Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans
Thursday, August 13, 2026
8:00 PM ET, NRG Stadium
Sometimes handicapping a preseason game is a coin flip. Sometimes the numbers are so lopsided you have to slap the pick down and get out of your own way. This is the second one.
The Chargers are at Houston as 1.5-point underdogs with a total of 37.5. Most books have this total in the 36.5 to 37.5 range, which is one of the lower numbers on the entire Week 1 preseason board. The books know something. So do we.
Here’s the deal with DeMeco Ryans.
Since taking over as the Texans head coach in 2023, Ryans has coached ten preseason games. Nine of them have finished Under the total. Nine out of ten. That’s a 90% Under hit rate, and it’s one of the most extreme preseason totals trends of any active head coach in the league. This isn’t a two-year sample or a one-team fluke. This is three straight preseasons of Ryans running his squad in a way that suppresses scoring in August.
You can bet on how the coach on the sideline treats the preseason, and DeMeco Ryans treats it like a defensive scrimmage. His squad runs the ball, keeps the clock moving, protects starters, and doesn’t chase points. The result has been an Under hit rate of 90% — which is almost impossible to fade with a coaching sample size of ten games.
Jim Harbaugh on the other sideline has actually leaned the other way with the Chargers. His preseason totals record in Los Angeles is 5-2 to the Over, a 71.4% Over hit rate over his first two seasons. That’s a legitimate counter-trend and one worth acknowledging. Harbaugh’s Chargers have been more offensive-minded in August than his old San Francisco teams were, and that could push a little air back into this total.
But here’s the important part. Harbaugh’s sample size is seven games. Ryans’ is ten games, and Ryans is the home coach setting the tone in his own stadium. When you have a 90% Under trend against a 71% Over trend, the more extreme number wins the tiebreaker every time.
There’s also the total itself to consider. Most Week 1 preseason totals are hanging in the 37.5 to 39.5 range. This one is sitting at 36.5-37.5, which tells you the market has already partially adjusted for Ryans’ Under history. Some bettors would look at that and say the value is baked out. I disagree. A 90% trend over ten games is going to keep hitting until it doesn’t, and the books cutting a point off the total doesn’t change what DeMeco Ryans is going to do with his starters on Thursday night.
Add in the fact that the Texans’ offense was one of the worst red-zone units in football last season — 2.1 yards per play in the red zone, which was dead last in the NFL — and even if Houston moves the ball, they’re not necessarily converting drives into touchdowns. That’s an Under-friendly team profile before you even factor in the coaching.
I looked at the side too. Texans -1.5 at home is fine as a preseason play, but Chargers +1.5 has some value if you think Harbaugh treats August seriously and Houston sits its starters early. Neither side is compelling enough for me to lean on. The total is where the money is.
The Pick: Chargers/Texans Under 37.5
