill Belichick’s neighborhood as an underdog and came out with a win. Tagovailoa completed 59% of his throws, averaged 7.5 yards per attempt, threw for a TD and also ran for a TD. Miami has a very capable receiving corps, with DeVante Parker and rookie Jaylen Waddle leading the way in week 1. Will Fuller will return in week 2 to give Tua a solid trio of wideouts, along with capable backfield and tight end options. Miami’s coaches can mirror the offensive attack after the Steeler attack last week, as both teams have the same type of skill players. Buffalo doesn’t get near the pass rush as New England, so Tua should have a little more time to get comfortable and find his targets this week. The stats don’t show that Miami had a lot of success running the ball against the Pats, but they were able to get first downs over the last 3 minutes of the game to ice away a W. Against a weaker Bill run defense, they should be able to have more success this week and keep 3rd down distances reasonable.

Buffalo’s defense looked good against Pittsburgh in week 1 after a dismal 2020. They held the Steeler offense scoreless in the first half, but allowed Big Ben and Company 16 second half points. They struggled to cover the Pittsburgh trio of wide receivers, and will have the same issue with Miami’s trio this week. They weren’t challenged on the ground in week 1 because of the Steeler offensive line, but they allowed 4.6 yards per carry in 2020. The Dolphins will have more success on the ground this week and employee a balanced approach this week. Miami will try and should have success sustaining long drives that puts point on the board and keeps the Bills offense on the sidelines.

Home Field, Revenge and the Line

There are a few places that are tough to play, especially early in the year and Miami is one of those places. The weather on south beach will be 90 degrees with what will feel like 100% humidity. The Bills, who have been training in upstate New York, will find out how good of shape they are in during the second half of this one. If the Buffalo defense can’t get off the field on 3rd downs early in the game, look for them to wither in the Florida heat. As stated above, Buffalo got outplayed at home last week in the second half and the same thing can happen this week. Miami also has a little revenge factor in this one as Buffalo swept the 2020 series between these two, including ending all of Miami’s playoff hopes in week 17 in Miami. Tua had the worst game of his young career in that one, and will look to make up for that performance.
This line has a lot of value in the home team. The line implies that if this game was in Buffalo the Bills would be 8 or 9 point favorites, but the Dolphins were only 3 point underdogs in Foxboro against New England and Buffalo was only 6 point favorites against Pittsburgh – which was obviously too much. This game should be closer to a pick-em in Miami.

The play in this game is to take the Dolphins and the points. We are getting 3.5 points of value on a team with a decisive home field advantage.Let’s play the Fins +3.5. Bet ALL your Week 2 NFL picks for FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $1000 at Betnow Sportsbook!

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