Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons Analysis & Best Bet

by | Last updated Nov 15, 2022 | nfl

Chicago Bears (3-7 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS)

NFL Football Week 11

Date/Time: Sunday November 20th, 2022. 1:00 PM (EST)

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium Atlanta, GA


Betting Odds:

Point Spread: CHI +3/ATL -3 (Did you know that you could be wagering on games at -105 odds instead of -110? Do yourself a favor and start saving a ton of money by making the switch to BAS Sportsbook!)

Moneyline: CHI +145/ATL -150

Total: 50

Despite having one of the worst records in the NFC at 3-7 SU, the Chicago Bears have been fun to watch this season. In recent weeks, the Bears have posted point totals of 29, 32, and 30 in 3 straight games, which includes a pair of huge performances from QB Justin Fields. However, in each of those three games, the Bears lost the game outright, thus proving that for as good as the Bears have been on offense, the defense has been that much worse on the defensive side of the football. On Sunday, Chicago will try to culminate a better team effort when they travel to take on the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium as mere 3-point underdogs.

Last Thursday, the Falcons dropped their 2nd straight game of the season with a 25-15 defeat to the Panthers. The loss moved the Falcons to 4-6 SU and one game behind the Buccaneers in the NFC South. More importantly, it was the 3rd time in the last four games that the Falcons’ offense was held to 17 points or less. The once-thriving rushing attack has not been as strong in recent weeks, and the Falcons’ offensive production has suffered. Luckily for Atlanta, the match-up is much better this Sunday against a Chicago Bears defense that ranks (DVOA) 26th in the NFL against the run. As a result, the Falcons will get the nod as the slight home favorites as they look to get the ground game rolling again.

Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Analysis

I must admit that I was hoping to get the Falcons as underdogs this week in this match-up, and I don’t think that would have surprised anyone with the way the Bears have been racking up points. However, I do believe Atlanta deserves to be the favorite because this match-up definitely favors their style of play. For clarity, both of these offenses in Chicago and Atlanta rely heavily on the ground game. The Bears are heavily invested in the ground game with tailbacks Khalil Herbert and David Montgomery, who both have over 100 touches this season. However, Herbert is the only running back of the duo that has eclipsed a minimum of 60 yards in the last five games between the two backs. The lack of success on the ground has been overshadowed by Fields, who has racked up a ton of rushing yards in the last two games. However, I would argue that Fields’ tally of near 400 yards rushing over the last three games cannot be sustained.

If Fields has another eruption style of performance, I would be worried the Falcons would not have the offensive firepower to keep pace in the scoring department. After all, Atlanta is averaging just 21 points per game on the season. However, the Falcons are relentless in their efforts to run the football. Where most teams will give up on the run, Atlanta will have two tight end sets and heavy run packages to give runners Cordarrelle Patterson, Tyler Allgeier, and Caleb Huntley a chance to keep fresh legs on the field. The relentless rushing attack is a nightmare against a Chicago defense that has been nothing shy of “soft” against the run. If QB Marcus Mariota can add a few plays, I believe the Falcons could easily control the pace of this game and work it in their favor.

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Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends

  • The Bears are 1-6 SU in the last seven games
  • The Bears are 1-5 SU in the last six games on the road
  • The Bears are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 games against Atlanta
  • The Bears have hit the “under” in 9 of the last 11 games against Atlanta
  • The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in the last five games
  • The Falcons are 4-8 SU in the last 12 games
  • The Falcons are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 games at home
  • The Falcons have hit the “under” in 5 of the last seven games

Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Prediction

I really like the Falcons in this match-up and believe they will get the job done. However, I also like the under as I expect the game pace to be less favorable for both offenses. Consider both plays!

Jay’s Pick: Take the Bears -3. Bet your Week Eleven NFL predictions for FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus up to $500 by entering bonus promo code PREDICTEM on the Special Offers page at the oldest and most trusted sportsbook on the web —> Everygame!