Pick Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions (3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS) vs. Chicago Bears (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS)
NFL Football Week 10
Date and Time: Sunday, November 11th, 1:00pm EST
Where: Soldier Field - Chicago, IL
By: Bob Clark, NFL Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: DET +6.5/CHI -6.5
Spread: CHICAGO BEARS -9
TAKEAWAYS FROM WEEK 9:
Week nine saw the Bears win and the Lions lose. Chicago improved to 5-3 on the season and Detroit goes the opposite way and now sits at 3-5. Chicago and Minnesota are tied for the NFC North division lead with Detroit and Green Bay biting at their heels just a game or so back. It appears that Chicago is the real deal and only seems to get better week after week. As for Detroit, they are just average at best… offense, defense, special teams, they are just…meh. Nonetheless, this weekend is actually a huge game in for the NFC North landscape. It is a tight race and a Detroit win will put THEM back in the hunt.
HOW THE PUBLIC IS BETTING DETROIT AND CHICAGO:
The line on this game has Chicago as a 6.5 point favorite. As of Wednesday morning, it was clear that the betting public was all in on the Chicago Bears. 63% of the documented action liked Chicago to cover and win this game outright. As for the total points of 46.5, 53% thinks it stays under while 47% says over the total.
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This is one of the NFL’s oldest rivalries. The series between these two franchises began way back in 1930 when the Lions were located in Ohio and played as the Portsmouth Spartans. These two teams have played at least once every season since then and Chicago owns the all time series lead with a record of 97-74-5. In recent history though, Detroit has won 9 of the last 10 against Chicago and in those 10 games, they have covered the spread 6 times. The Bears appear to be getting better though and this series could see a shift in dominance starting this Sunday.
From an injury standpoint, it appears that Detroit will have running back, Kerryon Johnson back while the Bears are again going to have a HUGE return with Khalil Mack back in the lineup. There are other minor injury concerns but with the exception of these two I just mentioned, I see nothing can change the landscape of this game from either team.
WHEN DETROIT HAS THE BALL:
Ever since Detroit drafted Matthew Stafford way back in 2008, they have been very pass happy. Hell, they went like 30 or something games without a 100 yard rusher. This season has been a tad different in the fact that they are balancing the offense better than years past. So far in 2018, the Lions are passing for 248 yards a game and rushing for 105 yards. Both numbers have this team barely in the top 20. This Sunday, the Lions must get a run game going. They will have their full stable of backs with Kerryon Johnson back and success on the ground is a must. If Chicago is able to stop the run with just their front line, this will make things very difficult for Stafford and the pass game. I have a feeling Detroit is going to not only try and run the ball but I predict a lot of screens and draw plays to keep the very talented Bears defense honest.
WHEN CHICAGO HAS THE BALL:
Are the Bears for real? Or are they fools gold? From a record and statistical standpoint they are for real. 4th in the NFL in points allowed at 19 a game, 5th in the NFL in points scored at almost 30 a game, and they are sitting atop the NFC North with a 5-3 record. However, look at their schedule. If this was college football, their “S.O.S.” would be a joke…total joke. Buccaneers, Seahawks, Cardinals, Bills, and Dolphins. Yeah, these dudes should be winning games. With that said though, they have taken care of business in most situations and this week I could see them doing the same. On offense, I see Chicago trying to take advantage of their run game. The Bears rank 7th in the NFL in rushing and they are not relying on one guy. The tandem of Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard has been a success and I see them continuing to carry the load. Second year QB, Mitch Trubisky, has played well so far this season but he cannot beat anyone on his own just yet. Trubisky has passed for almost 2000 yards with 14 touchdowns but he has also thrown 7 interceptions. If under pressure, the kid WILL make mistakes. This is another reason I like Chicago to try and establish a strong run game early on.
I really do not like Chicago in this game. I think they are getting better as a team and organization, but based on their extremely soft schedule and their bad run against Detroit as of late, I think Detroit not only covers the points, I like the Lions to win outright. Detroit will win a sloppy 23-17 type game. Detroit has won straight up seven of the last eight and no matter how much more talented a team is or is not, that gets in your heads. Detroit wins…and obviously covers.
Weather will be perfect football weather. The forecast calls for mostly sunny skies with a low of 28 degrees and a high of 46. This COULD give Chicago a bit of an advantage but not much.
Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: TAKE THE DETROIT LIONS PLUS THE POINTS