Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Point Spread Bet
Chicago Bears (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) v. Green Bay Packers (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
NFL Week 2
When: Sunday, September 18 at 8:20pm ET
Where: Lambeau Field - Green Bay, WI
Point Spread: CHI +9.5/GB -9.5 (Bovada - If you live bet games, you gotta check out their platform! It’s all on one page, offers TONS of bets, isn’t clunky like most books and they process bets fast. No resubmitting bets because of lines changing and slow crappy software! They’ll give you a 50% bonus too!)
Over/Under Total: 51
The two oldest teams in the NFL square off on Sunday Night Football in what will be the 204th edition of the Bears-Packers rivalry. Chicago is not used to looking down on Green Bay during the Aaron Rodgers era, but the Bears were able to gut out a win in Week 1 while the Pack laid an opening egg for the second season in a row. Early defeats aren’t usually as damaging as late ones, but Green Bay certainly doesn’t want to drop to 0-2 with both losses coming to division foes. Chicago is not widely thought to be a playoff contender, but they found a way to win to beat a limited 49ers squad, and you would have to consider Green Bay limited on offense until they find a way to score without Davante Adams. The Packers have won each of the last six in this series, and Rodgers is 22-5 in his career against the Bears.
Green Bay has won eight of the last ten against the spread v. Chicago, including the last six in a row and each of the last four when the line has been -9.5 or greater. In 2021, Green Bay lost back-to-back ATS decisions just once, and they are 11-3 against the spread in their last fourteen games following a straight-up loss. Chicago is riding a five-game ATS losing streak against division foes and is 3-7 against the spread on the road. The Bears are just 1-5 ATS in the last six at Lambeau Field. Green Bay is routinely one of the public betting favorites each week, but early betting has seen nearly 65% of bets coming in on Chicago, with 54% of the public money on the Under. The Over is 4-1 in the last five between these two when they play in Green Bay.
2021 All Over Again?
Green Bay refuses to play starters in the preseason, and you have to believe that the lack of reps has led to abysmal starts in each of the last two seasons. Matt LaFleur wasn’t shy about pointing out that last week’s 23-7 loss to Minnesota shared a lot of negative similarities to the 38-3 loss to New Orleans in Week 1 last year. We will file that away for next season but let’s look at how it went for Green Bay in Week 2 and beyond. After that embarrassing defeat to the Saints, the Packers won their next seven in a row and didn’t lose a game against the spread until Week 10. They averaged 27 points per game over that span and beat several eventual playoff teams. Perhaps most importantly, Rodgers was able to put up an MVP campaign after essentially doing nothing in that first game. Green Bay will be looking for a similarly quick turnaround on Sunday Night, and they may lean on A.J. Dillon to control the game. In an otherwise poor offensive performance against the Vikings, Dillon showed he could be a lead back as he paced the team with 91 scrimmage yards and scored the only touchdown for the Pack. Chicago allowed 176 rushing yards to San Francisco, so look for Dillon to have another good day with Aaron Jones scheduled for more touches after averaging nearly ten yards per carry on just five totes. There was no clarification on who will replace Davante Adams as the #1 receiver in this offense, but the ball was spread around with Rodgers hitting ten different receivers on the day. Christian Watson dropped what would have been a 70-yard touchdown on the first play for Green Bay, and while that gaff got the full meme treatment online, the rookie did flash the breakaway speed that made him a high draft target. The offensive struggles got the headlines, but the defense was nearly as bad in allowing 395 total yards, with the highly touted secondary giving up 184 yards and two touchdowns to Justin Jefferson. Rashan Gary did get his first sack of the season after leading the team with 9.5 last year, but the pass rush overall was lacking, and Green Bay wound up minus-3 in the sack department. LB Krys Barnes will be out several weeks with a high ankle sprain, and LB Quay Walker is questionable after leaving last week with a shoulder injury.
Find a Way
Chicago pulled off a somewhat unique feat last week by winning with just 204 total yards gained. Typically a win with that few total yards would include a defensive or special teams score, but Chicago had neither, and what they lacked in consistency, they made up for in timely execution. Justin Fields threw for just 121 yards but threw two touchdowns and the Bears converted on both of their red zone trips. They forced two turnovers, including one interception of Trey Lance but didn’t look for a similar scenario this week as Rodgers has thrown just one interception against the Bears since 2016. Khalil Herbert was the best running back on Sunday and averaged five yards per carry while finding the end zone, but David Montgomery struggled with just 26 yards on 17 carries. There is probably not a scenario where Chicago keeps this close unless they are running the ball well, and the Bears do not want Fields with too many attempts considering he is 0-5 when throwing more than 20 times. Montgomery is still the best back and led the team in receptions last week but look for a little more Herbert with some designed runs by Fields as well. Fields completed just four passes to wide receivers last week, but two of them went for touchdowns, including Dante Pettis getting loose on a 55-yard score. Darnell Mooney is likely the best WR of a pedestrian group, but he was held to just eight receiving yards last week and will draw Jaire Alexander on Sunday. Dominique Robinson recorded 1.5 sacks last week to lead the team. He and Robert Quinn will get to work against a Green Bay offensive line that could be without David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins.
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Believe in the Bay
There was nearly nothing to like about Green Bay’s performance last week, and even though a slow start was somewhat predictable, not many saw a near-complete collapse. Sometimes, a single play can swing a game, and that missed connection from Rodgers to Watson took six points off the board, and it was a quick snowball from there. Shame on Green Bay for letting one play ruin their entire day, but you have to wonder how different that game would have gone with the score at 7-7. The crowd has soured on Green Bay, and most of the bets are with Chicago, but this is a flawed Bears team, and the public is overplaying Green Bay’s supposed demise. In a similar situation last year, Green Bay came out in Week 2 against Detroit and covered a -11.5 point spread at home. They should do the same to Chicago, and it all comes down to #12. In just the last four games against the Bears, Rodgers has thrown for 14 touchdowns and completed 75% of his passes. He owns the Bears until further notice, and there is enough offensive firepower to cover the -9.5 points against a weak offense. Look for the Packers to smarten up and get the still dynamic Aaron Jones the ball more. That could come via receptions out of the backfield if the Green Bay wide receivers are still finding their identity, but in any case, a more active Jones is a problem for Chicago. TE Robert Tonyan was second on the team in targets, and he could also be playing a larger role with Rodgers still unsure about his new wide receivers. There just isn’t enough on offense for Chicago, and they fall to Green Bay by a score of 24-13.
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